The Synopsis - NRL round 18

Raiders v Knights
Friday night's match between Canberra and Newcastle had all the ingredients a league fan would want on a cold winter's night.

One team, Canberra, with a huge forward pack and slick talented backs, but being young they lack the experience that only comes with week in week out play at the highest level. On May 9th the Raiders thrashed the Titans 56-16, but they would only win once more in the next 8 weeks.

The other team, Newcastle, is a workingman's 17. Everyone who saw what Newcastle had to offer in the first four rounds knew that amongst the original roster was the makings of an excellent football team, experienced, knowledgeable and capable. On March 28 the Knights beat Penrith BUT would only win once more in 11 matches. As they approach their 16th match of the season, they know that this year is a write-off. A year lost partly because injury kept some of their best players sidelined for extended periods.

Blake Austin carved Newcastle up in a period of just 14 minutes. Running in three tries he had his team leading 14-0 and the hardy Canberra fans were making the noise of a crowd ten times the size. Austin, clearly the best buy at any club in 2015, has people back at the joint venture (Wests-Tigers) asking, how and why he was allowed to get away. Coach Ricky Stuart is confident his 5/8 will improve in the weeks (and years) ahead. Canberra have a record that many other teams would envy, they can win matches even when possession is not 50/50. In fact, in only 1 of their 7 wins did they get half the possession (R13). This match they had just 41% of the possession, but won easily, 44-22.

Panthers v Roosters
Last week I wrote that if the Panthers could defeat the Roosters tonight, (as well as notching up three wins in a row for the first time), they would be announcing that their campaign for a finals spot actually had legs. As Panthers fans will tell anyone who wants to listen, their team has had a horrific run with injuries and went into this match with seriously good players unavailable, including Brent Kite, Jamal Idris, George Jennings, Matt Moylan, James Segeyaro and Josh Mansour. In contrast, the Roosters had a full roster to call upon, genuine competition for positions and four players returning from representative duty.

Penrith has a poor defensive record in 2015. I have commented on Penrith's missed tackle rate since round one. Overnight Coach Ivan Cleary, was critical of his team's defence and he should be. Missing 30 tackles or more in 10 matches, 40 or more in 3 of those is not the evidence of a team hoping to play finals football.

So, when Blake Ferguson, in the 19th minute, stepped inside Peter Wallace, ran wide of Jamie Soward and then brushed off Isaah Yeo to set up the first try for Shaun Kenny-Dowall, the writing was on the wall. However, the score was still only 6-0 at half time and despite the defensive problems, Penrith had shown real grit. But the Roosters had extra ball to play with (52% to 48%) and it didn't take long for them to put the match beyond doubt. Shaun Kenny-Dowall scored his second try in the 51st minute and a penalty goal was kicked 5 minutes later. It was now 14-0 and worse was to follow as Mitch Aubusson got a miracle pass to Roger Tuivasa-Sheck who scored to move the margin out to 18 points.

The Panthers went on to miss 41 tackles and the Roosters were in charge for large swathes of the match. The final score Roosters 24 - Panthers 4 flattered the home team, it could have been much, much worse.

Bulldogs v Broncos
Saturday's second match had a surprise for regular punters. Brisbane, the team leading the competition, the team with 6 representative players including man of the series Corey Parker, were ranked outsiders by the betting agencies. On average they were willing to offer 4.5 points start to the Broncos The rep. season ended on Wednesday night and Brisbane had won all 5 of their matches. The Broncos young halves combination (Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford) have been stand out performers but the discipline of the team is their stand out feature of their season. The two best examples of their discipline are defence and penalties.

In their recent match against Melbourne everyone praised Brisbane's goal line defence, but Brisbane also miss fewer tackles than any other team. Compare results so far this weekend, Penrith in losing to the Roosters missed 42 tackles, while the Bronco's missed just 13.

Conceding Penalties is the simplest way to give possession and momentum to your opponent. In total, Brisbane and St George have conceded fewer penalties (85). Brisbane has conceded 5 penalties or less in 11 matches (out of 16). Only once did they concede 10 or more.

The final score was Broncos 16 - Bulldogs 8, which seemed close, but anyone watching the match (live or on TV) could tell that the Bulldogs were struggling. The 'Dogs had scored in the 50th minute, to get within two points and for 10 minutes their fans had some hope. Brisbane's Adam Blair crashed over from 5 metres out in the 61st minute and with Corey Parker's conversion, the 8 point margin was created and wouldn't change.

