The Prism - Round 19 2015

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The structure of junior football is under threat and this may have a long-term impact on the league. There are a number of causes, but the most prominent is that it is becoming less attractive for clubs to grow their own, only to see the cream of their crop being poached when they come of age.

Looking at the "big 3" from each club, it is interesting to see where they came from. Players highlighted in bold are local juniors for the respective clubs.

  • Broncos - Hunt, Milford, Boyd (returned)
  • Bulldogs - Graham, B. Morris, Hodkinson
  • Cowboys - Thurston, Morgan, Scott
  • Dragons - Marshall, Widdop, Dugan
  • Eels - Sandow, Norman, Hopoate
  • Knights - Gidley, Mullen, Scott
  • Panthers - Soward, Moylan, Wallace (returned)
  • Rabbitohs - Inglis, Reynolds, G. Burgess
  • Raiders - Austin, Wighton, Papalii
  • Roosters - Pearce, Jennings, Tuivasa-Sheck
  • Sea Eagles - Cherry-Evans, Foran, Lyon
  • Sharks - Gallen, Ennis, Lewis
  • Storm - Smith, Slater, Cronk
  • Tigers - Farah, Woods, Taupau
  • Titans - Sezer, Bird, Myles
  • Warriors - Johnson, Mannering, Hoffman

There may be arguments over who are a club's "big 3". However, the above players are all stars for their teams. From this sample, only of 14 the 48 (29%) were home grown. Therefore, the vast majority of a team's super stars are poached from other teams.

US professional sports teams draw their players from either the college system or other countries. There is no link between the franchise and the junior base. Some teams in the NRL use this model, especially the hugely successful Melbourne Storm.

If this becomes the norm, then the junior system will need to be taken over by another body and a draft initiated to share the talent. The current hybrid system only serves to penalise the clubs who invest a lot of money into their junior base.

There is always an uproar when a local junior is poached, but no one really minds a top grade signing staying in the club instead. The Dragons were baying for blood when Brett Morris and Trent Merrin were lured away, but they conveniently forgot that they had Dugan, Marshall, Widdopp, etc on their books. Something has to give before the junior ranks are ignored in the pursuit of short-term success and to the detriment of rugby league in Australia.


Predictions

Last week I picked 5/7 after showing too much faith in Penrith and the Bulldogs at home. Here are my picks for this week.

Eels vs. Bulldogs @ ANZ Stadium
The Bulldogs have too many big guns for the resurgent Eels. Bulldogs by 6

Storm vs. Panthers @ AAMI Park
Both teams have their star fullback out. Storm by 6

Raiders vs. Sharks @ GIO Stadium
The Raiders have a lot of points in them which the Sharks cannot match. Raiders by 10

Knights vs. Titans @ Hunter Stadium
The Knights surely will try to win this one? Knights by 2

Dragons vs. Rabbitohs @ Sydney Cricket Ground
The Dragons have again thrown away home ground advantage. Rabbitohs by 18

Roosters vs. Warriors @ Allianz Stadium
The Roosters have hit great form at the right time. Roosters by 8

Broncos vs. Tigers @ Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos will have too much class for the inexperienced Tigers squad. Broncos by 8

Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys @ Brookvale Oval
The Cowboys will want to finish off their season strongly. Cowboys by 6


Form Guide

The form guide is based on a predictive model that gives more weight to recent performances. There is no adjustment for personal bias, injury or their position on the table. Byes are given a 50% weighting.

  1. Broncos (-) : did not skip a beat after their bye
  2. Roosters (+1) : are heating up in their premiership campaign
  3. Cowboys (-1) : had their bye after a gutsy understrength win
  4. Warriors (+2) : are showing some consistency through he Origin period
  5. Sharks (+2) : really enjoyed returning serve against their neighbours
  6. Eels (-2) : won 4 of their last 5 leading into the bye
  7. Sea Eagles (+3) : three wins from their last four
  8. Rabbitohs (+1) : had a bye after a loss
  9. Bulldogs (-4) : taught a lesson by the Broncos
  10. Raiders (+3) : can they become more consistent?
  11. Panthers (-3) : could not match the in form Roosters
  12. Titans (-1) : no match for the resurgent Sea Eagles
  13. Storm (-1) : four losses around the bye
  14. Tigers (-1) : the bye has given them a little reprieve
  15. Dragons (-1) : five losses in a row and injuries, suspensions and rep duty have cruelled them
  16. Knights (-1) : lost 11 of their last 12


Composite Team

Last week's composite team was made up of vertically challenged players. Can you work out the theme for the team below?

  1. Beau Ryan
  2. Jharal Yow Yeh
  3. Steve Rogers
  4. Jarrod McCracken
  5. Taniela Tuiaki
  6. Mark Murray
  7. Peter Sterling
  8. Adam Ritson
  9. Andrew Johns
  10. Steve Price
  11. Simon Dwyer
  12. Graeme Hughes
  13. Liam Fulton
  14. John Buttigieg
  15. Steve Simpson
  16. Shaun Valentine
  17. Brett Papworth

This team has strong centres, scheming halves and a skilful pack. Predicted placing in 2015 table: 13th


Flash Back

This week's Flash Back was the original rugby league gridiron player. Paul Sironen was offered a scholarship at the University of Hawaii as a defensive tackle but chose to play rugby league after one year in college.

Sironen debuted for Balmain Tigers in 1985 and played 2 games off the bench. The next year he played the whole season and was named Dally M Rookie of the Year. The Tigers made a deep run in the finals but lost the preliminary final to the Bulldogs. Sironen then made his international debut off the bench against PNG and played France a few weeks later.

1987 saw an early finals exit for the Tigers, but 1988 saw them make it all the way to the Grand Final after a playoff for 5th place. The Bulldogs were again victorious24-12 after Balmain's star English import was rubbed out by Terry Lamb in back play.

In 1989, Sironen was selected for NSW in the State of Origin. He was then one of the first selected during his ensuing 14 matches played until 1994.

The Tigers again reached the decider in 1989 against Canberra in an epic game. The Tigers held a 12-2 lead with a Sironen try just before half time. In a contentious decision by the coach, which still creates much angst among supporters, Sironen and fellow enforcer Steve Roach were replaced with 15 minutes left in regulation. It is widely believed that this led to Canberra being able to get back into the match and eventually win in extra time.

In 1990, Sironen was named Dally M Second-rower of the Year. He went on the end of year Kangaroo tour to Great Britain and France. 1991 was a season dogged by injury but he returned the following year and made the test team against Great Britain.

Sironen made his third Kangaroo tour and then was named captain for the newly named Sydney Tigers in 1995. He held this post for six games before relinquishing the role.

Sironen surpassed Garry Jack's club record for the most first grade games. At the end of the 1998 season, he left the club to finish out his career with French club US Villeneuve-sur-Lot. In France he helped his club to victory in the final of the 1999 championship.

In total he played 246 matches for the Tigers scoring twenty-two tries for a total of 88 points and made 21 appearances for his country, scoring three tries.

At his peak, Sironen was one of the most damaging attacking forwards in the game. He was named as a starting second rower in the Wests Tigers Team of the Century as well as the Balmain Team of the Century.

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