Pool Matches - Week 2: Papua New Guinea v Cook Islands preview
Kumuls, Kuki's to face off with winner likely advancing to the quarter finals
Papua New Guinea and the Cook Islands are the only two countries in the world that have Rugby League as their national sport. As such, you can imagine how much a quarter final berth would mean to the die-hard fans of both nations.
In Week 1, both sides played in close games where the result was up in the air for the entire 80 minutes. Papua New Guinea, as heavy underdogs, gave Tonga everything they had, rallying back from an 18-6 deficit at half time to tie things up at 18 with just over ten minutes left.
Unfortunately for the Kumuls, it wasn't to be, conceding a try in the 77th minute to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Despite the result, they will draw a lot of confidence from the fact they were able to remain competitive against a team like Tonga. It will stand them in good stead should they progress and face England in a knockout game later in the tournament.
The Cook Islands got more than they bargained for in their opening match against Wales, trailing for a fair chunk of the match before taking the lead with 17 minutes to go and defending for their life for the remainder. They got the win in the end, and that's all that matters, but they are going to have to find another four or five gears if they want to have a chance of beating PNG.
For the Kuki's to pull off the upset, they are going to need to dominate up front. You could make the argument that they have a slight edge over PNG in the forward pack and the interchange bench, with current and former NRL talent such as Davvy Moale, Makahesi Makatoa, Zane Tetevano gaining 153, 167 and 177 metres respectively, while veteran Tepai Moeroa tallied 106 while also bringing leadership intangibles to the table.
Those stats are in stark contrast to Papua New Guinea, who only had one forward gain more than 100 metres, albeit against much stronger opposition. The Kumuls have a much stronger and more talented backline than the Kuki's, so the forward pack will only need to hold its own to ensure the likes of Johnston, Olam and Macdonald have enough time and space to work their magic.
Last meeting: These two Rugby League mad countries have met on five previous occasions, with Papua New Guinea taking the chocolates every time.
Their most recent encounter was in a 2017 mid-season international, a game which was tied 12-all at half time before the Kumuls streaked away to win 32-22. Let's hope for a similarly close matchup on Wednesday morning (Australian time).
Who to watch: A potential X-factor for Papua New Guinea is crafty hooker Edwin Ipape. He came off the bench and scored a try for the Kumuls in their historic 2019 boilover win against the Wayne Bennett coached Great Britain side, and he provided several key runs that kept them in the game against Tonga. He finished up with 192 running metres, the most of anyone on his team, from 11 dummy half runs, breaking four tackles in the process, while also notching up 4 offloads and two line break assists. Defensively, he has work to do, making 34 tackles but missing 7. It will be interesting to see if he can back up his attacking effort and whether the Kuki's come in with a game plan to run at him.
For the Cook Islands, fullback Kayal Iro had a day out in their opening match against Wales. He doesn't have the star power of some other fullbacks in England for the World Cup, however you wouldn't know it based on his statline, which consisted of 266 running metres (111 post contact), 2 offloads, 9 tackle breaks and 2 try saves, the latter proving the defensive value he brings to the table. In a game which is set to be decided by how well the Cook Islands forwards play, the momentum generated from Iro's kick returns could go a long way to giving his forwards an opportunity to get on a roll.
The favourite: Papua New Guinea are 14.5 point favourites at the time of writing.
My tip: These two teams have both played in the equal-closest games of the World Cup so far, and I don't expect much to change in a match that will go a long way to deciding who advances in the most evenly matched group of the tournament. I'm going to go with the Kuki's to produce a historic upset. Cook Islands by 4.
