2026 preview: Canberra Raiders

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Premiership window wide open for Ricky's Raiders in 2026

The Raiders' 2025 season came to the cruelest of ends against Brisbane in one of the weirdest matches of the century. In a quirk of the schedule, Canberra will have to wait until round 25 to avenge that Broncos loss, deep in August. By then, Raiders fans will likely have a clear understanding of if their team has been able to back up their first minor premiership since 1990. If they are at the top end of the ladder, it'll be another challenge entirely to avoid a straight sets bundle-out, which has surely been plaguing Ricky Stuart's nightmares over the off-season.

Comparatively minimal changes to the Canberra squad will give fans ample hope for another premiership challenge, but it's the loss of halfback Jamal Fogarty to Manly that may pose an issue for the team. Trey Mooney and Pasami Saulo are both headed to Newcastle, whilst Kiwi international Danny Levi is off to England, but these three players only made six appearances between them in the NRL last year. On paper, it appears that Canberra aren't losing many key players.

The additions of Daine Laurie, Sione Finau, and Jayden Brailey will add depth to the squad, but all three will have to put in a massive pre-season showing to gain a spot in the top 17. Young halfback Coby Black has moved to the capital a year earlier than anticipated, but remains untested at first grade level.

Canberra will face Melbourne in Queanbeyan and Cronulla-Sutherland in Gosford in their pre-season games, before starting their premiership campaign with two away matches - the Sea Eagles and the Warriors.

Why they'll win it

Despite the disappointment of Canberra's abrupt end to 2025, the overwhelming feelings in the club should be hope and pride. They were a team written off, yet they convincingly earned their title of minor premiers to prove the doubters wrong. The city was rallying around the team in a way not seen for years. For the Raiders to go all the way this season, they'll need to embrace the heartbreak of failure, and re-purpose it to fuel them for 2026.

If the club truly feels hope and pride in last year's showing, instead of wallowing in how it ended, then the city will believe it too. And if the city believes it, the team will come out and play exactly how they did last year to get them in with a great shot come finals time. Coupled with the minimal changes to the Raiders squad, Canberra have a genuine chance at taking out the 2026 premiership.

Why they won't

Jamal Fogarty was a key factor in Canberra's 2025 success, playing 24 matches for an average fantasy points score of 53.1, encapsulating his statistical contributions each match, whilst his guidance through pre-season and on the field with his voice and kicking game are more indirect factors that the Raiders are going to be lacking in 2026. Fogarty is off to Manly this season, leaving a gaping hole filled only with inexperience.

Canberra's potential spine line-up is quite flexible and young, so the Raiders could struggle without Fogarty's guidance, unless somebody in the forward pack steps up (likely the captain, Joseph Tapine) and takes on more leadership responsibility with the young backs as well.

2026 fixtures

Key player/s

How Ricky Stuart manages the number 9 role will be key to Canberra's success this season. New recruit from Newcastle Jayden Brailey could very well be without a first grade spot initially, with Tom Starling likely being given the first shot. Stuart also must consider 22 year old Owen Pattie.

Pattie suited up for every single game of the 2025 season and played a crucial role in the team's success. A repeat of the Starling/Pattie combination seems most likely for 2026 considering its previous success, leaving Brailey in no man's land.

However, if the two don't get off to a stellar start, or (touch wood) there's an injury, it's important that Brailey is able to step in and replicate his best form from a few seasons ago. Therefore, all three of these dummy-halves are key players to Canberra's success, and how Stuart approaches the number nine role is a cruical question that remains to be answered.

Rookie/Breakthrough to watch

19 year old halfback Coby Black is yet to make his NRL debut, but is considered a significant threat to Ethan Sanders' role in the number seven jersey this year. The U19 Origin representative has signed for three years, leaving the Broncos a year earlier than planned. Fans should watch for him during the pre-season challenge, where Stuart will likely let him loose for extended minutes. Stuart will want to build a proper halves partnership, and will want to avoid flip-flopping between Sanders and Black in the 7 jersey.

Ethan Sanders himself has only a handful of NRL appearances to his name, so the battle of the rookies in Sanders v Black for the halfback role is definitely one to watch. For Canberra to succeed, at least one of them will need to stand up and fill Jamal Fogarty's shoes with experience beyond their years.

Player Movement

GAINS: Jayden Brailey (Newcastle), Sione Finau (St Geo Illa), Daine Laurie (Penrith), Coby Black (Brisbane)

COACH: Ricky Stuart
CAPTAIN: Joseph Tapine

2026 CONTRACTED PLAYERS: Ata Mariota, Chevy Stewart, Coby Black, Corey Horsburgh, Daine Laurie, Ethan Sanders, Ethan Strange, Hudson Young, Jake Clydsdale, Jayden Brailey, Joseph Tapine, Joe Roddy, Josh Papalii, Kaeo Weekes, Matt Timoko, Matty Nicholson, Michael Asomua, Morgan Smithies, Myles Martin, Noah Martin, Owen Pattie, Savelio Tamale, Sebastian Kris, Simi Sasagi, Sione Finau, Tom Starling, Vena Patuki-Case, Xavier Savage, Zac Hosking

2025 LOSSES: Jamal Fogarty (Manly), Pasami Saulo, Trey Mooney (Newcastle), Albert Hopoate (Warrington), Danny Levi (Leeds), Jordan Martin (Mackay), Manaia Waitere (Melbourne)

Best 17

1. Kaeo Weekes
2. Xavier Savage
3. Matt Timoko
4. Seb Kris
5. Savelio Tamale
6. Ethan Strange
7. Ethan Sanders
8. Corey Horsburgh
9. Tom Starling
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Zac Hosking
13. Morgan Smithies
    
14. Matty Nicholson
15. Josh Papalii
16. Simi Sasagi
17. Owen Pattie