Finals Week 1: Storm v Rabbitohs preview
When the final siren sounds on Friday night, one of the Storm and Rabbitohs will be one game away from the big dance.
Since the Brisbane Broncos of 1992-93, no team has been able to claim back-to-back premierships. And there's a reason that few sides have been able to do just that. Typically, the year after you win a title, you are immediately the target. Every single one of the other 15 sides in the competition aim up just to be able to say that they took down the defending premiers. It happened to the Sharks in 2017. They finished the regular season in fifth position and were bundled out of the finals in week one.
This Melbourne Storm outfit is different though. There's every chance they claim their third-straight minor premiership last week if they don't rest several of their stars. Yet they still finished the season in second position and will take the first step towards history if they win on Friday night.
That's easier said than done though. Not since 2004 have the defending premiers won their first game in the finals.
Helping their cause is the return of their injured brigade. Cameron Munster, Suliasi Vunivalu and Brandon Smith have all been named to make their comeback while Billy Slater is back in the fullback jumper after missing last week's game due to personal reasons.
South Sydney have had a relatively settled end to the 2018 season and burst back into form last week with a dominant 51-10 win over the Tigers. Sometimes it is preferable to have a genuine test in your final hit out before the finals but the 41-point win is exactly what the Rabbitohs needed as they halted a worrying three-game losing streak.
The victory coincided with the return of Robert Jennings, which saw South Sydney's lethal backline finally reunited after a string of injuries derailed their minor premiership hopes.
The Rabbitohs may not have won in Melbourne but they will be confident of reversing the trend on Friday night after toppling the Storm 30-20 earlier this year. That win was inspired by an electric performance by hooker Damien Cook but the talented rake can't do it all himself. Rather, he needs a rampaging forward pack to lay the platform for him so he has the space to roam.
Without it, the Storm may just strangle the Rabbitohs out of this one.
Last meeting: Round 21 2018 - Rabbitohs 30 Storm 20, ANZ Stadium
Last finals meeting: Qualifying Final 2013 - Rabbitohs 20 Storm 10, ANZ Stadium
Who to watch: On that fateful night at ANZ Stadium, the Storm were monstered. Not one of their big men ran for over 83 metres. The Rabbitohs had six who cracked the 100 mark, including Sam Burgess, who ran for over 200 metres. For all the flashes of brilliance they have, Melbourne need their forward pack to stand up or risk elimination football next week. And they'll need even more punch without starting front rower Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Jesse Bromwich provided that last week with 153 running metres from 55 minutes but in a side lacking impact up front, he may need to step up even more.
While Cook may be the Bunnies' most dangerous man, his powers aren't as effective when he isn't running off the back of a charging George Burgess. Burgess has enjoyed a breakout season in 2018, overcoming years of inconsistency to prove one of South Sydney's best up front. His performance against Melbourne in Round 21 highlighted exactly what he can do. The barnstorming prop ran for 148 metres and made 21 tackles from just 44 minutes, providing Cook with quick play-the-balls and plenty of space to roam. If he plays a similar role on Friday night it will go a long way to securing victory for Anthony Seibold's men.
Favourite: Melbourne are slight favourites with the home ground advantage.
My tip: South Sydney have the clear advantage up front and should power to the preliminary finals. Rabbitohs by 6.
Outcome: The loser of the Second Qualifying Final will face the Broncos v Dragons winner next week at their home ground (either AAMI Park or ANZ Stadium). The winner hosts a preliminary final in Week 3.
