Let's Talk Origin - 2016 Round 16

This week we take a look at the meaning of a dead rubber, who replaces Michael Morgan for Queensland and the hot topic of loyalty v the future for the Blues.

Firstly, again we pay homage to the champion Queensland Maroons team who secured their 10th Origin shield out of the last 11 attempts. Whilst they aren't as sharp as they once were, their game management and "do whatever it takes" mentality got them home with the help of their parochial home crowd.

The Blues were again close to coming over the top of their adversaries. An extra pass on at least two occasions when they had the Maroons defence shot late in the contest could well have been the difference. More telling though, was the 10 minute period either side of halftime when they seemingly dropped their bundle. Seemingly on top until Dane Gagai's 80 metre try, the Blues dropped their heads and lost all direction in the process. They did well to claw their way back into the contest, but it was all to no avail in the end.

THE DEAD RUBBER

With the Origin Shield's destination decided for another year, there's been plenty of calls for the dead rubber to become a thing of the past and rightly so.

With so much talk of player welfare and the amount of footy our stars are playing these days, when a series is decided in the opening two games, surely the chance for them to play one less is of more importance than the corporate dollar made from a pointless game. The Maroons should also have been afforded the opportunity of lifting the shield in front of their home fans, just as NSW should have after winning the series at ANZ stadium two years ago.

Furthermore, despite the series being wrapped up and the significant drop in hype and intensity for game three, why should the NRL competition suffer another round laced with byes and the absence of many of its stars which will be the case in Round 18? A better solution would be to schedule rounds 1-16 at the start of the year and rounds 17-26 after Origin two, with two scenarios in place dependant on the result of that game.

WHO REPLACES MICHAEL MORGAN?

With a knee injury suffered during game two keeping the Maroons utility out of action for the next month, the Maroons will be forced to choose between another utility to fill the roll or an extra forward on the bench. Here who comes into contention:

DALY CHERRY-EVANS - DCE would appear to be the next in line if QLD do opt for a like for like replacement after coming into camp prior to Origin one to cover for Cooper Cronk who was in doubt at the time. He also has the experience of filling the role successfully in the past prior to Morgan earning the position off him. It has been some time since we saw the best out of him though and a nagging ankle injury would be of some concern too. Needs a big couple of games for Manly to earn a recall.

BEN BARBA - At the start of the year, Barba would have been 1000-1 to earn a debut Maroons jersey, but now it's looming as a very real possibility. The Sharks custodian has rediscovered his mojo playing in a form and confident football team, racking up 9 tries and 9 try assists for the year. Apart from fullback, he can cover the halves and potentially the outside backs and hooker. His small stature could be the one sticking point, with the utility role these days falling to someone who has a big enough frame for a stint in the back-row. QLD would have the option of throwing him on the wing and sending Corey Oates into the back-row however.

ETHAN LOWE - With Nate Myles not listed to return until round 20, it appears game two 18th man Lowe is in the box seat if Coach Kevin Walters opts to run with four forwards on the bench. Lowe continues to impress for the Cowboys with his tireless work ethic and strong hole running on the right edge and a ready-made combination with JT is a big plus. Prior to game one, Coach Walters opted to send DCE home with the decision to run with four forwards on the bench if Cronk couldn't prove his fitness. If that's any indication, look for Lowe to earn a well-deserved Maroons jersey for game three.

NEW SOUTH WALES LEADERSHIP

In the wake of former Blues Coach Phil Gould's accusation of the NSW leadership group being selfish and stalling the progress of the team, there's been plenty of debate on whether Coach Laurie Daley should stick with them for this dead rubber match or usher in the Blues new era and blood more rookies.

Whilst Gould didn't name names, it was pretty obvious that Greg Bird, Robbie Farah and in particular Captain Paul Gallen were firmly in his firing line.  Whilst one view is that his comments were based around them still playing at this level and blocking the younger brigades path into the team, it seemed to me they were based more around the control they take on the field which often stifles the Blues halves of the football.

For what it's worth, I've always felt it's up to your six and seven to take control of the game and call for the ball in them crucial attacking situations and if they are in fact calling for it and not getting it, then surely it's up to the hooker to make the right choice and give it to them. 

So, the big question of course is does Coach Daley stay loyal to his senior players and give Gallen his farewell or does he usher in the future of the Sky Blue to give them a taste of Origin before next year?

The popular choice seems to be that change is needed now and on the surface it does seem the common sense approach given game three is a dead rubber. The question has to be asked though, if Daley was to in fact ring the changes and blood more rookies, would it really be a true indication of Origin football? Whilst everyone involved will forcefully tell you the pride in the jersey ensures that every Origin counts, the drop in intensity is usually significant with that "win at all costs" mentality no longer a part of the equation. With this in mind, give Skipper Gallen the send-off he deserves in front of his home crowd. The bloke has continuously poured every ounce of blood, sweat and tears into the Sky Blue jersey and deserves nothing less.

