Round 7: Eels v Bulldogs preview
Eels Look to Climb Up Ladder Against Wounded Bulldogs
It has been a mixed start to season 2023 for both the Eels and the Bulldogs. Parramatta, fresh off a Grand Final appearance, lost three games by four points each to start the season and have since gone 2-1 in an unconvincing stretch of football, leaving them sitting in 14th place on the ladder and with some work to do to get back to the heights of 2022.
There have been enough positive signs so far for the Bulldogs to justify the new direction taken by the club in the post Trent Barrett era. They've won 3 games so far - more than half the amount they managed in Barrett's disastrous reign - and have, in small patches, looked like a very good football team.
Last week provided a reality check for where both teams are at. The Eels, despite their poor win/loss record, haven't been too far off the pace and, had individual 50-50 moments gone the other way could easily have been sitting at the top end of the table. Their game against the Tigers however shows that their defensive issues are very real and will in their current form stop them from consistently competing with the competitions' elite. They missed 39 tackles and allowed the Tigers to outgain them by 500 more metres. They were bailed out by some Mitch Moses individual brilliance but will need to find a much more sustainable formula for success going forward.
While it is true the Bulldogs have been crippled by injuries in recent weeks, some of their defensive efforts last week against South Sydney were not up to standard and an indicator that this team still has a fair way to go before they become a competition heavyweight. In their last two games they had defended well, conceding 16 and 14 against the Warriors and Cowboys respectively, but had that streak blown out of the water by an admittedly class Rabbitohs outfit. What will cause the most concern for coach Ciraldo is the timing of when the tries were conceded. The Bulldogs did have phases where they would turn the Rabbitohs away and were in a close game for 30 minutes. Souths would then score 3 tries in 7 minutes to effectively end the game before half time. Lightning would strike twice in the second half as the Dogs held firm for the first 20 minutes before conceding another 3 tries in the space of 5 minutes this time. This trend is indicative of an inexperienced team that drops it's head at the first sign of adversity. It is critical that the Bulldogs fix this if they want to have any chance against the Eels, who are as good as any team in the competition at scoring rapid fire long range tries with the offloading talent they possess up front.
Fortunately for the Bulldogs, they will regain vital experience with Kikau, Pangai and Faitala-Mariner coming back into the 17. Braidon Burns has been named as the replacement for the injured Josh Addo-Carr.
For the Eels, Junior Paulo is back and starting in the front row, pushing Wiremu Grieg to the bench and Jack Murchie to the reserves.
Last meeting: Round 23 2022 - Eels 42 Bulldogs 6
Who to watch: Parramatta halfback Mitchell Moses has been unfairly maligned for much of his career, but in recent years has done more than enough to show that he is one of the game's elite number 7's. The value Moses provides to the Eels was on full display last week against his old club the Tigers. His team was dominated across the park, registering fewer running metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, offloads and forced dropouts than the joint venture, all while unsurprisingly being dominated in possession 57%-43%. Despite this, Moses was able to use his first class kicking and passing game to come up with four try assists with the Eels very limited attacking opportunities, while also hitting a sideline conversion to all but seal the victory in the 76th minute. The primary key to victory for the Bulldogs will be to shut down the dynamic halfback, which is a lot easier said than done.
If the Eels didn't already consider losing hooker Reed Mahoney last season a mistake, his performances for his new club the Bulldogs so far in 2023 would certainly be hammering the point home. Mahoney has been a standout in every single game so far for the Dogs, consistently being one of the better players on the park for either side and bringing a much-needed sense of composure in attack to a young spine. He leads the league in 40/20s kicked with 3 in 6 games so far, and has recorded a try assist in each of his last two starts. He has also been a rock defensively for the Bulldogs, making 50 tackles against the Rabbitohs last week. What's been impressive is how quickly he has developed a trusted connection with back-rower Jacob Preston, the rookie being Mahoney's go to player when attacking close to the line, and with how bad the Eels edge defence has looked recently don't be surprised if this is an avenue he looks to go down again.
The favourite: The Eels are 7.5 point favourites in this one at the time of writing.
My tip: With how both sides defended last week, there could be 70 points scored in this one. I don't have much confidence tipping the winner, so I'll go with the home team and say Eels by 6.
