Match Centre

Round 24: Rabbitohs v Cowboys preview

Cowboys Look To Tighten Top Two Stranglehold Against Souths Side Desperate To Stay In The Eight

What a glorious time it is to be a Rugby League fan. With such a short time to go before the finals, there are seven teams with nothing but pride to play for, eight teams giving it everything they can to either break into the eight, stay there or improve/solidify their positions within, and one historically dominant side who sealed the minor premiership a week ago.

As such, you get entertaining games between bottom teams throwing caution to the wind, blowouts between contending and bottom teams and instant classics between teams where winning the game is almost as significant as winning a final, the greatest by-product of the current situation. Saturday Night's matchup shapes as one that'll fall into the latter category. The Rabbitohs, despite being one of the dominant teams over the last month, are at risk of missing the finals altogether after last week's loss to Penrith. If they lose this game and the Raiders beat Manly, next round's opening of Allianz Stadium against the Roosters could be an elimination final of sorts. They will want to do everything they can to avoid that scenario and assure themselves a return to the finals with a win in this one.

The stakes are similarly high for the Cowboys. They are currently sitting in second place on the table, a position that if they can hold will give them two home finals. However, breathing down their necks are the Sharks, who have an easy run home against the Bulldogs and Knights. If the Cowboys lose even one of their next two games, there's a high chance that the Sharks leapfrog them, forcing the Townsville boys to hit the road in week one. So considering all this, motivation shouldn't be an issue. Both teams will also be extremely well rested, having played last week on Thursday and Friday respectively. The Rabbitohs came oh so close to cementing their top eight spot weeks in advance, but were heartbroken by a late Liam Martin try to lose to an understrength Penrith side by four points.

Saturday Night stands as a huge test for the Cowboys. They've been winning games lately, but not against quality opposition; the last time they beat a top eight team was 8 weeks ago against Brisbane, a game they still conceded 26 points in. Despite sitting in second place with 16 wins and 6 losses, the Cowboys are 4-4 against current top eight teams. A win away from home against a red hot Souths side would answer a lot of questions both internally and externally as North Queensland prepare for a push to the premiership.

In team news, Jaxson Paulo has been dropped after a dreadful performance last week, with Izaac Thompson replacing him on the wing for Souths. Daniel Suluka-Fifita is replaced at prop by Hame Sele, while Tom Burgess returns via the bench. Kodi Nikorima is in at utility for Taane Milne. For the Cowboys, a horror injury for Tom Dearden (ruptured testicle) has seen a major reshuffle of their spine. Scott Drinkwater moves into five-eighth, meaning Tabuai-Fidow goes to fullback. Reuben Cotter is named to start at prop, moving Coen Hess back to the bench, while Taunoa-Brown also comes into the 17.

Last meeting: Round 17 2021 - Rabbitohs 46 Cowboys 18

Who to watch: After a rough start to the year which culminated in getting hooked during a bludger of a first half against the Dragons, Lachlan Ilias has been much improved for the Rabbitohs and has been a contributor in a lot of their victories. Since that game, Ilias has averaged 280 kicking metres per game, compared to just 203 in the 15 games before it. He isn't fully developed yet, but the strides he has made recently have allowed Cody Walker to improve his form as well, resulting in the Rabbitohs looking more like the 2021 version than the early 2022 version. One thing the young halfback still needs to improve is his defence, having made 14 tackles and missed 5 in three of his last four games. The Cowboys will look to target this area, and you'd predict that Luciano Leilua and Jeremiah Nanai will be running at him all night.

It will be interesting to see how Scott Drinkwater goes while filling in at five-eighth for the Cowboys. The last time Drinkwater started a game in the halves was Round 25 last year in a 28 point loss to Manly. Since then, Drinkwater has established himself as one of the better fullbacks in the game and is a huge reason why the Cowboys have the third best attack in the competition in terms of points scored. In 18 games this year, Drinkwater has 10 tries, 14 try assists, 62 tackle breaks and 11 line-breaks. It's hard to see his role changing on the attacking side of the ball, but defending in the frontline is where the real test will come.

The favourite: Souths are 6.5 point favourites at the time of writing.

My tip: Give me maximum drama, both for this game and the ones with a greater meaning next week as a result. Cowboys by 1.