Round 19: Dragons v Sea Eagles preview
Last chance saloon for the Red V?
After two months, the Dragons return to their spiritual Kogarah home ground and it's a tricky one. A poor showing over the last fortnight has seen them slide to 11th after spending parts of the Origin period in the top eight, and the home fans on Friday night will be hoping for a change in form to help their finals chances.
The biggest concern for St George Illawarra when they take to the Jubilee Oval turf will be defence. After a low-scoring slog in the rain against the Raiders in Round 16, they've since conceded scores of 32 and 54 against Brisbane and the Roosters, and if they give Manly too much of a sniff, the boys from Brookie will have little trouble in tearing them apart.
The Sea Eagles, meanwhile, will don 1996 commemorative jerseys in Friday night's clash - a tribute to the premiership side of that year who defeated St George at the SFS to secure the side's sixth premiership. A replica result would no doubt please the visitors, who come into the contest having lost just one match from their last five and now find themselves inside the top eight - at the Dragons' expense.
In that run of wins, Manly has managed to score points for fun as well. Topping 40 twice - against the Warriors and Knights - their lowest score since the start of June was 26 against the Cowboys, a match they lost by two points.
They've also had the advantage of a home crowd across four of those five games - without such support this week, the question remains how they might perform.
There is mixed news on both sides of the teamlists. Tariq Sims is back for the hosts after picking up a suspension a fortnight ago which kept him out of the side's loss to the Roosters last Saturday. Moses Suli is out with an ankle injury, which sees Mbye move into the centres and Jayden Sullivan earn a recall on the bench. Aaron Woods is the player to make way.
Manly are without representative lock Jake Trbojevic, who has been struck down by COVID-19. In his place, Toff Sipley moves to lock and Taniela Paseka joins the bench.
Last meeting: Round 18 2021 - Sea Eagles 32 Dragons 18
Who to watch: It goes without saying but Queensland teammates Ben Hunt and Daly Cherry-Evans will be decisive factors in the outcome of this match.
After a his match-winning heroics for the Maroons in Game III, Hunt's performance at Gosford last Saturday was admirable but ultimately he couldn't guide the Red V to any sort of respectable result. With Jayden Sullivan nestled on the bench for this one and Moses Mbye in the backline, his link with the backline could well be a stronger one though - and their attack could improve as a result.
DCE meanwhile, was in vintage form as the Sea Eagles destroyed Newcastle on home turf last week, setting up three tries and even assuming goalkicking duties as he backed up from Origin in elite fashion. This week's challenge will be doing it all without experienced lock Jake Trbojevic laying the platform.
The favourite: Manly are comfortable favourites as their form line would suggest.
My tip: While the Dragons will likely step up defensively for this one, knowing what's on the line, it's hard to see Manly's class giving their opponents too much of a sniff. A low-scorer awaits. Manly by 6.
