Round 20: Warriors v Storm preview
Warriors Look To Maintain Perfect Mt Smart Record Against Struggling Storm
The Warriors and the Storm come into this Friday evening match with different stakes that are both important in their own right. The Warriors, whilst not setting the world on fire, have looked a better team since their 20-point victory in their return home to New Zealand and will be hoping to provide some more joy to their loyal supporters, who for only the second time in three years will have the opportunity to watch their team live.
The Storm have not only lost their last four matches, they have lost them convincingly, and are in desperate need of a win to hopefully see them regain the blistering form they were in to start the season. Granted, injuries to regular starting members of their backline haven't been ideal, but their side on paper should not have performed as poorly as they have since Round 16. The run of losses has seen them finish Round 18 outside of the top four for the first time since 2015, when they also sat fifth. Melbourne's recent poor form has seen them drop back to the pack in terms of ladder positioning. After 9 weeks, they were equal first on the table with a 2 game advantage on the next non-Penrith team in the Cowboys. They now find themselves 2 games behind North Queensland and tied with the Eels and Rabbitohs, two sides they have lost to this season with a rematch against Parramatta looming. If they are to miss the top four, the next best thing would be to lock in a home elimination final by finishing 5th or 6th.
The Warriors are a team who are all but finished in 2022, remaining only a dreaded mathematical chance at making the finals, with the analytics giving them less than a 3% chance at returning to the 8 for the first time since 2018. It's fair to say that the best case scenario for them is to win their remaining three home games against the Storm, Bulldogs and Titans to give their long suffering supporters some source of optimism for 2023. While the days of the Warriors being a bogey side for Melbourne are long gone, the Kiwi franchise will probably give themselves a fair shot at causing the upset against their out of sorts opponents. Last week, the Warriors jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead against the more fancied Raiders, however collapsed in the second forty, giving up 26 unanswered points to lose by 12. Their first 12 points came before the Raiders even had a chance to possess the ball in the first 8 minutes, and for the rest of the half their defence held up. The second half was complete one-way traffic, with the Warriors only having 31% of possession and completing a total of 9 sets. Once momentum swung against them, they couldn't find a way to overcome it. The Storm themselves haven't been great at taking advantage of statistical dominance in recent weeks, with their usually crisp attack faltering more often than not. Two rounds ago, the Storm led the Raiders at half time in runs, run metres, tackle busts, post-contact metres and line-breaks, but found themselves down by 8-points on the scoreboard. They are going to need to be better in this department against a Warriors side who, while susceptible to longer periods of poor defensive play, have no trouble converting opportunities into quick points, having scored two tries inside a five-minute period for two consecutive weeks now. With two teams who have shown that they struggle to turn the tide in their favour when things start going against them, you get the feeling that whoever starts the better of the two sides is going to be at a huge advantage.
In team news, Reece Walsh's stint on the bench was a short run, the Broncos-bound youngster returning to start at fullback, with Chanel Harris-Tavita back at five-eighth and Daejarn Asi into the reserves. Jesse Arthars is out with a thigh injury, with Marcelo Montoya moving to the centres as a result and Edward Kosi coming in on the wing. Jack Murchie is out, with Josh Curran returning to the back row, while Freddy Lussick and Jackson Frei the two new faces on the bench. For the Storm, Jordan Grant comes onto the bench in place of Tom Eisenhuth in the only change to the 17 that went down to South Sydney. Brandon Smith remains suspended until Round 21, while Xavier Coates is expected to be back from an ankle injury in Round 22.
Last meeting: Round 7 2022 - Storm 70 Warriors 10
Who to watch: Despite suffering two losses in a row, Marcelo Montoya has found himself in near career best form for the Warriors on the wing, and will this week move into the centres as cover for the injured Jesse Arthars. It's a move I am not 100% sold on; one of the best aspects of Montoya's game recently has been just how hard he runs the ball back on kick returns and the metres he makes for his side coming out of yardage as a result. Last week, Montoya had 19 runs for 144 metres (54 post contact) while also breaking 4 tackles, while the week before that he ran 16 times for 177 metres (59 post contact), a line break and three tackle breaks, while also producing a hit on Clinton Gutherson that had the King seeing his lunch for the second time that day. Montoya's kick return game will obviously not be as prevalent in the centres, but he is coming up against a bits and pieces backline missing a few regular starters. Of the 20 tries the Storm have conceded during their losing streak, a whopping 17 have been scored by opposing outside backs. Look for Montoya to either add to that himself or assist in doing so.
Considering the results, it's to be expected that a few Storm players who are usually elite are in a bit of a rough patch, and that is more true for Harry Grant than anyone else, the Queensland hooker undoubtedly in the worst form of his career. In my opinion, it stems from the talented dummy half trying/having to do too much for his team when the opposition is on top. There were numerous occasions last Saturday against Souths where he was overplaying his hand in order to try and get something going in attack to the point where it was hard to watch. He finished with the mediocre statline of 8 runs for 61 metres and zero line-breaks, line-break assists, try-assists or tackle busts. The two main reasons for his ineffectiveness are that his forwards are not laying the platform they usually do, with Melbourne's starting pack combining for just 285 metres all game, and that Grant's defensive workload is simply too much for him to have the energy to be as electric as he usually is. Last week, he made 59 tackles while missing 8, meaning all up he attempted a whopping 67 tackles, which is 26 more than the next highest amount of attempts made by an individual. At his best, there's no doubt Grant can be the number 1 hooker and maybe even player in the competition, but in order for that to happen, Melbourne need to make things easier around him by sharing the defensive load and providing a platform for him to work off in attack.
The favourite: The Storm are 12.5 point favourites over the Warriors at the time of writing.
My tip: If I'm being honest, I haven't seen anything from the Storm in recent weeks that has warranted me tipping them. Obviously they are the more talented side on paper, but the fact that they are so out of form and are up against an improved Warriors side at home is enough for me to take the upset. Warriors by 4.
