Round 13: Titans v Cowboys preview
Cowboys look to maintain status as Queensland's top dogs against frustrating Titans
It seemed as though the Titans were the side that would carry the torch for Queensland Rugby League in first grade for years to come. They were the only team out of themselves, the Broncos and Cowboys to qualify for the finals in 2021, something which appeared to accurately reflect how functional all 3 clubs were on and off the field. Then the first half of 2022 happened, and it proved that no one ever really knows anything in this great game. The Cowboys and Broncos are sitting pretty in the top 4, while the Titans are back in a position they know all two well, just one win above the wooden spoon. That's not to say they don't have the talent to match it with the majority of the teams above them. Last week proved that as they jumped out to a 20-point lead against recently re-appointed big brother the Broncos. But, in almost an identical turn of events to the same fixture 12 months prior, Brisbane came back and eventually won comfortably. It is the second time this season that the Titans have squandered a lead of 20 points or more, having given up a 22-0 advantage against the Raiders in Round 3. It shows an extremely concerning lack of resilience and back bone amongst the men from the Gold Coast, who, for all their recent plaudits around completing a successful rebuild, have still yet to achieve a winning record since 2010. In many ways, they are the polar opposite of their opposition this week, and that is not a good thing.
The Cowboys have been the major surprise packets of 2022. They were wooden spoon favourites and did nothing to quell those expectations with a horrid opening round showing against Canterbury. Since then, they have embraced the underdog mentality and boast the second best defence in the league. Many were questioning Todd Payten's coaching after a disaster 2021 campaign, but his side's performances have proven there was a method to the madness, and the former Tiger is now surely a shoe-in for the coach of the year award. He has overseen players like Scott Drinkwater, Tom Dearden, Reece Robson and Reuben Cotter, among others, hit career best form. They had a tough loss to the Panthers last week, who continue to be several classes above the nearest competition. However, despite not scoring a point, there were still some encouraging signs for the Cowboys. They had a measly 43% of possession and were still able to limit the best attack in the comp to only 22 points. They also completed at a dismal 62%, but we have seen enough from them this year to know that this was an anomaly and not the norm (they average 78% - 6th highest in the NRL). When you take into account that there were several occasions the Cowboys came extremely close to crossing the stripe, and that they actually made more tackle break than Penrith (34 to 30), there is no reason to think that they cannot improve between now and September to become genuine premiership contenders.
The only reason this game has any chance of being close at all is because of the player outs due to origin/miscellaneous, and they are as follows.
For the Titans, Esan Marsters will have to come off the bench for his revenge game as Patrick Herbert returns from injury to the centres. Toby Sexton is good to go after a shoulder scare last week, while Fotuaika returns as prop, allowing Isaac Liu to cover Maroons star Tino Faasuamaleaui at lock. David Fifita will miss another 2 or 3 weeks after re-aggravating a knee injury in last week's loss to Brisbane.
It's changes galore for the Cowboys. The Hammer moves to centre to cover Val Holmes (origin), while Brendan Elliot will make his first NRL appearance since Round 14, 2020, lining up on the wing, while Ben Hampton is in at five-eighth for Tom Dearden, who is Queensland's 18th man. Coen Hess moves to prop and Luki to second row for Cotter and Nanai respectively (both origin). Jason Taumalolo is a timely inclusion at lock, while Connelly Lemuelu rounds out the bench.
Last meeting: Round 7 2022 - Cowboys 30 Titans 4
Who to watch: To blow a 20 point lead, you first have to gain a 20 point lead, and last week Toby Sexton was instrumental in fooling the Rugby League world that the Titans were back for 45 odd minutes. It was one of Sexton's best performances as Gold Coast's starting halfback in his young career and will do plenty to reassure the clubs higher-ups that he is the long term solution at the important position. In just 48 minutes of game time, Sexton was able to put up the stats of 2 try assists, 1 line break assist, a tackle break and 2 forced drop-outs. His showing also opened things up for AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell, who each looked untouchable at different stages of the first half. The spine was, and remains, one of the big question marks hanging over the Titans for this season, and it's no coincidence that their best 40 minutes of football (spearheaded by their halfback) saw them take a 20-point lead over a team in the top 4. The main challenge for Sexton, and his 16 teammates for that matter, is to show consistency not only week to week, but half to half.
After getting off to a rocky start with the Cowboys, Reece Robson is finally morphing into the player that the previous regime envisioned he would when he was brought over from the Dragons in the 2019 offseason. We've seen flashes of his attacking prowess over the last 2 years, and he certainly has the ability to be an elite player with ball in hand when he needs to be, but it's his constant reliability in defence that should be applauded in 2022. Last week, against the best attack in Rugby League, Robson played 80 minutes, made 52 tackles and missed just 2, a herculean effort against any opposition. He's played the full 80 for five consecutive weeks now, a welcome development considering how unstable the hooking position has been for the Cowboys in recent years. Averaging about 2 tackle breaks a week, look for Robson to play a more probing role in and around the ruck against a Titans side missing it's best player in Faasuamaleaui.
The favourite: At the time of writing, the Cowboys are 5.5 point favourites on the road against the Titans.
My tip: I was high on the Titans last week and tipped them as an upset. Never again. Cowboys by 14.
