Reynolds Kicks Cowboys to loss
4 hours ago | Andrew Ferguson
The 2016 season is set to be one of the closest on record.
Whereas in previous years it has often been easy to predict those who won't make the finals, that's not the case in 2016, whereby I think only three teams - Newcastle, Wests Tigers and Gold Coast are unrealistic chances of making the top eight.
As always rugby league fans fancy themselves as an expert when it comes to tipping the teams that will make or miss the NRL finals and I'm no different.
A quick reminder on how I did last year when asked to do this very article? A credible 5 from 8 with only Panthers, Warriors and Sea Eagles showing me up by having less than impressive seasons - for various reasons.
Oddly enough all three teams mentioned above, again sit in my predicted top eight for 2016.
Normally on average, three top eight teams drop out of the top eight the next year, but will that trend continue in 2016? I have four of last year's teams missing the eight including two big guns (Rabbitohs, Roosters) in recent times along with the Dragons and Bulldogs, replaced by the Eels, Warriors, Panthers and Sea Eagles.
So enjoy the reasons behind my 2016 Ladder Predictions.
North Queensland Cowboys - 1st
The Broncos were one tackle away from a grand final victory in 2015 but it's the stability of the Cowboys roster that stands out more for mine. An added bonus is the availability once more of Tautau Moga after missing virtually all of 2015 to a serious knee injury plus a crop of NRL capable NYC players headed by Gideon Mosby and Coen Hess actually strengthens their depth.
An injury-free Cowboys side will become the first team to go back-to-back since the 1992-93 Broncos.
Brisbane Broncos - 2nd
They are the overwhelming competition favourites and have managed to replace Justin Hodges with James Roberts and have kept the core of their 2015 squad together.
However the Broncos depth isn't possibly as strong as the Cowboys and after what should be another strong start to the season, could suffer if injuries strike during or after Origin period.
Melbourne Storm - 3rd
A top four side minus Billy Slater for the bulk of 2015, could be even better in 2016 after the emergence of Cameron Munster and the surprising form of Blake Green as Cooper Cronk's foil in the halves.
Cronulla Sharks - 4th
A new halves pairing in Maloney and Townsend plus the likes of Valentine Holmes, Ben Barba or jack Bird to play fullback certainly gives the Sharks some creativity and some strike power.
They should have made the top four in 2015 and with the new halves recruited along with Jesse Sene-Lefao and Joseph Paulo, gives the Cronulla roster an even stronger look and an ability to go deep into the finals, with a grand final appearance a possibility.
Parramatta Eels - 5th
Their recruitment drive is arguably the best going into 2016. Beau Scott, Michael Gordon, Clint Gutherson and Kieran Foran give the Eels some much needed experience and potency in the backs. Then throw in the late signing of Michael Jennings and the Eels should be challenging for a top four spot, let alone challenging for the top eight.
The Foran signing particularly could very well bring the best out of Corey Norman, who has been constrained in the past by the lack of a quality halves partner.
New Zealand Warriors - 6th
Any team that now has Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Shaun Johnson and Isaac Luke as the core of its spine, really should be playing finals footy. If not then the coach Andrew McFadden surely has to go given the ruthless nature of the Warriors owners in recent times.
Penrith Panthers - 7th
Their season 2015 as wrecked before a ball was kicked with nearly 20 players having had off-season surgery that often prevented a decent pre-season build-up.
Fast forward 12 months under new coach Anthony Griffin and with many players having their toughest pre-season in some time, the Panthers have a better chance to hit the ground running in 2016.
Griffin finds himself in a similar position to when he was at the Broncos; having to mould and develop a side that was largely produced in the Holden Cup.
A strong start and a much kinder injury run may just allow a talented but relatively inexperienced roster to finish just inside the top eight.
Manly Sea Eagles - 8th
Recruited some star power with Dylan Walker, Martin Taupau, Lewis Brown, Nate Myles and Apisai Koroisau and somehow managed to retain Daly Cherry-Evans. The big question is how well Dylan Walker, normally a centre at the NRL level, fits into the five-eighth spot and partners up with Cherry-Evans.
It might take longer than everyone expects but the Sea Eagles will soar home to finish in eighth spot.
Canberra Raiders - 9th
The Raiders have brought in Aiden Sezer, Adam Clydesdale, Elliot Whitehead and now Joseph Tapine to an already impressive roster but there's something there that tells me that they will fall short where it counts. Their inability to close out games particularly those close games needs to improve if they are going to take the next step and make the top eight.
Canterbury Bulldogs - 10th
They've released the likes of Frank Pritchard, Trent Hodkinson and Tim Lafai, and only recruited of note Will Hopoate, the Bulldogs could well struggle to make the eight if injury strikes.
Sydney Roosters - 11th
A ball hasn't been kicked in anger in the competition proper and it's been rough sailing for the Roosters already. The loss of Tuivasa-Sheck, Maloney and Jennings, injuries to Boyd Cordner and Jarrod Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce likely to be stood down for six rounds is hardly the ideal start for Trent Robinson's team.
St George Illawarra Dragons - 12th
The Dragons have bought up big in the backs with Tim Lafai and Kurt Mann and possess one of the most dangerous 1-5's in the competition but the loss of Trent Merrin (Penrith) and recruit Mose Masoe to a serious knee injury could see the Dragons struggle in the forwards to make the eight. Much will depend on how Russell Packer responds to the opportunity of playing NRL footy for the first time in some time if the Dragons are to repeat their 2015 efforts.
South Sydney Rabbitohs - 13th
Souths welcome back Sam Burgess in what is no doubt a coup signing but the question is have they sold the farm in the process? Plenty of big name departures with little coming into to replace the likes of Isaac Luke, Dylan Walker, Glenn Stewart, Chris McQueen and Tim Grant.
Damien Cook, who impressed all late in the season for Canterbury is a handy acquisition but very little else to speak of by way of recruitment.
Newcastle Knights - 14th
It's a rebuild year as the Knights get set to unleash their next crop of youngsters into the NRL. Plenty to like about the likes of Feeney, Fitzgibbon, (Pat) Mata'utia and the Saifiti brothers but they will need time to develop as NRL players.
Aside from Trent Hodkinson and Pauli Pauli, the Knights have recruited little and lost big in terms of NRL experience. A bridge too far for new coach Nathan Brown in year one of his tenure as coach but the signs look bright for the future.
Gold Coast Titans - 15th
Popular pick for wooden spooners and with plenty of reasons too having missed out on Cherry-Evans plus losing Myles, Sezer and Roberts, having boom rookie half Kane Elgey succumb to a season-ending injury and the dramas go on but this club does seem to show fight and with the recruits they brought in they have a chance to lay the foundations for a brighter future given some of the talent that is starting to come through.
Wests Tigers - 16th
They looked a rabble for much of the pre-season with the Farah saga, lost arguably their best forward in Martin Taupau and despite the likes of Galloway depart the club early to alleviate cap pressure, they still look like a club that continues to be hamstrung by salary cap constraints that makes you wonder just how much their crop of young talents are holding the club to ransom.
I can't see a way out for Taylor and the Wests Tigers, and the wooden spoon beckons at Leichhardt (or wherever home truly is for the Tigers these days).