Round 8: Rabbitohs v Panthers preview
Another Thursday night, another blockbuster game of footy. This week, the South Sydney Rabbitohs host the Penrith Panthers for their second meeting of the season, this time at Accor Stadium.
The hosts are in some excellent attacking form, having scored 86 points over the past two weekends largely helped by Campbell Graham and Latrell Mitchell who have score a combined nine tries in those outings. Their attack is just beginning to click and as a result, are playing some of the most exciting footy in the competition.
However, this Thursday they face the NRL's best defence by a million miles. The Panthers have only conceded 79 points in their six games, the next best defence is the Rabbitohs, conceding 114 points in seven games.
Conceding on average 13 points per game will go a long way to realising Penrith's dream of a hat-trick of premierships and with the way they're going, it's a real possibility. There defence has been incredibly consistent regardless of who the opposition is. Their points conceded spread is 10 to 17 points which is a remarkable effort.
The only hindrance on their season after six weeks is the fact that they've only scored more than 20 points on two occasions. 53 against Canberra and 44 against Manly set the tone for what many expected to be a rampaging Penrith attack now that they had finally clicked. But they only managed to escape in Newcastle by a point after scoring just 16.
The Panthers scored 16 points in their last clash against the Rabbitohs and they'll be aiming to improve on that mark. A comprehensive attacking performance against a fellow premiership contender will cement their position as competition favourites and give Ivan Cleary and his team the belief that they can score points against the best teams in the competition.
Their opposition have been quite similar in terms of defensive consistency. The Rabbitohs points conceded spread is 12 to 20 points but it hasn't been enough against the better teams in the competition when their attack stutters. Souths scored 10, 18 and 10 against Penrith, Sydney and Melbourne with all three matches resulting in a loss.
The Rabbitohs weren't in the best of attacking form during those performances and the point scoring madness of the last two weekends should provide them with confidence heading into this important fixture.
Mitchell and Graham are going to be important factors in this match after demonstrating that the Rabbitohs right edge can be as potent as their left which hasn't fired to the same capacity as it did in 2022. The Panthers will be well aware of this and given their defensive output so far, they'll be confident in handling those two players.
To add another layer of difficulty for the Rabbitohs when it comes to executing their attack, Keoan Koloamatangi is out of the team with an injury and is replaced by Michael Chee-kam whilst Izaac Tu'itupou Thompson returns from injury, pushing Taane Milne to 18th man.
Penrith will be without Origin forward Liam Martin who continues to struggle with hamstring issues. Scott Sorensen moves into the starting side with Lindsay Smith included on the bench.
Last meeting: Round 2 2023 - Panthers 16 Rabbitohs 10
Who to watch: As mentioned, the home side have been exceptional in attack over the past two weekends with Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham being the main beneficiaries. Mitchell has scored all four of his tries in the past two games and has assisted a further three. That takes his try assist tally to six for the season and his having an exceptional season as a ball-runner averaging 142 metres per game and 4.9 tackle breaks. Graham has been on the receiving end of some of those assists and now have seven tries to his name in 2023. The 23-year-old has been solid as ever averaging 144 metres per game whilst being solid in defence.
For Penrith, it could be no other than Nathan Cleary who kicked his second game-winning field goal on Saturday against the Knights. The Australian halfback has five try assists so far and is proving to be a threat with the ball in hand, averaging 119 metres per game. The most influential aspect of Cleary's game is his ability to control and win games late in the contest. It could be needed on Thursday night and there's no man you'd want more in a game deciding moment than Cleary. Stephen Crichton scored ‘that' runaway intercept try to secure the Panthers 2021 premiership against the Rabbitohs. The centre enjoys playing Souths, scoring eight tries in 11 outings, including one in their round two clash. Given the weapons that Penrith possess, it isn't necessary for the 22-year-old to be the best player on the field every week, but he seems to get up for these matches against the Rabbitohs.
The favourite: Penrith are the favourite for Thursday night's clash and for good reason. They boast the competition's best defence, and they have an incredible record against Souths. Five wins in a row and 10 of their last 11 for the Panthers against the Rabbitohs, including eliminating them from the competition in three straight seasons.
My tip: It's hard to go past Penrith especially given their record against Souths. The boys from the west enjoy this battle and they'll be up for the clash. Penrith's defence is too good whilst the Rabbitohs stutter with the ball in hand against the best teams. Penrith by 4.
