2015 Finals - Stats and Rankings - Useful or Useless

My grandfather used to say "statisticians don't make tackles or score points." This was his way of telling me that keeping statistics on Rugby League games was; 1) a waste of my time, and 2) that statistics are no help when deciding who will win any match. When I became an adult we agreed to disagree.

Since the completion of the 2015 State of Origin Series, I have kept a range of statistics to try and do what my grandfather said can't be done. That is, taking into account the performance of all clubs over the last 8 weeks of competition to see if that helps me when I try to assess the performance of the finalists in Week 1.

To do this I kept and ranked teams based on 11 areas. All this information can be found on the NRL Website, so my calculations are based on ‘Official' statistics.

1. Points for;
2. Points against;
3. Difference between for / against;
4. Penalties Conceded by each team;
5. Tackles Missed by each team;
6. Errors made by each team;
7. Offloads made by each team;
8. Run Metres - how many metres each team ran with ball in hand;
9. Kick Metres - how many metres were gained from kicking the ball in general play;
10. Total of Line breaks made by each team;
11. Total of Tackle breaks made by each player;

Rankings for the first four finals matches are shown below;

Roosters (26) vs Storm (58)
The Roosters ranked 1st in 6 of the areas, line breaks, tackle breaks, points for, points against, +/-differential and run metres. They are 2nd in penalties and missed tackles and 3rd in errors and offloads. They are clear favourites for this match and overall.

The Storm ranked 1st in missed tackles and 4th or better in line breaks, errors, +/- differential and points against. Although the finished fourth in the regular season, the rate 2nd overall.

Bulldogs (62) vs Dragons (104)
The Bulldogs are rated fourth overall and 2nd in line breaks and offloads. Thy rated 3rd in points for and 4th in penalties conceded.

The Dragons are rank outsiders with only 2 ratings in the top 8. Their defence was 3rd best and 6th in kick metres.

Broncos (71) vs Cowboys (61)
The Broncos rated 1st in penalties conceded and kick metres, 3rd in points against and 4th in +/- differential, run metres and points for. They rank 5th overall despite finishing 2nd in the regular season.

The Cowboys rated 2nd in errors, run metres, points for and +/- differential and 3rd in line breaks and tackle breaks.

Sharks (82) vs Rabbitohs (90)
The Sharks rated 2nd in tackle breaks as well as 3rd in penalties conceded and run metres. They rated 7th in four other areas and finished 6th in the regular season.

The Rabbitohs who finished 7th overall rated 1st in errors and 2nd in kick metres. If they continue to compete well in these areas, they will be hard to beat.