The Prism - Round 10 2015

Hot topic

It is hard to ignore the openness of this year's competition. You only have to follow the Form Guide (see below) to observe the changing fortunes of the teams week to week. The Knights were unbeatable for a month and the Cowboys couldn't buy a win. These teams have seen major reversals of form.

Most armchair experts (me included) had pencilled in a Chooks v Rabbits grand final before the season kicked off. There were also the "definite" top eights, including Manly and Bulldogs, and the "minnows" were expected to be the Dragons and Raiders. The current table makes a mockery of this.

It is worth looking back at the teams results over the last 17 years since the NRL started in 1998:

There have been 10 different premiers and only three teams that have not appeared in a decider. However, Souths who were previously underachievers are the reigning premiers. This should give a great deal of hope to the teams without a premiership.

Compare this to the largest professional leagues over the same period of time:

• EPL (England) - 4 different winners from a 20 team comp with relegation / promotion
• La Liga (Spain) - 5 from 20
• Serie A (Italy) - 5 from 20
• NBA - 7 from 30 teams
• MLB - 9 from 30
• NFL - 11 from 32
• AFL - 10 from 18

Most of these leagues have super clubs with almost unlimited budgets. There is a real risk that the NRL will go the same way if they don't bring into check the farcical third party agreements. Some teams seem to be able to keep signing stars to their impressive rosters whilst others struggle to keep their home grown talent. The NRL prides itself on having an open competition, but the current practice may lead to an EPL type competition.

Predictions

Last week I correctly picked 7/8. A last ditch try to Shaun Johnson cost me a perfect round. Here are my picks for this week.

Bulldogs vs. Roosters @ ANZ Stadium
This will be a tough encounter, but the Bulldogs are still missing some talent. Roosters by 4

Cowboys vs. Broncos @ 1300Smiles Stadium
Big brother verses big brother. The Cowboys will be looking forward to this one. Cowboys by 4

Eels vs. Warriors @ Pirtek Stadium
The Eels have just completed their third "win-loss-loss". That means that they are due for a win. Eels by 4

Titans vs. Sharks @ Cbus Super Stadium
The Titans will want to erase their last up nightmare. Titans by 6

Storm vs. Rabbitohs @ AAMI Park
This will be a blockbuster with two teams wanting to make a statement. Storm by 4

Dragons vs. Raiders @ WIN Stadium
Can the Dragons start their own hoodoo? Dragons by 2

Knights vs. Tigers @ Hunter Stadium
The Knights are in a funk. They must win at home. Knights by 4

Sea Eagles vs. Panthers @ Brookvale Oval
The Sea Eagles are fighting their way off the bottom of the table. Sea Eagles by 4

Form Guide

The form guide is based on a predictive model that gives more weight to recent performances. There is no adjustment for personal bias, injury or their position on the table.

1. Cowboys (+1) : would not be denied at home to pick up their 6th win on the trot
2. Broncos (+1) : got out of gaol to stay on top of the table
3. Raiders (+2) : very impressive win at home
4. Storm (+2) : back in the winner's circle
5. Dragons (-4) : picked up their first loss in 7 rounds
6. Titans (-2) : ugly loss in the capital
7. Rabbitohs (+5) : back in the winner's circle with Reynolds, but will again be tested without him
8. Sea Eagles (+5) : their fight has returned
9. Warriors (+5) : snatched a late victory against the Sharks
10. Roosters (+6) : have finally picked up a win after four losses
11. Panthers (-4) : late loss against the table leaders
12. Tigers (-4) : flogged by the resurgent Roosters
13. Sharks (-4) : pipped at the post at home
14. Bulldogs (-4) : continue to pay for their previous indiscretions
15. Eels (-4) : win-loss-loss x3
16. Knights (-1) : the horror show continues

Composite Team

Last week's composite team were made up of long serving one club players (I considered Menzies to be loyal although he played for the failed Joint Venture). Can you work out the theme for the team below?

1. Billy Slater
2. Ken Irvine
3. Reg Gasnier
4. Bob Fulton
5. Hazem El Masri
6. Terry Lamb
7. Allan Langer
8. Frank Burge
9. Phil Blake
10. Bob McCarthy
11. Darren Smith
12. Jason Croker
13. Steve Menzies
14. Greg Inglis
15. Brad Fittler
16. Andrew Ettingshausen
17. Wendell Sailor

This team has a speedy backline, scheming halves and a mobile pack. The bench is a little light but full of stars. Predicted placing in 2015 table: 10th

Flash Back

This week's Flash Back was a speedy outside back who played for the Dragons in the 1980's. Brian Johnston played rugby union whilst he was studying then signed with St George in 1980.

Johnston played 20 games in each of his first two seasons, but was limited to only 7 games in 1982. He made the 1981 NSW Firsts team against the team Captain-Coached by Arthur Beetson, winning 10-2. He debuted for NSW in the 1984 State of Origin match, scoring 2 tries in their 22-12 win over the maroons.

The 1985 season was a good one for the Dragons. Johnston played well in the first half of the year before missing the rest of the regular season. He returned on the bench in the winning major semi-final against Canterbury, but again succumbed to injury and missed the 1985 decider.

Johnston was again selected to play for NSW in 1986 and then played in all four games in the 1987 series, which included the "exhibition" match in Los Angeles. In 1987 he went one step further and made the Australian team off the bench against NZ. The Kangaroos were shock losers 6-13 in the mid-season test at Lang Park.

Johnston was made captain of the Dragons in 1989 and was recalled in game 3 of the State of Origin series. He retired in 1990 due to injury after 10 years with the Dragons. He scored 61 tries in 167 games.

Johnston became the club's Chief Executive in 1996 and resigned in 1999 due to ill health. He will be remembered as a speedy outside back who epitomised the club during the 1980's.