Warriors v Storm

The first match on Sunday was played at Mt Smart stadium and the home team were hoping to win their third match in a row, (for the 2nd time in 2015). New Zealand had defeated the Titans (R 15) and the Raiders (R 16) and had the bye and a week off in (R 17). The Warriors had been almost untouched by the Australian based representative series with only Ryan Hoffman (NSW) and Jacob Lillyman (QLD) being selected. Remember the large Kiwi contingent at the Warriors were ineligible. So they should have been well rested, fit and raring to go. But by 3pm NZ time, winger Manu Vatuvei, centre Konrad Hurrell and Hoffman had been ruled unfit to play.

Melbourne had paid a high price for their contribution to Origin with Billy Slater lost for the season and Cooper Cronk (although back now) sidelined with a leg injury for a few weeks, effectively cutting the attacking spine that the Storm had relied on. Cameron Munster has replaced Billy Slater and he is a solid fullback, but he (obviously) lacks the experience and vision that Slater brings to his task, especially in defence.

New Zealand got off to a great start and the large local crowd cheered them from the pitch at half time having watched them score a try (approximately) every 10 minutes. Tuimoala Lolohea (11th), replacement centre David Fusitua (22nd) and Bodene Thompson (34th) along with conversions from Shaun Johnson, helped the team post a score of 16 - 0. Johnson, hailed as man of the match against Canberra was again in sublime form.

16-0 became 16-10 when Melbourne's Marika Koroibete (44th) and Kenneath Bromwich (53rd) scored. But Tuimoala Lolohea scored again four minutes later and the Warriors again led by two converted tries (12 points).

A dropped ball gave possession to the visitors just two minutes after the Lolohea try and Kenneath Bromwich grabbed his second try for the day. That man Shaun Johnson showed off his stepping and running ability to score a try (which he converted) and Melbourne had seen their chance to even up the match disappear in a flash. A penalty goal at the 75th minute gave the Warriors a fourteen point lead and that's the way it finished Warriors 28 - Storm 14.

After six wins in eight matches the Warriors took 4th position on the competition ladder, ahead of South Sydney with a better differential. Next week they take on the Roosters who are also riding high (in 3rd) with seven wins from their previous eight matches. Some would argue that this (not Broncos v Tigers or Bulldogs v Eels) will be the Match of the Round in Round 19, and I'd be one of them.

Sharks v Dragons
As a Cronulla fan (some say) I am more likely than most to offer a glowing report on my teams performance than other writers / journalists but today I am going to offer a report with a different emphasis. Sure, the Sharks (at home) defeated the Dragon's 28-8, but it wasn't a fair fight!!

Trent Merrin, Josh Dugan, Benji Marshall, Eto Nabuli, Dan Hunt, Joel Thompson, Jack de Belin, Tyson Frizell and Dylan Farrell were not available for selection, thus the Dragons had fielded an almost 2nd grade team and although they tried hard, they were outclassed, out scored, out kicked and out played. The Dragons had paid a high price for the disruption wrought by the State of Origin series (between round 11 and round 18) and had lost their fifth match in a row. Both clubs have potentially season defining matches, next week. Cronulla travel to the national capital to play Canberra in the traditional 3pm Saturday afternoon timeslot, while St George play South Sydney, around four hours later at the SCG.

Titans v Sea Eagles
With 58% of possession Manly led 20 nil at half time in Monday night football. The Titans had made 7 errors and missed 18 tackles. It was one way traffic.

Five minutes into the second half the Sea Eagles Kieran Foran scored and (at 26 - 0) it was fairly clear there was no way back for the Titans.

The final score was Manly 38 - Gold Coast 6 and the visitors had won 3 of their last 4 matches having finally got their best 17 on the park. Next Monday night Manly welcome Nth Queensland to Brookvale, then they travel to New Zealand before the Broncos arrive in Manly for a Saturday night match. Manly need to win some or all three of these matches AND hope that the teams on 20 points (4 ahead of them on the competition ladder) lose. These teams are Melbourne, St George, Canterbury and Cronulla. They also have to leapfrog 3 teams on 18 points - Canberra, Penrith and Parramatta.