As far as Greg Bird goes, he's given no indication of not going round again at rep level next year and is still holding his form to play a key role moving forward. He was still one of only a few to provide any sort of line speed on Wednesday night with his willingness to put on an aggressive shot when needed not to be underestimated. 

The big change Daley should consider out of the leadership group is Robbie Farah. Whilst he made some good runs early in game two and racked up another tackle count, he just doesn't seem right at the moment. Constant speculation about his future at the Tigers is obviously weighing on him heavily and he no longer seems the attacking threat out of acting half he once was. Nathan Peats seems the clear pick moving to the future. He's sharp out of dummy half and provides tremendous line speed and aggression, key elements in any Origin player.

OTHER NSW CHANGES

It's highly likely Coach Daley will again stick solid with the squad used in the opening two games, but here's the changes I think he needs to consider to be competitive in game three, whilst having a view towards next year at the same time.

MATT MOYLAN OUT - JAMES TEDESCO IN

Apart from getting on the back of some second phase play late in game two, Moylan has failed to deliver on the ball playing he was selected for, with NSW only two tries of the series executed by halves James Maloney and Adam Reynolds. More telling in game two though was Moylan's unwillingness to put his body on the line in key situations… Enter James Tedesco who reportedly had one foot in the squad before succumbing to a shoulder injury prior to game one. Tedesco is ready to take his chance and the speed he plays with in attack is capable of breaking Queensland's defensive line wide open.

BLAKE FERGUSON OUT - JOSH DUGAN IN

Whilst Ferguson hasn't done a lot wrong in the opening two games, he hasn't exactly done much to keep a mortgage on his jersey either and could be the one to make way for his former "rooftop buddy" Josh Dugan. The Blues best player in 2015 made a successful return from the elbow injury that kept him out in games one and two on the weekend. Dugan had a game to forget in his last appearance as a winger in the 2015 Trans-Tasman Test, but could be worth another look there given the amount of quality fullbacks and centres available to the Blues at the moment. Would be a major asset getting back to help out on kick returns.

DYLAN WALKER OUT - JACK BIRD CENTRE - BRYCE CARTWRIGHT BENCH

Despite being given some early ball by his inside men last Wednesday night, Walker failed to really trouble his opposite number and has some silly stuff in his game that has cost the Blues some crucial penalties throughout the series… Jack Bird had an outstanding debut coming off the bench in game two, troubling the Maroons on both sides of the ball and looks a potential Origin star for years to come. Such was his impact off the bench, the temptation would be to leave him in the utility role, but the more he's on the park the more the Blues chances of scoring points are… Coming in to fill the utility role would be Cartwright. Despite questions marks around his defence at this level, his attack is just too good to ignore and game three looms as the perfect chance to thrust him into the Origin arena. Simply put by Fox Sports analyst Matty Johns after the Panthers win last Friday night "he's the best play-maker NSW have got".

JAMES TAMOU OUT - PAUL GALLEN PROP - GREG BIRD LOCK

It's fair to say Tamou has been solid throughout his Origin career, but averaging just 56 running metres in this year's series has failed to pack a punch and could be the man sacrificed in order of Gallen's farewell. With the NSW Captain pushing up front for his final outing, it would be only fitting for his "bruise brother" Greg Bird to join him in the run-on team where he should probably be anyway. Bird has injected more line speed into the Blues than any other NSW player and should be out there from the opening whistle.

BOYD CORDNER/WADE GRAHAM IN - TYSON FRIZELL BENCH

Game one players' player Cordner is aiming to prove his fitness in time for game three and is a walk up starter on the left edge if he can do so. One of Coach Daley's policies in his time as NSW coach has been that players have to prove their fitness by playing a game for their club prior to Origin camp. If Cordner fails to turn out for the Roosters on Thursday night, Wade Graham deserves his chance after heartbreakingly missing out in game two following his one game suspension… Tyson Frizell's Origin debut was one of the shining lights coming out of game two for the Blues and while a move back to the bench may seem like a demotion of sorts, it could in fact strengthen the overall balance of the side. His versatility of being able to play on an edge or in the middle gives the Blues plenty of options and his strength and power running make him a potential impact weapon off the bench. 

IF ADAM REYNOLDS CAN'T PLAY?

Like Cordner, you can only assume halfback Reynolds needs to prove his fitness and turn out for Souths this weekend to be selected. If he can't, Chad Townsend would be the ideal man to come in and partner Sharks team mate Maloney in the halves. Townsend is playing with plenty of confidence in a team topping the competition, plays with good awareness and isn't afraid to take the line on.

POSSIBLE BLUES LINE-UP

1. James Tedesco 
2. Josh Mansour
3. Michael Jennings
4. Jack Bird
5. Josh Dugan
6. James Maloney
7. Adam Reynolds/Chad Townsend
8. Aaron Woods
9. Nathan Peats
10. Paul Gallen ©
11. Boyd Cordner/Wade Graham
12. Josh Jackson 
13. Greg Bird

14. Bryce Cartwright
15. Tyson Frizell
16. David Klemmer
17. Andrew Fifita

What are your thoughts? Have a crack in the comments below!