NSW v QLD: Origin II preview

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New South Wales v Queensland Wednesday 8:00pm at Optus Stadium, Burswood / Whadjuk

The NSW Blues will be looking to keep the State of Origin shield down south next Wednesday night when they face a desperate Queensland Maroons side in Perth.

For the Blues, it represents a chance for them to win back-to-back series for the first time since 2018-19 and all pressure is on the Queenslanders, especially after coach Billy Slater made the massive call to axe captain and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans.

In these sort of must-win situations, coaches will often lean into their experience but instead Slater has opted to elevate Tom Dearden from the bench into the starting side while his halves partner Cameron Munster takes on the captaincy. 

That is just the start of the changes for the Maroons though, with Kurt Capewell and Trent Loiero starting in the second row and at lock respectively while Kurt Mann is the fresh face off the bench.

Patrick Carrigan, meanwhile, drops back to the bench. 

As for the Blues, Laurie Daley initially made just the one forced change with Stefano Utoikamanu onto the bench for the injured Mitch Barnett.

But in an additional blow they later lost Mitchell Moses mid-week to a calf injury, seeing Jarome Luai recalled to the fold to partner former Panthers teammate Nathan Cleary.

The Blues won the series opener 18-6 in Brisbane after a dominant display from their forward pack, with five players running for 90 metres or more compared to just two for the Maroons.

New South Wales' wingers were also heavily involved when it came to giving Moses and Cleary a strong platform to play off, with Brian To'o and Zac Lomax combining for 381 metres.

Lomax, of course, was also an aerial threat to counteract the distinct advantage Queensland had targeting To'o and was unlucky not to win man of the match honours, with Payne Haas instead deemed best on the ground.

For the Blues, they can take confidence out of the fact both Moses and Cleary had off nights on the boot.

Obviously Cleary was particularly poor from a goal-kicking standpoint, but their general kicking game was supposed to be one of their greatest strengths and the fact the Blues won so decidedly without having to rely on either dominant playmaker was impressive.

Of course, Cleary still had an impact with the ball in hand, playing a part in all four of NSW's tries and the Blues will take comfort in knowing even without Moses, they can lean on an experienced halves pairing like Cleary and Luai.

The same can't be true for the Maroons given the amount of changes they have made, starting with the fact Dearden and Munster are a complete contrast to Cleary and Moses.

Neither are dominant long-range kicking options in club land, although Dearden has developed that side of his game since Chad Townsend's departure.

In terms of numbers to know for game two, Queensland has a horror record at Perth, albeit in a small sample size, having lost both games by a combined score of 82-18.

Meanwhile, the Blues have won the opening Origin game 20 times and went on to wrap up the series with a victory in game two just over half of the time (11).

Last meeting: Series 2025 - QLD 6 NSW 18

Who to watch: The decision to move Patrick Carrigan back to the bench is an interesting one from coach Slater. He has already copped criticism for persisting with Cotter in the second row and promoting Capewell along with Loiero seems to indicate Slater is looking to get maximum impact from his bench. After all, those three players are all high-workrate toilers who will churn through the metres and tackles but don't pose the same ball-playing threat as Carrigan. Maybe the plan is to inject Carrigan into the game later so that his more varied skillset can be better used against tiring defenders. It could turn out to be a genius plan from Slater or, if the Blues are already well ahead at that point, he could come under further scrutiny for not using his best players from the opening minute.

As for the Blues, it will be interesting to see how Stefano Utoikamanu performs given at one point it looked like his Origin career may have already ended with just one forgettable stint bench. But a move to Melbourne has brought the best out of the former Tiger and he has been rewarded with a recall by a new coach in Daley. Brad Fittler famously played Utoikamanu for just 12 minutes in his Origin debut only to then dump him, with the Storm prop saying at the time he was told he was being "rested". Now, Utoikamanu has the chance to make up for lost time and prove why he deserves much more of a look-in for the Blues.

The favourite: The Blues were well-backed to wrap up the series in Perth, but Moses' omission has tightened the odds.

My tip: Losing Moses is a big blow, but the fact the Blues can rely on a tried and tested halves pairing like Luai and Cleary is a luxury. NSW by 8.

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Max King 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Stefano Utoikamanu 18. Matt Burton 19. Keaon Koloamatangi 20. Lindsay Smith

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tom Dearden 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Trent Loiero 14. Kurt Mann 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Jeremiah Nanai 17. Patrick Carrigan 18. Ezra Mam 19. Jack Howarth 20. Corey Horsburgh

Referees: Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Chris Sutton, Dave Munro; Video Referees: Chris Butler;