Round 5: Raiders v Storm preview
Raiders look to defy awful record and pull off the upset against competition heavyweights
The NRL's regional road trip continues as the Canberra Raiders return to McDonald's Park, Wagga Wagga to go head to head with the Melbourne Storm. This will be Canberra's third season taking a game to the people of Wagga Wagga, in that span possessing a 50% strike rate at this venue, which also coincides with the 50th meeting of these two sides since Melbourne entered the competition in 1998.
Canberra come into this clash after a challenging opening month to the season that has been marred by inconsistent play and a lack of continuity in the way that they have played. This clash with one of the competition heavyweights will give a true indication of where the Raiders are at through the opening stages of the season.
For Canberra to have a chance of securing an upset, their forwards need to lift considerably. They were rolled through the middle by a Manly pack that hadn't really fired up to this point. Look for Joe Tapine and Hudson Young to lift their game and help Josh Papalii through the middle third and fatigue the Storm's big pack. Their backline has been consistently reshuffled with a change it seems every week, but one man that is under an incredible amount of pressure is Charnze Nicol-Klokstad. With boom rookie Xavier Savage waiting in the wings, it's time for ‘CNK' to ignite his season and hold his fullback jersey for the remainder of the season, his workload at the back was what made him an elite fullback a few seasons ago, expect him to be searching for the ball and looking to become involved when Canberra have the footy. Ricky Stuart has opted not to change his 17 drastically after last week's loss. Expect Matt Frawley to start at hooker even though he has been named in jersey 14.
Melbourne on the other hand has had their fair share of injury problems to start the year. Losing their captain and leader Christian Welch for the season after one round is a tough pill to swallow for their supporters. However, there's been some signs through the opening three rounds that Melbourne's defence isn't at the levels we've come to expect from them in recent seasons, leaking three tries late against South Sydney (albeit they were down to 12 men) as well as conceding 28 points against Parramatta last weekend, their most points conceded by the Storm since Round 21 2018. Melbourne was however bolstered during the week by three key re-signings of Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes and Xavier Coates which will stop Wayne Bennett from further raiding Melbourne's playing roster to some extent.
Melbourne rebounded off a heartbreaking extra-time loss with a slaughter of Canterbury-Bankstown last week where their defence answered back to the critics. Ryan Papenhuyzen continued his purple patch with a personal tally of 28 points last Sunday. Melbourne's lethal right edge of Hughes, Olam and Coates continued to give the opposition nightmares and with Canberra struggling last week with their left edge defence, it could present the Storm with countless attacking opportunities. With Papenhuyzen always looming out the back, Melbourne could strike on the overlap with devastating results. As far as the team news is concerned, Cameron Munster was cleared by the match review committee of ‘dropping the knees' into Canterbury fullback Matt Dufty and will be free to take his place. Brandon Smith will have to remain on the bench with Josh King continuing to impress in the 13 jumper to start season 2022.
Last meeting: Round 22 2021 - Storm 26 Raiders 16
Who to watch: With Canberra losing Josh Hodgson next season, their future is dependent on the emergence of young hooker Tom Starling. Canberra supporters are getting an early glimpse of life without Hodgson as he sits out the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Starling has largely been used off the bench by Ricky Stuart so far in his career to avoid the ‘roughening up' period. This allows Starling to come into the game around the 20-25 minute mark which allows him to exploit a tired middle third. Starling's running game was noticeably missing last week after a strong performance a fortnight ago against the Titans. Look for Starling's running game to set up the attack for Jack Wighton and Brad Schnider on Saturday afternoon.
Melbourne's Cameron Munster is the only big-name player not to have resigned with the club so far. You have to think that the contract saga has affected his form to some extent to start season 2022. Look for Munster to be back to his scintillating best on Saturday afternoon with his combinations on the left-hand edge giving the Canberra defence some things to think about. If he can fire with the brilliance he's possessed over the course of his magnificent career, it'll be a long day for the Raiders in Wagga.
The favourite: No surprise that the Storm comes into this one as the hot favourite. They present a strong head to head record against the Raiders since entering the NRL in 1998 winning on 35 occasions with only 14 losses.
My tip: Melbourne looks to be coming into the season now, with last weekend's big win over Canterbury. Their class and experience will over-run a Canberra side in the final wash-up. Canberra will be competitive as they try and bounce back from their poor performance in Mudgee last Saturday. The history of this clash suggests that it won't be a runaway victory so the score will be competitive. Melbourne by 12.
