Panthers v Broncos preview
82 mins ago | Rhys Sullivan
Many readers will have noticed in this section a regular mention of team ratings. The ratings relate to basic areas of the game that are indicators of performance. Three simple ones known to most league followers are:
1) Points Scored (For),
2) Points Conceded (Against) and
3) the difference between the two (+/-) for each team.
Other areas include how many tackles each team misses in a match, how many penalties are conceded and so on. With eight rounds to be played there is enough data on each team to rank their performances, and I have chosen to rate them in 12 areas. The BEST team is rated 1 and WORST team rated 16 in each area. Thus it's possible for a team to score just 12 points because they are rated best in every area and at the other end of the scale 192 for being the worst in every area.
With every weekend's synopsis (until the finals) I will list each match and alongside each team their (pre-match) rating. Obviously this is not rocket science, I'm no genius and statisticians don't make tackles or score tries, but the figures can tell us how a team compares to their opponents. Remember the smaller the overall score the higher a team is rated.
Parramatta Eels (137) v Canterbury Bulldogs (87)
This match was listed as a home match for Parramatta, but they were paid a bonus to play the match at the Homebush ANZ Stadium instead. Given how much better they seem to play at their home ground with a smaller but more vocal and intimidating home crowd, it seemed like an odd decision to give up that advantage.
The first half was a stop-start affair and I think everyone was waiting for either team to get into some sort of rhythm. The Bulldogs almost grabbed an early try but Captain James Graham was ruled to be in front of the kicker. Both teams seemed to be fighting with the referees and the whistle blowers were winning the arguments. After 20 minutes of this Bulldog half Trent Hodgkinson stepped between two defenders just on halfway and fed the ball to Frank Pritchard, who scored without an Eels player in sight. The try was converted for a 6-0 score. Parramatta had five or six sets inside the Canterbury red zone but came up short, until a series of flat passes saw the ball reach Sami Radradra who grounded the ball wide out. The conversion was missed and a sloppy first half ended with the Bulldogs leading 6-4.
The second half was all Canterbury. They didn't score at will but they were able to break the line regularly while Parramatta seemed lost in attack. Added to the Eels problems in attack, the Bulldog defence was strong and just kept turning them back. At the 48th minute Frank Pritchard caught a low level bomb and touched down for his second try. Four minutes later after a series of passes inside the Eels twenty swept the ball from left to right, Sam Perrett reversed direction and passed to Josh Jackson, who ran between two defenders and strolled seven metres to score. With the conversion it was 18-4. At the 64th minute Bulldog fullback Brett Morris caught a last tackle kick (from Parramatta) inside his 20m line and then dodged his way past Eels players, who had been on attack, and found himself with no-one in front of him. He raced the last 50m with only his brother Josh and team mate Trent Hodgkinson for company. With 15 minutes remaining the score was 24-4 and the competition points were in the bag. Importantly, the Bulldogs had ‘butchered' three other clear scoring opportunities while the Eels had no attacking highlights to look back on. In the final minute Curtis Rona (17 tries) scored to give Canterbury a 28-4 win and make sure that his wing opponent Sami Radradra (17 tries) got no advantage in the "leading" try scorer stakes.
Melbourne Storm (95) v Penrith Panthers (125)
Two weeks ago, Penrith were on the cusp of breaking into the top 8, despite their horrendous year with injury to key players like Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace. With matches pending against serious finals contenders like the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm, Penrith fans and others would be able to judge their team's chance of playing finals football this year by their performance in these two matches. They lost the match against the Roosters but (apart from poor defence) it wasn't too bad. The game against the Storm was a different matter, as they were wiped out 52-10.
The Storm scored ten tries, five in each half. Cooper Cronk demonstrated how important he is to Melbourne's success, scoring their first (5th minute) and fifth (37th minute) tries and guiding his team to a 26-0 score at half time. Together with his 5/8th Blake Green (1 try and 2 try assists), Cronk led his team for 69 minutes adding 2 try assists to his stats for the day. Meanwhile Captain Superb Cameron Smith, playing his 300th match for the Storm, also laid on 3 tries for team mates.
No team would play without Billy Slater at fullback (given the choice), but tonight's demonstration showed that Melbourne can do so. Every match they play with Cameron Munster as custodian will add to their confidence (and his) as the finals approach.
