PREVIEW: 2016 Origin II - QLD v NSW

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Another series on the line at "The Cauldron"

Game 3, 2005... That was the last time a New South Wales team tasted success at Suncorp Stadium in a potentially series deciding game. History shows, when Queensland have an opportunity to wrap up a series on their beloved home turf they generally do it, meaning the Blues will need to find something special to buck the trend come Wednesday night.

Only one change has been made to the triumphant Maroons team from game one with long serving hard-man Nate Myles succumbing to a knee injury while on club duty for the Sea Eagles in Round 14. 

Coming into the team is game one 18th man Jacob Lillyman who's no stranger to the Origin arena with 11 games under his belt, the most recent in which he played a stormer off the bench in the game three shellacking last year. Lillyman will play from the bench again meaning the bigger change is Josh McGuire's run-on debut. Myles is so respected by his teammates for doing a lot of the tough and gritty work that goes unnoticed leaving McGuire with some pretty big boots to fill.

The Maroons will be looking forward to a dry track at Suncorp and will be looking to use the football a lot more than the greasy conditions in game one allowed. With their champion play-makers of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston, along with the form Darius Boyd calling the shots, the Maroons should pose more of a threat with the ball in hand. 

In front of their parochial home crowd, the Maroons will be looking for their customary fast start. In game three last year, their aging forward pack looked like they were jumping out of the ground when running the ball and were hitting with hard solid shots in defence in the opening exchanges. Look for a similar effort from them in this one to try and get on top of the big Blues forward pack early.

The Blues have welcomed two fresh faces into their squad in debutantes Tyson Frizell and Jack Bird. 

Frizell comes into the seventeen for game one player's player Boyd Cordner who broke a bone in his foot in the game one encounter. Greg Bird will move from the bench into the run-on side taking over from Cordner as the left edge back-rower, a role he has handled with aplomb many times throughout his Origin career. After being on the periphery for a couple of years, Frizell gets his chance after being called in for the suspended Wade Graham and will be looking to make an impact off the bench.

A groin injury to Greg Inglis' long-time nemesis, Josh Morris at training last Friday sees the much talked about Dylan Walker come into the starting side at right centre where he will mark up on his former South Sydney teammate. With Walker relinquishing his much maligned utility duties, the high flying Jack Bird assumes the role off the bench for his Origin debut in just his second year of NRL action. 

The Blues will again be trying to lay a solid platform through their big forward pack, but will face an almighty test against a fired up Maroons outfit. If they can at least match it with Queensland in the opening twenty, they too will be looking to play a bit more footy on the dry fast track. 

The biggest question of course is where the Blues find their points?

When they get deep inside Queensland's half they will be looking to play a lot straighter in attack. On one of the few times the Blues played straight and at the line in game one they came up with their only points. Also, don't be surprised if they try a shock tactic of kicking early in the count to try and catch out Darius Boyd who often defends as an extra defender on his own goal-line. A well-timed grubber for a flying Michael Jennings or Dylan Walker could pose a threat.

The Blues shouldn't be waiting to get deep into Queensland's half to start attacking though. Whenever they get any sort of momentum through their forwards, look for some clean early ball to be hitting centres Michael Jennings and Dylan Walker with room to showcase their speed and evasive skills. This tactic could be particularly effective on the back of offloads from Andrew Fifita after defenders have been sucked in and the defence is on the back foot.

Last meeting: Game I 2016 - Blues 4 Maroons 6

On the back of a gritty defensive effort, the Maroons came away with a narrow victory in a low-scoring affair played in greasy slippery conditions.

Who to watch: After another reasonably quiet Origin performance in game one where Josh Morris again kept a lid on him, Greg Inglis will be looking to break the shackles in front of his home crowd in a more expansive game. Captain Cameron Smith has already promised Inglis will get more ball this time round and whilst he would have a lot of respect for former teammate Dylan Walker, the great "GI" must be licking his lips at the prospect of someone other than Morris in the NSW defensive line to unleash his big right palm on.

Coach Laurie Daley has stated he will be looking to give more game time to Andrew Fifita than the 24 minutes he was afforded in game one. In limited time, the enigmatic forward ran for 107 metres with 2 tackle busts and 3 offloads, causing headaches for Maroons defenders. With a big motor he's capable of playing at least twice the amount of minutes making him an even more imposing threat. With his tendency to skip across defenders before attacking his target in the defensive line, the dryer conditions should suit. Look for Matt Moylan to play a major support role whenever Fifita has the ball. His right arm offload could be the tonic to break the game open in the Blues favour.

The favourite: The Maroons have been heavily backed to wrap up another series on their home turf and go in as $1.55 favourites.

My tip: A fired-up Maroons will be charging out of the blocks in front of their home crowd and if the Blues aren't able to match them early, the Maroons could have the shield wrapped up before the halfway point of the series. Surely by now, the Blues know what's coming though, first twenty minutes will be key. If they can match them in this period and play to their strengths, their desperation of keeping the series alive (history does point to a decider more often than not) will get them over the line… New South Wales by 4.

1. Darius Boyd 2. Corey Oates 3. Greg Inglis 4. Justin O'Neill 5. Dane Gagai 6. Johnathan Thurston 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Matthew Scott 9. Cameron Smith 10. Jacob Lillyman 11. Matt Gillett 12. Sam Thaiday 13. Corey Parker
Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan 15. Josh Mcguire 16. Aidan Guerra 17. Josh Papalii

1. Matt Moylan 2. Blake Ferguson 3. Michael Jennings 14. Dylan Walker 5. Josh Mansour 6. James Maloney 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farah 10. James Tamou 15. Tyson Frizell 12. Josh Jackson 13. Paul Gallen
Interchange: 11. Greg Bird 16. David Klemmer 17. Andrew Fifita 18. Jack Bird

Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ben Cummins; Sideline Officials: Brett Suttor, Nick Beashel; Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Luke Patten, Ashley Klein