Storm v Raiders preview

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Will the Storm rain on Canberra's parade?

Spending the week off after triumphing over the Cowboys in the Qualifying Final, Melbourne return to AAMI Park on Saturday to take on a high-flying Canberra outfit, buoyed by a win over Penrith last weekend. Featuring in their eighth Preliminary Final since 2006, coach Craig Bellamy will have his side prepared after the disappointment of going down to North Queensland in the corresponding fixture last season, while the night also marks a special occasion for halfback Cooper Cronk, who will celebrate his 300th game for the club. In the only change from the side that triumphed 16-10 over the reigning premiers a fortnight ago, hulking forward Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been ruled out for the remainder of the year with an elbow injury. In his absence coach Bellamy has named Christian Welch in jersey 15, while veteran prop Matt White and 2016 regular Felise Kaufusi have been included as part of an extended squad. With late changes becoming common place for the Storm in 2016, expect further alterations which could include departing utility Ben Hampton making way, allowing Melbourne to carry an extra prop to help combat the Canberra forward pack.

Reaching their first Preliminary Final since Super League, the Raiders will be out to continue the resurgence under Ricky Stuart that has seen them claim 14 wins from their past 16 matches. Having been unable to capitalise after a strong first half against Cronulla a fortnight ago, the Raiders made amends last week to secure their place in the final four with a 22-12 win over Penrith. Fielding the same 17-man squad as last week, the Raiders will be optimistic about their chances, while the depth and success of the Canberra club can be seen by the performance of Mounties in the Intrust Super Premiership, with six members of the 2016 NRL squad set to feature in the ISP Grand Final against Illawarra on Sunday. Since taking the reigns as coach in 2014, Ricky Stuart has led the Green Machine to a 50% winning record against Craig Bellamy, while the Raiders hold the distinction of being the only side in the NRL to hold a positive win-loss record at AAMI Park.

Last meeting: Round 23 2016 - Raiders 22 Storm 8

Last Finals Meeting: Qualifying Final, 2003 - Canberra Raiders 18 Melbourne Storm 30

Who to watch: Celebrating his 300th first grade game for Melbourne on Saturday night, halfback Cooper Cronk will be out to mark the occasion by booking the Storm a place in the premiership decider. Having come into grade as a versatile utility 12 years ago, the 32-year-old Australian and Queensland representative will be hoping to make amends for the disappointment of last season, when the Cowboys proved too strong for Melbourne in the penultimate game of 2016. Fielding more NRL Grand Final experience alone than the entire Raiders side combined, look for Cronk to lift once more and help lead the Storm into their sixth decider in a decade.

Enjoying a career best season following his move from the Gold Coast, halfback Aidan Sezer will be looking to emulate the efforts of his coach by leading the Raiders to their first decider since 1994. Having shown glimpses of class during his four years at the Titans, the 25-year-old playmaker has developed into match winner throughout 2016, with his kicking game among the best in the NRL. Playing a leading role in the win over Melbourne a month ago, Sezer will be fully aware of what it takes to prevail over the Storm, and should he rise to the occasion the Raiders may well find themselves in Sydney next Sunday night.

Key Stats: Canberra will become the final team in the NRL era to reach a Preliminary Final. The only other time the Raiders have played a finals match in Melbourne was 1998; the Storm ran out 24-10 winners and Ricky Stuart played the last of 203 first grade matches for Canberra before making the move to Belmore.

The favourite: Well rested after a week off, the Melbourne Storm are expected to book a place in the decider on Saturday night.

My tip: With many predicting the downfall of Melbourne in recent years, look for the minor premiers to defy expectations and secure their place in the Grand Final. Storm by 14.

1. Cameron Munster 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Will Chambers 4. Cheyse Blair 5. Marika Koroibete 6. Blake Green 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Jordan McLean 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Tohu Harris 13. Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14. Kenneath Bromwich 15. Tim Glasby 16. Christian Welch 17. Ben Hampton

1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Junior Paulo 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliot Whitehead 13. Iosia Soliola
Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Luke Bateman 16. Paul Vaughan 17. Joseph Tapine

Referees: Matt Cecchin, Alan Shortall; Sideline Officials: Michael Wise, Jeff Younis; Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Ben Galea, Ashley Klein