Round 8 NRL
Preview

Things don?t get any easier as I sharpen up the HB pencil for this round?s picks. I banged out a regulation 5 from 7 last week with the upset out at Caltex Field and my overconfidence in Canterbury proving to be my downfall.

This leaves me on 32/49 (65%) for the year and things could be in worse shape. Again there?s some value out there with Parramatta being bandied about at $2.35 against Manly at the SCG. Best of luck in Round 8 as some punters start to open up gaps on the field in office tipping comps.

Panthers v Sharks

We start the round with a bit of a belly-flop on Friday night as the Panthers play host to the Sharks inside their revamped stadium at the foot of the mountains.

Penrith are terrible right now and the loss of Gower and Lewis only compounds their woes. Regular hooker and 2003 Churchilian Luke Priddis takes the unfamiliar role of halfback in what I think is a big mistake. I?m sure Preston Campbell is going to do his thing from five-eighth, but someone still needs to get the ball to the backs if they hope to score. You just don?t weaken the one position you have locked down so as to alleviate other problems around the field, particularly when the Panthers should be playing a forward contest and taking it through the middle of the park. I think this sends a bad message to the rank and file no.7?s in lower grades for Penrith.

Meanwhile, Cronulla are fresh off an upset victory over competition pacesetters the Cowboys and their spirits are sure to be running high. Ben Ross is playing against his old team for the first time and I bet they wish he was still there. That?s sure to play on his mind and I think the big fella with have a strong game just to show them what they?re missing out on. With Vagana back in the centres and a bit more versatility and impact on the bench, the Sharkies look pretty good all of a sudden.

I know it?s a home game and the re-opening of their new Government Grant, but based off form it?s hard to imagine the Panthers getting home here. I?m not sure why the Sharks are $2.15 outsiders, but I?m getting on them.

Cowboys v Roosters

Super Saturday kicks-off with a bang up in FNQ as the Cowboys take on the Roosters in a match that will generate plenty of interest.

As you?d expect, North Queensland are massive favourites here as the general public write last week?s loss against the Sharks down as an aberration of galactic proportions and begin to factor in the tough game against Newcastle the week prior as their undoing. I?m not prepared to go that far at this stage as I don?t think all is well up there. The coach has shuffled around his line-up plenty of times this season as the team are taking a bit of time to settle in to a rhythm. Settle I hear you say? Well if it wasn?t for the brilliance of Thurston and the explosiveness of Bowen I?m not sure where they?d be. All it will take is an off game from either of them and the Cowboys will struggle.

The Roosters travel there on a do-or-die mission. It?s not impossible, but pretty close to it. Zoolander is apparently having a confidence crisis and the mounting injury toll isn?t stemming overnight. But despite all this I?ve got to admit they looked good in patches against the Dragons as I viewed the match from behind the posts on Tuesday. And whilst the weather brought them back into the game, at times I thought Easts looked pretty good. They?ll have to attack the Cowboys forwards if they are to stand any chance and then hope they can get it to the likes of Roberts and Paea out wide.

The Roosters don?t have much firepower left though, and I doubt their pop-gun can match the artillery waiting for them up north. The Cowboys should get back on the straight and narrow.

Storm v Dragons

Next we travel from the furthest reaches north to our most southern tip where the Dragons visit the Storm in Melbourne for their second game in a row at home. To begin with there are a few doubts lingering over several players. Cronk looks like he?s out, paving the way for the possible return of dropped playmaker Scott Hill. Inglis has been named but will he play after suffering a knock to the knee last week? The answer is probably. And Head for the Dragons is a little unsure of how his knee will pull up with only four days of recovery.

Overall, the short turnaround for the Dragons should be enough to spell their doom. It?s a very tough obstacle to clear and you can?t blame them if Melbourne simply has too much gas in the tank. Plus, the Dragons? record against the Storm is less than desirable, winning 4 from their 14 encounters with a draw chucked in for good measure. And the last time the Dragons won at Olympic Park was in the 1999 opening round semi-final.

Whilst Young is back from suspension for the Dragons, Ryles is again on the injured list and the aggression of the Melbourne pack lead by Crocker and Kidwell should be enough to see them home. I think it will be a great game though as these two teams have a bit of history and enjoy playing against each other.

Broncos v Raiders

Next we?re back in the Sunshine State as the Broncos line-up against the Raiders at the ground formerly known as Lang Park.

