Match Centre

Round 9: Eels v Knights preview

If history is anything to go by, the Parramatta Eels are going to find it hard to force their way into the top eight, even if it is early in the season.

Brad Arthur's side has just three wins from their first eight games to open its 2023 campaign. The last five times Parramatta has recorded three or fewer wins in an eight-game period to start the season, it has missed out on the finals. Of course, the most recent exception was the 2009 season, where the Eels charged up the ladder in the latter stages of the year and made it all the way to the grand final. But this year's Parramatta outfit looks a far cry from the one that went to the decider last season against Penrith.

A slow start was to blame for last week's 26-16 loss to Brisbane in Darwin, something which coach Arthur said is becoming a concerning trend for his team.

"The second half was alright," Arthur said after the game.

"We're fighting hard as a team but we're leaving too much to do in second halves. Our start wasn't good enough, they just rolled straight through the middle.

"They got into good field position to have easy kicks with no pressure. We've got to harden up at the start of games."

That may be harder now though with front rower and State of Origin hopeful Reagan Campbell-Gillard sidelined with a groin injury for at least eight weeks. It sees Wiremu Greig join the starting team in his place while Makahesi Makatoa comes onto the bench. Bailey Simonsson is also sidelined after suffering a head knock last week, with Sean Russell moving to the centres to replace him and Haze Dunster recalled.

As for the Knights, for a second-straight week they showed plenty of grit and steel but didn't go home with the two points after a tight loss to North Queensland. Newcastle got through plenty of work in defence, something it has had to do most of the season, having conceded the most run metres per game and made the most errors inside their own half. That in turn has resulted in the Knights also making the equal second-most tackles inside their own 20 but resilient defence like that they showed against the Panthers a fortnight ago will continue to keep them in games. 

If there was one shining light to come out of that game though it was the successful return of five-eighth Kalyn Ponga from a lengthy concussion lay-off. Ponga immediately added an extra element to Newcastle's attack and did not look afraid to take the line on, with 10 runs for 88 metres. The 25-year-old was eased in off the bench but has been named to start on Friday in an otherwise unchanged line-up for the Knights.

Newcastle will be looking to reverse a string of losses against Parramatta, having gone down in five-straight games against the Eels. In fact, the Eels have held the Knights to four points or fewer in three of their past four games, including a 39-2 thumping in their last meeting in 2022.

Last meeting: Round 7 2022 - Knights 2 Eels 39

Who to watch: All eyes will be on Parramatta hooker Josh Hodgson as he looks to step up his involvement after a disappointing opening to 2023. Losing Reed Mahoney was always going to be a setback for the Eels, but they could do little about it given how much the Bulldogs had offered him. What Parramatta did have more control over though was who it brought in to replace him and Hodgson's experience and crafty ball-playing made him an intriguing option. Unfortunately for Hodgson, at 33 years old and coming off a serious knee injury, he also came to Parramatta with plenty of red flags. Currently, Hodgson is being found out in defence and over-complicating what should be a simple power game up front for Parramatta. He is also averaging the fewest dummy-half runs in the league this season at just 1.1 compared to 4.0 for now Bulldog Mahoney. If Hodgson isn't going to run the football, his service from dummy-half needs to be top-notch to make up for it.

Speaking of hookers not offering a whole lot in attack, the Knights desperately need spark from dummy-half and Phoenix Crossland isn't exactly delivering it. With Jayden Brailey sidelined for the season, the versatile Crossland has been given the starting gig and, to be fair, is only just a few weeks into the role. Crossland is a
strong defender and gets through plenty of work but he just isn't taking the space in front of him. While obviously quickly shovelling it on to a front rower or winger like Greg Marzhew makes sense, there have been times in the past fortnight that Crossland has had space to run out of dummy-half but just opted for the pass. Potentially that is a result of adjusting to the new role, bigger minutes and workload which sees him expend energy that could otherwise be used to attack more. Plus, with Ponga now back, it's not as if Newcastle necessarily needs Crossland's creative output. It's more just picking up those easy metres and even catching out offside defenders that Newcastle's new first-choice hooker could improve at.

The favourite: The Eels are well-backed to respond from last week's defeat.

My tip: The Knights would be the pick if this was at Newcastle. You just know what you're going to get from them this year and can trust the Knights to at least put in the effort. Away from home though, you have to give the slight edge to the Eels. It'll be close though. Eels by 8.