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Wales crashed out of the European Nations Cup in Glasgow on Sunday after losing 30-22 to Scotland. The Bravehearts must now beat Ireland by three clear points on Friday in Navan to secure a place in the Final.
It was indiscipline that cost Wales a win but they never looked near to getting the 14-point victory that they needed to remain in the competition.
Errors dominated the first 15 minutes as both sets of players took their time to get used to the greasy surface following half a day of torrential rain.
After two clear chances to score were wasted by each side, it was Scotland who got on the scoresheet first, Andy McPhail finishing off a fine passing move to ground in the corner.
Just minutes later, Wales took the lead for the only time in the game, a fine set of passes allowing Ian Watson to cross, Mark Lennon converting to give Wales a 6-4 lead.
But it was Scotland who went in with an 18-6 half-time advantage. Following a Danny Brough penalty, his first of four for the day, Ian Marsh's excellent run set up Spencer Miller to ground under the posts.
And just on half-time, a 40-metre mazy run from Brough set up Dave McConnell to force his way over. Jamie Bloem converted both tries.
Wales fought back in the second half and had they not given away three more penalties, all within kicking distance from the golden boot of Brough, the game could have swung an intirely different way.
Steve Thomas was first on the board for Wales, a neat one-two with conversion scorer Lennon allowing him to ground under the posts.
Following Brough's second penalty, Aled James was next on the scoresheet for Wales selling a sweet dummy to the Scots defence to weave his way through in the corner and following Brough's hat-trick of kicks, Bryn Powell levelled the scores to 22-22 after running clean through the Scots defence, Lennon converting.
However Scotland set-up their showdown on Friday after the try of the match on 72 minutes. A 70 metre run from Bloem setting up Roach. Man-of-the-match Brough converted before adding his fourth penalty to complete a crucial win.
The winners of the Ireland v Scotland match will meet the winners of the France v England match next Saturday in Avignon.
Scotland squad: N Graham (Batley), J Roach (Swinton), A McPhail (Glasgow Bulls), J Bloem (Halifax), I Marsh (Oldham), D McConnell (Leigh), D Brough (York), A Henderson (Balmain), J Howieson (Sheffield Eagles), A Szostak (Bradford), M Tunstall (Workington), N Lowe (Salford), S Miller (Whitehacen). Subs: A Brown (Fife Lions), C Birchall (Halifax), P Shaw (Loughborough), R Marshall (Arran).
Wales: Damien Gibson (Castleford Tigers), Hefin O'Hare (Huddersfield Giants),Kris Tassell (Unattached), Adam Hughes (Widnes Vikings), Bryn Powell (Salford City Reds), Mark Lennon (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles), Ian Watson (Oldham),Gareth Price (Rochdale Hornets), Dave Clarke (Barrow Raiders), Gareth Dean (Workington), Jordan James (Sheffield Eagles), Steve Thomas (London Broncos), Barry Pugh (Barrow Raiders). Subs: Aled James (Sheffield Eagles), Nathan Strong (Bridgend Blue Bulls), Tom Brown (Coventry RFC), Lewis Taylor (Leeds Rhinos).