Round 5: Broncos v Roosters preview
Broncos, Roosters Battle It Out In Brisbane For Third Win of the Season
After a start to the year which had many pundits wondering if 2022 may perhaps be the year the Broncos return to to the top 8, Rounds 3 and 4 have brought the once proud Brisbane based club right back down to Earth. Two straight heavy defeats at the hands of the Cowboys and Warriors, neither of whom are tipped to be amongst the contenders at the end of the year, will have Kevin Walters scrambling for fast answers.
Their job doesn't get any easier this week against the Sydney Roosters, who themselves haven't exactly been the beacon of consistency so far, with a dissapointment, followed by a strong win, followed by another disappointment, followed by, you guessed it, another strong win being the story so far for the Bondi boys. They will be hoping to get their first consecutive victory for the year when they head up to Brisbane on Friday.
The Broncos attack has yet to click in 2022. They have averaged only 11.25 points per game as a team so far, which simply is nowhere near enough to consistently win games in the NRL. They were only able to put one try on the board last week against the Warriors, a team which going into that game was giving up an average of 20 points per game, and that sole four-pointer was from some Adam Reynolds individual brilliance in an otherwise uninspiring set.
The Broncos extremely high error rate doesn't help this; Selwyn Cobbo and Kotoni Staggs are first and second in the league for errors with 17 and 11 respectively, while Tesi Niu's positioning defensively as a fullback also needs to improve.
The Roosters start to the season has been the definition of hot and cold. At their attacking worst, they key spine players have certainly been guilty of trying to force plays that weren't on, their game against the Rabbitohs being a prime example of this. However, they have also shown glimpses of what they're capable of at their best; they essentially won their games against Manly and the Cowboys with first half attacking blitzes.
The main reason the Roosters have been so successful over the last decade or so has been their defence. It was no surprise that as soon as their defence regressed, they stopped winning games against elite teams. It has therefore been a refreshing sight for fans of the Red, White and Blue that the famous "bondi wall" is showing signs of returning. They only conceded 4 last week against the Cowboys, and have made numerous goal-line stands of multiple sets that the Roosters last year simply don't make.
Against the below-average attack of the Broncos, the Roosters will certainly have a goal of keeping them to single digits or somewhere in that vicinity.
In team news, Billy Walters will start at five-eighth for the Broncos as a replacement for the injured Albert Kelly. Tom Flegler has been suspended until Round 7, meaning Palasia will start in the front row, while Capewell and Riki return to the back row, pushing Robati to the bench. Pat Carrigan is expected to be out until Round 10 with a knee injury, meaning Kobe Hetherington will make his first start of the year at lock. Corey Jensen and Cory Paix are the two new faces on the bench.
The Roosters have stuck with the same 17 that defeated the Cowboys last week, with Kevin Naiqama maintaining his spot on the wing after a strong showing. Connor Watson has again been named to start at hooker, however expect Robinson to make the usual late change with Hutchison.
Last meeting: Round 22 2021 - Broncos 20 Roosters 21
Who to watch: After injury affected much of his 2021 campaign, Kotoni Staggs has struggled to find form so far in 2022. As mentioned above, he is 2nd in the competition for errors made with 11, while he was recently dominated by Valentine Holmes in the Broncos matchup against the Cowboys. Last week, he produced the mediocre numbers of 12 runs for 76 metres without breaking the line, however he did bust four tackles, showing that the explosive talent Rugby League fans have come to know is certainly still in there somewhere. This week, he will match up against Paul Momirovski, who has at times been suspect in defence for the Roosters this season. Broncos fans will certainly be hoping to see Staggs return to form sooner rather than later, and you get the feeling they'll need a big one from him if they are to be any hope of causing an upset.
Victor Radley had a welcome return to form for the Roosters last week. After being embarrassed by the Rabbitohs and Cameron Murray the week prior, Radley clearly came out with a point to prove against the Cowboys and did so in emphatic fashion, scoring a try to go with 19 runs for 163 metres as well as 2 line breaks, 4 tackle busts and an offload. He was also a brick wall defensively, making 37 tackles and missing just 1. While much is made of Radley's ability to dig into the line and ball play for the Roosters, which is certainly a pivotal part of the teams attack, he can at times become preoccupied with doing so and forget that he is also a damaging ball runner, which can allow opposition teams to effectively prepare for the ball playing and negate it's effectiveness. Last week, Radley got back to primarily acting as a ball runner, while also using his ball playing to contribute to one of the Roosters' first half tries. If this version of Victor the inflictor can hang around, it'll go a long way to improving the Roosters' chances of competing with the elite teams of the competition.
The favourite: The Roosters are 13.5 point favourites over the Broncos at the time of writing.
My tip: The Broncos haven't shown anywhere near enough with the ball in hand for me to consider picking them against a team like the Roosters. Roosters by 14.
