PREVIEWS: 2016 Intrust Super Premiership Preliminary Finals

NSWRL's Simon Masterton and Matt Buxton preview the third week of the NSWRL Intrust Super Premiership Finals Series.

Mounties (1st) v Wests Tigers (3rd)

Leichhardt Oval, Sunday 18 September
3:15pm
Broadcast LIVE on Fox Sports 501

They've been neck and neck in their two meetings this year, but the Wests Tigers will be out for their maiden win of the season over injury-ridden Mounties when they meet in the first Preliminary Final.

The first encounter, back in Round 12, saw Mounties play out a 27-20 victory at Aubrey Keech Reserve, with Intrust Super Premiership NSW Player Of The Year Sam Williams having a hand in all five of his team's tries to keep his side on top of the ladder. It was a different story in Round 21, when the Tigers set up a 28-6 half-time score - only for one of the comebacks of the year to result in a 32-28 Mounties victory at Campbelltown Stadium. It was not the first time the men from Mount Pritchard have clicked into gear to steal victory in the second half and the Tigers will know a complete defensive performance is needed to avoid a repeat at Leichhardt Oval.

Only one of the teams in this match-up still have an NRL team in the finals and despite enjoying last weekend off, Mounties will be feeling the pressure with a number of injury concerns. A devastating ankle injury to Josh Hodgson against the Sharks could have some effect on Mounties' playing roster, despite the English hooker being named to play again this week, while there must also be some concern over the return of Blake Austin - which could decide whether Mounties are with or without skipper Sam Williams. A mid-week broken ankle to prop Clay Priest, who was initially named for the Raiders, will also force one of Mounties' stars into the NRL, with Paul Vaughan the most likely to get the call-up. Finally, Mounties themselves will have to play on without the competition's leading try scorer Kato Ottio, who was carried from the field a fortnight ago.

It has been a case of Murphy's Law in Mounties camp recently, but if any team is capable of overcoming adversity to make the Grand Final it is the Minor Premiers. Coach Steve Antonelli will be all too aware that his side fell at the same stage last year - Mounties, also the Minor Premiers in 2015, suffered a major upset at the hands of eventual premiers Newcastle - but with just four players remaining from that team, it is unlikely to be a mental barrier to the side's chances on Sunday. Antonelli has been successful in pushing for continuous improvement all year and this will not change this week; if he can get an 80-minute performance from his men they should still be favourites to close out the Preliminary Final.

For the Tigers, the same 17 from last week's victory over Wyong have been named, which is of vital importance at this time of year. The Semi Final win was a lot closer than the score line indicates, however, with the sides achieving similar tackle counts, run metres, possession and completions, so improvement will be necessary to take down the competition favourites. Big efforts from the likes of Jack Littlejohn, Josh Addo-Carr and Jordan Grant set up the victory and they will want to be on song again at Leichhardt.

Injury concerns for Mounties can't be discounted but the Minor Premiers sit where they are for a reason; they haven't won 20 of their 23 games without more than a few challenges along the way. Expect them to show their class in what should be thriller on Fox Sports 501, while the Tigers will also have plenty of belief that they can take them down at one of their home grounds.

Where it will be won:

Both sides boast class across the park, but if there is one area that will go a long way to determining the result it is the second-rowers of Mounties and the Tigers respectively. For Mounties, injuries are unlikely to affect their second row unless Shaun Fensom beats out Paul Vaughan and Jeff Lima for the vacant NRL bench spot, while Scott Sorensen and Jarrad Kennedy will be as consistent as they have been all season. The Tigers' second-row includes Jackson Williams, Joel Edwards and the experienced Curtis Sironen, who will want to improve on their combined 264 metres against the Roos. These link players will be vital to both sides breaking their opposition apart on the edges, while Sam Williams can also help Mounties in this regard.

Key match-up:

Two NRL-standard edge forwards face off in the shape of Sironen and Kennedy - a match-up that will ensure an encounter worthy of a Grand Final Qualifier at Leichhardt Oval. The pair have combined for 114 first grade appearances and at 25 and 27 years of age respectively, are senior figures in their own teams. Both bring significant attacking and defensive qualities and are sure to perform under the added pressure of the Preliminary Final.

