2016 NRL Preview - Parramatta Eels

A new era for Parramatta began in 2015, as the club began to learn to live without the talismanic Jarryd Hayne. No longer able to rely on him for attacking spark, the Eels were also no longer forced to accommodate him.

However looking at the most granular aspect of team performance - for and against - very little changed. They scored just over a point per game less, and conceded seven fewer points over the entire season than in 2014. Where Hayne's absence was felt most was in three fewer wins, although the end result for the club was no different to his last five years in blue and gold - a bottom eight finish.

But if a new era started in 2015, it was also the end of an era, as Chris Sandow's unhappy four year association with the club came to its dismal conclusion. During those four seasons, Parramatta finished in the bottom four defensive teams in the NRL every single year. The last time they achieved such a low was in 1995. And while correlation isn't the same as causality, it goes further - in Sandow's eight years in the NRL his club finished in the bottom four defensive teams on seven occasions (the exception being 2009 when Souths' defence was bottom six). Despite polling well in the Dally M voting, there's a reason his NRL career is over at the age of 26. There is no longer room for poor defenders in the NRL; even the weakest link in a defensive line needs to be somewhat capable, or the entire defence collapses. Most people would probably agree this is a shame.

WHY THEY'LL WIN IT

Parramatta's strengths in 2016 are their lethal left side attack and a greatly improved defensive line, particularly on the right hand side.

The Eels have had one of the more potent left edge attacks in 2014 and '15, and have the same four characters returning this year. However left centre Brad Takairangi is almost certainly moving to the right, to accommodate the addition of Origin star Michael Jennings. Two time Dally M winger Radradra and recent Auckland Nines player of the tournament Corey Norman round out the left side with Manu Ma'u, who is like a sledgehammer with footwork and ball skills.

On the right will be the new additions of Kieran Foran and Beau Scott, both experienced representative players and noted defenders. They replace Sandow and Tepai Moeroa - a powerful frontal defender, but still very young and inexperienced, and lacking lateral movement due to sheer size. Moeroa moves into the middle and Scott takes over defending at the crucial right edge position on the halfback's inside shoulder. If Parramatta had conceded just eight less points per game in 2015 they would have been in the top four defensive sides. One would hope swapping Sandow for Foran would improve the defence by more than eight points per game.

WHY THEY WON'T

Parramatta no longer have any glaring vulnerabilities, such as those which plagued them in previous years (especially right edge defence). Opposition coaches will have to come up with something better than left edge shifts repeated ad nauseum when they play the Eels. However there are still a number of minor weaknesses that may cost some games and ultimately the season.

The Eels have a number of new players, and particularly a number of new key players in 2016, with Foran and Michael Gordon coming into the spine, as well as the aforementioned edge players in Jennings and Scott. Combinations aren't built overnight, and it's likely Parramatta will start the season a lot slower than they finish. Which would be a pleasant change.

Related to the number of new players is the fact that a very large number of Eels players are off contract this year. After penning new deals, players always talk about how it's nice to have their future sorted so they can concentrate on playing footy. This idea obviously applies differently from one player to the next, but across a group of 24 (the number of Eels players who have not had contract extensions announced) there are bound to be some without their minds completely on 2016. This will be mitigated somewhat by coaching and leadership, but the reality is everyone likes to know if they'll still be able to pay the bills this time next year.

KEY PLAYER

Kieran Foran
Foran has blond hair, will wear Parramatta's jersey number 7, and in early 2011 he was praised by Eels legend Sterlo as "the best young player in the game". Almost five years later and Foran has grown into one of the game's premier all round players - he is fast and strong, a quality playmaker, recognised as a leader and competitor, and is one of the best defensive halves in the NRL. Even his nationality is a bonus - Foran doesn't miss any games due to Origin. He has come over to Parramatta with a big reputation and a big price tag, and is surely the club's biggest signing since sometime in the 70s. There is probably no player in the NRL under more pressure this year than Kieran Sterling.

ROOKIE TO WATCH

Clinton Gutherson
Gutherson made his NRL debut over two years ago but still technically qualifies as a rookie; he has only played five NRL games, before suffering a season ending injury in round one of 2015 (coincidentally against the Eels). Gutherson doesn't turn 22 until very late in the season, and his large frame is just starting to fill out. This, added to his speed and balance, will see him develop into a very dangerous outside back. Gutherson will start the year on the wing, and will compete with Auckland Nines top scorer Bevan French (probably starting in the NYC) for the role of NRL fullback of the future.

PLAYER MOVEMENT IN
Mitchell Cornish (Raiders)
Kieran Foran, Clinton Gutherson, James Hasson (Sea Eagles)
Michael Gordon (Sharks)
Michael Jennings (Roosters)
Cameron King, Scott Schulte, Kelepi Tanginoa (Cowboys)
Kieran Moss (Panthers)
Rory O'Brien (Dragons)
Beau Scott, Honeti Tuha (Knights)
Matthew Woods (Wests Tigers)

NYC Graduates
Bevan French, Tyrell Fuimaono, Alex Twal

PLAYER MOVEMENT OUT
Josh Aloiai (Wests Tigers)
Beau Champion, Richie Fa'aoso (retired)
Ben Crooks (ESL - Castleford)
Zach Dockar-Clay (Panthers)
Fabian Goodall, Halaufau Lavaka, Darcy Lussick (Sea Eagles)
Will Hopoate (Bulldogs)
Tui Kamikamica, Reece Robinson (rugby union)
Ryan Matterson (Roosters)
Eric Newbigging (released)
Pauli Pauli (Knights)
Joseph Paulo (Sharks)
Chris Sandow (ESL - Warrington)

BEST 17
1. Michael Gordon
2. Semi Radradra
3. Michael Jennings
4. Brad Takairangi
5. Clinton Gutherson
6. Corey Norman
7. Kieran Foran
8. Junior Paulo
9. Nathan Peats
10. Tim Mannah
11. Manu Ma'u
12. Beau Scott
13. Anthony Watmough

14. Cameron King
15. Kenny Edwards
16. Danny Wicks
17. Tepai Moeroa