Sadly for Penrith they were out of their depth against Melbourne but they do contribute to their own situation via their abominable missed tackle count. For the third week running they missed over 40 tackles and this week made twice as many errors as the Storm. Penrith had just 39% of overall possession and in only 69% of those sets did they get to the last tackle. No team with stats like those could have competed with Melbourne, let alone beat them on their home turf. Next week they welcome the Raiders to Pepper Park and both teams will be desperate to keep their finals hopes alive.
Canberra Raiders (96) v Cronulla Sharks (101)
The Raiders and Sharks are both outsiders for the top 8 but both can put the frighteners into the more fancied teams - Cronulla because of their structure and strength through the middle, and Canberra because of their wonderful try scoring ability. They faced each other on a Saturday afternoon in Canberra with opposing styles on show.
At half time the Sharks lead 12-4 having taken two of the four major try scoring opportunities they created, while the Raiders couldn't get their attack organised, with poor passes and drop balls at crucial stages. Both had made six errors but the Sharks had 57% of the possession and completed 76% of their sets. As Raiders coach Ricky Stuart said, "we played poorly and gave them a leg up".
The second forty was full of chaos and controversy with the Sharks grabbing a win in extra time via a Valentine Holmes field goal. However the home team really did let the match slip through their hands. They outscored Cronulla grabbing 16 points in the half to lead by 2 after a penalty at the 75th minute and should have locked it up. But an error inside their own half gave the visitors possession.
As the hooter was set to blow, Sharks hooker Michael Ennis kicked the ball into the in-goal and prop Andrew Fifita grounded the ball for his second try (or so he thought). The on-field referee ruled a try and the home crowd went from joy to despair but then the video referee overruled the decision and Canberra fans and coaching staff went crazy with delight. To the amazement of all concerned Cronulla were then awarded a penalty, they kicked the goal and the match was tied 20-20. Both teams had one chance to kick a field goal and the Sharks succeeded, final score Sharks 21 - Raiders 20.
Newcastle Knights (117) v Gold Coast Titans (143)
Sorry but I don't get paid well enough to watch (to the end) the rubbish served up in this match. Before tonight one team was in 16th position and the other 14th. The small crowd should get their money back for staying despite appalling weather and a one sided match. When Danny Levi scored a converted try for Newcastle (their 5th) at the 53rd minute, to take the score to 30-2, I turned off the pay TV and left early for a dinner engagement. Apparently the match carried on for another 27 minutes but the score remained unchanged.
The Titans will likely finish last in 2015 and they surely could not think that they are entitled to anything better. After 80 minutes at Hunter Stadium tonight they had committed 16 errors, missed 35 tackles and completed just 21 sets out of 38.
The home team, Newcastle, won tonight but given the poor quality of their opponents, I would not be writing home about it. Perhaps if they are able to defeat either South Sydney next week or St George in round 21, they will have a story to tell.
Finally, in case you hadn't checked, Newcastle (not the Gold Coast) were the team running last before tonight, having won just once since March 28th, when they led the competition with four wins from four matches.
Tonight's win and a couple more in the next 7 weeks, should see them avoid the wooden spoon.
St George Dragons (90) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (97)
I am sorry to report that due to other commitments I was not able to watch this match or catch the replay.
Reports from my colleagues suggest that the Rabbitohs showed some of the dominance they played with earlier in the year (in winning 24-8) and sadly for supporters of the Big Red V, their sixth loss in a row, while not their worst, was the most costly because they finally lost their position in the top 8.
After round 17 I wrote that three losses in a row would be diabolical for the Dragons and the first two have now been lost. Obviously their season is not over but as many coaches remind their teams, losing (like winning) can be habit forming.
Next week the Dragons travel to Melbourne fighting for a win from outside the top 8. In round 22 they play the Warriors in New Zealand and after that travel to Brisbane for a Friday night match. Finals football might not be part of the Dragons program in 2015, after looking almost a certainty at the half way mark.
Sydney Roosters (73) v NZ Warriors (83)
The Roosters were too strong for the warriors in winning 24-0, but as New Zealand Coach Andrew McFadden commented, his team did not give up on the match, rather they stayed in the contest for the full 80 minutes.
The match was played in glorious conditions on a sunny Sunday afternoon in Sydney and as with the fans in Brisbane, Sydney's league lovers flocked to a match played in the traditional timeslot.
It seems ONLY the television stations, who for now tell the NRL when and where they play, enjoy night football. The fans, players and coaches all know that the best football is played in daylight. The fans say that they prefer games at the weekend, especially those with children who want their kids to be able to attend rugby league matches and NOT have to get up for school after travelling home as late as 10.30 at night. Of course, as they players, coaches and fans have little say, Monday night and soon Thursday night matches will be part of the NRL program. One night soon, the NRL and the TV stations will stage a night match and no one will attend. I wonder what those who run the game will do then.
