Round 12 NRL preview

Welcome to Round 12 everyone, following on from our first interstate clash of the season. In years gone by rep fixtures have sapped the players taking part of their full powers at club level, resulting in clubs with fewer reps coming back to the field. But I think this factor is beginning to wane a little as athletes become more professional and their bodies adapt to the rigours of midweek footy.

But irrespective of how you look at it, this week is the first in a while containing several clear favourites with the bookies and that fact alone will have punters racing for the form guides this week. We?re also in the midst of a trend back towards the home sides, with this week?s match-ups placing the visitors firmly behind the 8-ball with the exception of the Roosters and Tigers, but more on them later.

Last week I shot 4 out of 6 to sit on 47 from 76 (62%) and I?m in desperate need of a perfect round.

Knights v Dragons

Friday night footy kicks-off in style with two clubs that are fast developing a pathological hatred of one another and it all revolves around one man: Joey. He?s been injured against the Dragons a few times (knee & back) but secretly I think he admires the club. Partly I think it?s the steelworks down at Wollongong and partly the cherished Red V that they wear. And after the clinical disassembly he performed on them in round 5, I think the Dragons might be a little less cordial towards Newcastle as well.

I wouldn?t go as far as to say that Saints have the wood on them, but they certainly boast an impressive record, especially at Marathon Stadium. They have won 6 out of the 8 contests there between the two clubs and the games are always close, with Newcastle?s last victory against them at home coming after Joey landed a goal from the sideline after the buzzer.

Onto the form and even though the Dragons are coming off the bye I don?t think that will be a huge factor. Cooper is still out but Bailey returns adding some much needed respect to the forward pack and with Gasnier the only player backing up they would be pretty fresh. Their last game against the Warriors didn?t leave their faithful overflowing with confidence however.

The Knights are looking ok though without setting the world on fire. The key will be Buderus?s involvement in the game ? he is crucial to their chances along with Joey. I think if he can back up well and providing Simpson does likewise then we?ll have a real game on our hands. Kurt Gidley at fullback could be a weakness but I?m going to tip the home side in a tight one. The Dragons present reasonable value at $2.50.

Cowboys v Raiders

Super Saturday gets underway in Townsville as the Raiders travel from the chilly confines of the Nation?s Capital to the humid surroundings of our beloved FNQ. This is a happy hunting ground for the Green Machine with a 67% winning ratio up there. I fear things will be very different this time around.

No Jason Smith spells big trouble for Canberra as they struggle for guidance around the park. It is a good time for youngster Todd Carney to put his hand up and have a red-hot go at cementing a starting position in the veteran?s absence. A regular at halfback, when he gets a go that is, Carney will play pivot this week and they?ll need him to fire. The rest of the side is looking shabby with the Schif, Withers, Woolford and Tongue needing to put in another 10% if they are to stand any sort of chance.

The Cowboys were one of the more affected teams by the Origin, losing O?Donnell through a hand injury. They?ve got sufficient cover on the bench, but I doubt Scott and Webb will be starting. Norton?s due for a big game and I actually like Smith at five-eighth despite this being a fairly odd position to play him in. He has good hands and gets the ball to Thurston early, allowing the unpredictable halfback to run the show the way he wants. This combination has proved to be by far the best for the Cowboys, with Payne adding good yards out of dummy-half and the wily Bowen?s at the back tearing things up.

The Cowboys will win and win well.

Broncos v Bulldogs

A great follow-up game here with the Bulldogs heading north to tackle the Broncos at Lang Park. Interestingly, Canterbury has lost only 3 times to Brisbane in the past 10 games, with one ending in a draw.

Why is this I hear you ask?

Well, Canterbury play a stifling and irritating style of footy that can often upset and dismantle teams with a more fluid approach to the game. Brisbane are definitely one such team and struggle to get over the advantage line against Canterbury. Mostly this is because they push the ball wide only to be stymied by the up-and-in defence of the Doggies.

We?ll have to wait and see what happens in this one but there are a few positional clashes that are entirely agreeable. Sonny Bill and Tonga v Hodges and Tate (possibly Berrigan). Throw in the power Tupou for the Broncos and the cunning of El Masri in the blue and white and we could be in for a real show.

But that?s only half the fun. The fuse has been lit for a fervid battle in the in the forwards with Thaiday, Thorn and Civoniceva against Mason, O?Meley and Asotasi. Sadly Shane Webcke is sitting this one out.

I said at the top I?d be favouring the home teams and this is another case. Both sides have a few guys backing up but this shouldn?t be a problem except for Tate who?s under a cloud. Sherwin?s presence last week visibly improved the Dogs but they fell away towards the end and they have failed to really put teams away at times this year. That?s one thing Brisbane are capable of doing and I?m sticking with them.