Back in the 1990?s this match would have been a screamer. So many people, myself included, desperately wanted to see a Brisbane/Canberra grand final, but alas, it wasn?t to be. Things have certainly changed, but if the Broncos aren?t careful Canberra will catch them napping.

Coming off the bye is never straightforward and that?s why I?m going to tip Brisbane. But I?ve got this uneasy feeling inside me that say?s they?re due for a loss. I?m not sure that they?ve been tested for the past couple of weeks, although Civoniceva and Hodges have been in outstanding form. With the arsenal at the disposal of the Broncos, you can?t help but feel sorry for Canberra.

But this is where people get caught out and I?d be lying if I said I can pick the Raiders from a mile away. Truth is, they?re an unpredictable outfit who thrive on the underdog status and rejoice in being written off. I?m not going to overlook their chances, but given they had the week off, I think they?ll struggle. Brisbane should bring home the chocolates here.

Warriors v Bulldogs

Sunday begins early for those on the mainland, with the Warriors and the Bulldogs kicking-off at midday, providing the perfect excuse to crack open a tinnie.

I?m a little confused in this one and it would appear that the bookies are too, offering no clear favourite. New Zealand beat up the hapless Rabbitohs at home last week but had been improving consistently leading into that game I thought. They?ve also finally moved into positive points on the ladder, so that?s sure to enhance the mood around the club.

Canterbury are a different story. They struggled for cohesion in the halves last week and now Reni Maitua has been dropped due to his little drink-driving episode. This will further rupture the creativity with Brent Sherwin unable to be called up thanks to a broken hand. Whilst the Canterbury forwards could match it with Manly?s pack last week, the Sea Eagles proved that you need to be able to move the ball to score. Sadly, it doesn?t look like the Doggies are capable of doing this. Another thing they need to do is forget about Sonny-Bill?s reputation. I think they?ve all been expecting him to lay-on try after try but things aren?t that easy in this game.

I?m sticking with the Warriors here, but it?s one of the harder games to pick this week. By the way, what did Rovelli do to get dropped to the bench?

Rabbitohs v Knights

There?s a good reason that betting has been suspended on this game ? Andrew Johns. But that at least tells you that the bookies rate Souths as some sort of chance, despite their abhorrent display in New Zealand last week. And why wouldn?t they? After all, the Knights got a royal touch-up in Melbourne.

But how do you consider the Bunnies here? First of all, Joey has to be ruled out. Next, they?re going to have to put in a performance like they did against the Bulldogs, but everything has to stick this time. And lastly, they really need to muscle up in the forwards. Newcastle?s forwards are no push-overs and they?ll look to dominate the Rabbitohs through the ruck and play percentage football.

It?s difficult just to imagine this scenario, let alone it manifesting itself on the football field. Newcastle should run rough-shod over the Rabbitohs and get back on the path of their winning ways. Joey?s availability will be an interesting talking point though. If he doesn?t play, does that mean he?s saving himself for the Test match, or is there more to this ankle injury than we know?

Sea Eagles v Eels

The final game of the week sees Rugby League strut its stuff in its spiritual home of the S.C.G., with Manly and Parra recreating the aura of their early-80?s grand final clashes. Remember those Toohey?s ads: ?Here we go again, Manly and Parra?? Ahhh, those were the days.

Well, this should be an interesting one. The Sea Eagles have some good runs on the board of late and are beginning to resemble the Wests Tigers of 2005. A slowish start, but no injuries and some talented players in key positions makes for a compelling story. I?m not going to say they can win the G.F. from here, but is anyone prepared to say they can?t? One thing that I?m just not down with is their appeal for respect. Last season they felt the need to announce themselves as heavyweights before travelling to Brisbane, where they were promptly KO?d in the first round and ended up flat-lining back at the hospital.

That probably won?t happen this week, but the Eels have plenty of points in them. Like the Sharks, I think they?ll feel as though a giant burden has been lifted from their neck and are now able to play in the fashion they so desire. Parra have a superb line-up and I?m sure they?ll remember how to play when they get on that field. There?s nothing to say they can?t win this one and they did come away victorious in the last clash between the sides at this famous ground, which just happened to be the 1984 Grand Final.

Despite this, I?m leaning towards the Sea Eagles who look on the up.

The Wests Tigers have the bye this week and should keep in touch with the pack as a result. They are missing their two key players in Marshall and Hodgson with last week?s surrender to the Eels evidence of this. Still, I think they?re a long way from done in this comp and watch for them to bounce back when all hands are on deck.