Round 10: Warriors v Panthers preview
Magic Round on Saturday kicks off with this very intriguing and vitally important top 8 clash between the defending Premiers Penrith and the hugely improved Warriors. On paper it doesn't appear to be that close of a contest given the Panthers are comfortably the best defensive team in the competition while the Warriors are ranked a solid 7th. Interestingly though, the Warriors attack is ranked 12th and the Panthers is ranked 8th.
The Warriors come into this game with their red hot form of the opening 5 rounds significantly cooled. After wins over the Knights, Cowboys, Bulldogs and Sharks and a solitary loss by 8 points to the Roosters, the Warriors were riding high in third place on the ladder. But then a 10 point loss to the Knights, an 8 point win over the underperforming Cowboys and back-to-back losses against the Storm and the Roosters has seen them slide down to 8th on the ladder.
The Warriors have a very high completion rate, equal best with the Cowboys at 81%. They are also very strong at breaking tackles and breaking through the line, but these great areas are seemingly nullified due to their inability, on unwillingness to offload the ball. The Warriors have very little second phase play in their game compared to the rest of the competition and is an area that they need to be at their best if they are to capitalise on the limited opportunities that the Panthers defence will provide.
The Panthers started the season steadily, with a 6 point victory over Souths between a pair of 1 point losses to the Broncos and Eels. They then looked like the kicked into gear as they delivered a thumping 53-12 win over Canberra and a 44-12 win over Manly in successive weeks, before struggling against the lowly Knights, winning by 1 point. They had a 2 point loss to the very strong Souths side before last weekends shock 12-8 loss to the last placed and winless Wests Tigers.
Last weeks loss highlighted a few issues for the Panthers - a lack of intelligence in their kicking game, an over-reliance on Nathan Cleary at halfback, the lack of creativity out of dummy half and a hint of panic in attack. Statistically they are very similar to the Warriors, playing low risk football for the most part but it's not providing consistency in results. Despite all that, they are still the best defensive team in the comp and still in the top 8.
Last meeting: Round 24 2022 - Panthers 46 Warriors 12
Who to watch: Tohu Harris is always a key player for opposition sides to target. His combination of ball running, line engagement, ability to draw in the second defender while running on the edge of the ruck and his very strong defence, means he is always a vital link between the Warriors attack in the ability being able to link and create space with their outside backs. He returns to the side this weekend after missing last weekend.
Jarome Luai had a very quiet game last weekend and was barely used in attack, especially his kicking game and ball running game. Don't be surprised if the ball finds its way into his hands more often at the end of the set this weekend than it did in the Panthers loss to the Tigers last weekend. And that will be a good thing as it will mean the Panthers attack will be less one dimensional which will help to make Nathan Cleary more effective in attack.
Favourite: Despite their shaky form and shock loss last weekend, Penrith will still be the favourites to win this game.
My tip: Penrith to get the win here by 12 points.