Sharks v Warriors

We trundle down to the Shire for the final Saturday game this week where Cronulla host the Warriors. The Sharkies contain a few Kiwi players themselves but you can make it one less after Monday morning?s idiotic display by Tevita Latu. He was travelling pretty well off the bench for the Sharks and you?ve got to wonder how his sacking will affect the team.

New Zealand had a good victory over an ordinary Wests Tigers outfit and pretty much own the joint venture club this year. But their only win in Australia in 2006 has been at the expense of a Johns-less Newcastle team. This isn?t great but I have noticed them improving recently. Rovelli has given them direction in the halves with Mannering and Martin in the centres playing well also. Their forward pack looks strong on paper but they very seldom show up two weeks in a row and usually have brain snaps away from home.

None of this bodes particularly well for Auckland as they look to climb the ladder. I think they?re in for a tough night against the Sharks who had a hiccup against the Bulldogs last week. They are missing Thompson, who?s been great for them so far, and with Kimmorley back they have someone to focus the plays around. I did find it funny that he returned after four consecutive wins to lead them to defeat last week. I can?t see this happening here given the form of Gallen and co. and here?s hoping that Villa the Gorilla gets a crack at his old team just to add some extra spice. New Zealand are paying $2.60 if anyone?s interested in a dash of mild masochism.

Storm v Panthers

Olympic Park opens its gates for the first time during the day this season as the Panthers travel to our Southern capital. Straight up you?ve got to take the Storm in this one as they are generally hard to beat down there but ironically the last club to beat the Storm at home was Penrith in round 15 last year. Since then Melbourne have won 8 on the trot there.

The Panthers have been rocked by another injury to Craig Gower. He?s had surgery and it?ll be a few weeks before he takes the field one would think. Without him they struggle and whilst Luke Lewis helped out well against the Eels last week, he?s not an ideal replacement. They managed to jag a win by digging deep, but the well is empty here my friends.

The Storm will blow them off the park and the bookies aren?t showing them at $1.30 for nothing. With the return of Inglis, Smith, King and Johnson they will be a much stronger unit and make up for the feeble display at Brooky last week.

Eels v Roosters

The Bondi boys set aside their decaf-soy-latte?s for the afternoon and pile into a bus destined for the western pastures of Parramatta Stadium.

The Eels are presumably still gripped by a crisis if you believe everything you read in the papers. I think Taylor will have them much more focussed this week and they will push the Roosters. They?ve got Grothe and Tahu backing up in the three-quarters and Hindmarsh also playing his second game in five days. He?s usually fine but with the loss of Stringer to retirement he?ll be asked to do more and I?m not sure he can cope. Junior Rocket assumes the custodial duties and even though he?s reliable, he?s no Wade McKinnon.

Easts are looking much better on paper than the side that narrowly defeated the Bunnies last week. I think they played well within themselves and with players coming back in vital positions they ought to put in a good show. One player to be wary of in this game is Brett Finch, but not because I think he?ll win it for them. If he?s not careful he might leave his head up in the clouds and forget about reality for a moment. I?m backing the Roosters in this one and strangely they start the game as $2.00 outsiders. I?d look to give away a small margin and collect handsomely.

Rabbitohs v Tigers

This game has the potential to be the worst of the round after several blockbuster conflicts having been liberally sprinkled throughout weekend. Both last start losers, the Tigers will be looking to stay in touch with the leaders after a humiliating loss to the Warriors last week. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs are attempting to reverse a season of misery with their first victory.

I think the Bunnies have a good opportunity to spring an upset here but I?ve said that a couple of times this season. On form they actually are the better side and I thought they were a bit unfortunate last week. They tried their hearts out and came up short yet again. Team-wise, I?m not a fan of Ben Rogers and John Sutton is wasted in the centres as a result. If you?re going to stick him there at least pass the ball to him with some space.

Onto the Tigers and I bet they were caned at training this week. Sheensey is a grump when he loses and I wouldn?t blame him after what they offered their fans last week. I think the loss will motivate them to come out firing in particular some of the forwards who aren?t dominating on the fringes of the ruck as they used to. The general kicking of Prince should provide the Tigers with better field position.

Initially I had the Rabbitohs ticked but I?ve changed my mind even though they enjoy a 4 from 7 winning record over the joint venture club. I just can?t do it to myself so I?m sticking with the Tigers. I will indulge in a nice little emotional hedge though, slipping a lazy 20 bucks on the Rabbitohs who are paying a juicy $2.85.

The Sea Eagles have the bye in round 12. Steve Bell and Brent Kite will be pleased to have a rest and after their big victory over the Storm last week Manly are looking on the up. They face the Panthers in round 13 and they?re a real chance in that one which will move them closer to a top 4 position.