Assuming Sam Williams pulls on the boots, his game against Littlejohn will be another key one in determining who goes through to the decider. Littlejohn's 12 points helped set up victory against the Roos while Williams also had a terrific performance in his last Intrust Super Premiership NSW meeting against the Warriors.

Ins:

Mounties: Alofi Mataele, Sam Williams, Paul Vaughan, Patrick Mataele,
Wests Tigers: Manaia Rudolph

Outs:

Mounties: Kato Ottio
Wests Tigers: (none)

- with Simon Masterton

Illawarra Cutters (2nd) v Newtown Jets (4th)

Leichhardt Oval, Sunday 18 September
5:15pm
LIVE Stream on NSWRL.com.au

Neither the Cutters nor the Jets made the Intrust Super Premiership NSW finals series in 2015, so it is quite remarkable that they are playing each other for a spot in the Grand Final.

If Wests Tigers - who also failed to make the top eight in 2015 - are to win the other Preliminary Final, then the Grand Final will consist of two sides with a stunning turnaround in the space of a year.

The Jets will not be worried about the other game for now, as they are looking to defeat the Cutters for the first time this season having already gone down twice to the Illawarra-based side.

At WIN Stadium in Round 7, the Cutters got up 28-14 with the tries coming from various NRL players including Peter Mata'utia, Taane Milne and Kurt Mann. The Jets were brave and Fa'amanu Brown was dangerous as always, and his double in a losing side proves that the Cutters need to seriously watch him.

It was not quite as close in Round 13 where the Cutters got up 38-14, but Brown remarkably scored another double despite being in a losing side. Shannon Wakeman has had a powerful year, and he scored two tries in this game along with crafty halfback, Drew Hutchinson.

These teams possess two of the most exciting fullbacks in the competition, Adam Quinlan from the Cutters and Jaline Graham from the Jets. These players both have experience playing in the halves, which means they are capable of ball-playing abilities to go along with their reliant support-play and dangerous running game.

While Quinlan leads the charge from the back, Wakemen certainly puts the Cutters on the front foot. He has been arguably the form front-rower of the competition, and he is certainly not afraid to power his way over defenders to cross the white stripe.

Matt McIlwrick is another key for the Jets, and has really made the number nine jersey his own in 2016. He provides Josh Cleeland and Brown with brilliant service, but has enough spark of his own to break the game open at any stage.

Where it will be won:

The classy halves and backs for any Rugby League team are nothing without the engine room, and it is no different for this Preliminary Final. The forwards are where this game will be won, with both sides possessing some serious talent within their packs. Wakeman, as mentioned, is the leader for the Cutters, but he is backed up by the likes of English import Tyrone McCarthy, Jacob Host, Siliva Havili, and Damian Sironen. The Jets, on the other hand, have two high-profile front rowers leading the pack. Junior Roqica and Jesse Sene-Lefao have seen their fair share of first grade, while the ever-reliable Kurt Kara will lock up the scrum after having a blinder of a match last week against the New Zealand Warriors.

Key match-ups:

The juiciest match-up of the weekend is two of the most exciting halves-pairings in the competition going at it. Drew Hutchinson already has plenty of wraps, and is destined to see more NRL time in 2017. His ability to control a game could be a match-winner for the Cutters, and Shaun Nona compliments him beautifully. Nona was a key player in the NSW Residents side earlier in the year, meaning he has the ability to rise to the big occasion. Fa'amanu Brown, as mentioned earlier, is one of the most gifted players in the world. He already has four tries to his name against the Cutters this year, and scored an unbelievable solo try against Mounties in the opening week of the finals. Josh Cleeland, however, is close to the form player of the competition. He doesn't over-compensate a skill, having equal passing, kicking and running ability, which is perfect for a five-eighth. It will be very interesting to see which team prevails in the battle of the halves.

Ins:

Illawarra: Kurt Mann, Taane Milne, Jacob Host

Newtown: Jesse Sene-Lefao, Brent Anderson

Outs:

Illawarra: Mitchell Porter, Samuel Clune, Hermen Sele

Newtown: None

- with Matt Buxton