Anyway back to the match.
After a tight first 20 minutes, the Roosters scored three tries in 10 minutes (22nd, 26th and 32nd minutes). At 18-0 the half time score did not reflect how close the play was but the Roosters took their chances while the Warriors, did not.
The Roosters forwards built a solid platform but 5/8th James Maloney and Centre Blake Ferguson were dominant in their positions with 23 tackles, 5 line breaks, 2 try assists and 2 tries between them. Ferguson has improved as each month has gone by and yesterday gave his opponent Solomone Kata a lesson he'll not soon forget.
The second half started with the Maloney try, admittedly off a final pass from Michael Jennings that commentators thought went forward, but with the conversion the score moved out to 24-0 and didn't change after that. Most league followers would have expected the Warriors (based on matches earlier in the season) to fold their tent, but they didn't and for the next 37 minutes they were as strong as the Roosters. Next week New Zealand welcome Manly to Mount Smart and as one of four teams on 22 points, they cannot afford to slip.
Brisbane Broncos (52) v Wests Tigers (136)
At half time the Tigers were heading for defeat with just 36% of the possession. The score was, what anyone would expect with such an imbalance, Brisbane 26 Wests 0. The Tigers had already made 40 tackles more than Brisbane and missed 21 along the way. While Lachlan Maranta (7th minute) and Jack Reed (40th) had topped and tailed the try scoring, it was the Brisbane forwards who put their team in charge. Their dominance in the middle was rewarded with two tries to Alex Glenn (18th and 37th minutes) and one to Jarrod Wallace (27th).
The second half started with the Tigers launching a fightback scoring three tries in the first 13 minutes. The first was scored by bench player Ava Seumanufagai (45th minute) charging onto a short pass. Manaia Cherrington then scored from dummy half (50th minute) and three minutes later Tigers 5/8th Mitchell Moses backed up to score a try that was started by James Tedesco on his 20 metre line and the Brisbane lead had been cut to just 10 points.
The next 15 minutes were an arm wrestle until Lachlan Maranta crossed for his second try and when he scored again in the 75th minute, the Broncos were home. At the 78th minute Corey Oates scored off a Justin Hodges pass from dummy half, putting the icing on the cake. The final score was 42-16 but Tigers coach Jason Taylor would likely be more worried by the 40 missed tackles, as they provide teams with opportunities that should not have.
Manly Sea Eagles (138) v North Queensland Cowboys (62)
Many times this year I have noted the contribution of the Melbourne spine (1,6,7 and 9) and tonight it's impossible to go past the contribution of the Cowboy spine of Lachlan Coote, Michael Morgan, Jonathan Thurston and Jake Granville.
No Cowboy match is written up without praise for Thurston, thought by some to be the best player in the world of rugby league, but Lachlan Coote in defence was superb, Granville cut Manly up time after time from dummy half and Morgan was part of an excellent offensive performance by the top 4 destined team.
The first half was topped and tailed by tries to Cowboys winger Antonio Winterstein, the first from a perfect Thurston kick and the second following a left side attack, finished with a 40 metre run and shaking off an attempted tackle by Manly fullback Brett Stewart. At half time it was 20-6.
Five minutes into the second half Manly Fullback Brett Stewart scored a try but there would be no more for the Sea Eagles. The score stayed at 20-12 for 15 minutes but when Michael Morgan scored (60th Minute) and Jake Granville went over untouched (66th Minute) an 18 point gap was established and remained unchanged. Final Score Cowboys 30 - Sea Eagles 12.
Next week the Sea Eagles are away to New Zealand (R20) then take on Brisbane (R21) and South Sydney (22) in consecutive home matches. After tonight they are six points behind 8th placed Cronulla and even if they do defeat those three teams they have to rely on Penrith, Parramatta, Canberra, St George and Cronulla to all lose one two or three of their matches, as well. Good luck with that.
Current rankings:
Brisbane Broncos (52)
North Queensland Cowboys (62)
Sydney Roosters (73)
New Zealand Warriors (83)
Canterbury Bulldogs (87)
St George Dragons (90)
Melbourne Storm (95)
Canberra Raiders (96)
South Sydney Rabbitohs (97)
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (101)
Newcastle Knights (117)
Penrith Panthers (125)
Wests Tigers (136)
Parramatta Eels (137)
Manly Sea Eagles (138)
Gold Coast Titans (143)