Round 11: Bulldogs v Warriors preview
Both these sides come into this match with last start losses, however neither side has been disgraced in their last 3 games each, ensuring that this will be a relatively closely fought contest between two sides desperate for a win.
The Bulldogs started the season solidly enough, winning 3 of their opening 5 games to have them on the cusp of the top 8, but then their defence fell apart as they conceded 113 points in their next 3 games, 50 of those points against Souths. They scored a narrow 18-16 win over the lowly Dragons in Round 9 before going down to the Raiders last weekend by 4 points in a high scoring affair.
The Bulldogs struggles in attack all year though have been when they hit the defensive line. Only the last placed Wests Tigers have fewer line breaks (by just 1), they are also third last for post contact metres (ahead of the Dragons and Titans) and third last for tackle breaks (ahead of Canberra and Manly). It doesn't read much better defensively with the Bulldogs being equal last for completion rates, while also being the third worst side for handling errors, the worst side for conceding penalties and third worst for missed tackles. All in all, this Dogs side has a lot of work to do if they are to be competitive for the rest of the season, because at the moment, their performance in the middle of the field is simply not good enough.
To combat this, the Dogs have made no changes to their middle, with Josh Addo-Carr returning on the wing and edge forward Harrison Edwards returning to the bench.
The Warriors, like the Dogs, started the season strongly, winning 5 of their opening 7 games to be placed as high as 4th on the ladder, but 3 straight losses to the last 3 Premiership winning teams (Melbourne, Sydney and Penrith) has seen them drift outside the top 8 and down to 11th place. The losses though were not heavy ones - they lost by 8 to the Storm, 14 to the Roosters and 12 to the Panthers, and for the last 2 of those games, kept their opponents under 20.
The Warriors have the highest completion rate in the NRL and one of the lowest Possession rates, so they are making the most of their sets when they get them. As for breaking the line, post contact metres and overall metres gained, the Warriors are in the top 8 in all areas, so its fair to say, they will be looking to play this game at the line and in the middle of the park. What would really help them dominate through the middle is quick metres from dummy half runs, but the Warriors are one of the 3 worst sides in this aspect.
The Warriors will be without winger Edward Kosi and back rower Jackson Ford, who have been replaced by Rocco Berry (who will move to centre and push Marcelo Montoya out to the wing) and Ronald Volkman. Volkman will push Dylan Walker out of the five-eighth role and onto the bench, while Freddy Lussick and Wayde Egan will swap roles with Egan starting at hooker this week and Lussick on the bench. Josh Curran will move into the back row.
Last meeting: Round 4 2023 - Warriors 16 Bulldogs 14
Who to watch: Tohu Harris has been absolute brick wall in the middle of the field this year, averaging an immense 40 tackles per game. He will be ensuring the Warriors middle is locked down and not leaking any metres or points. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has also been making huge metres at the back and ensuring the Warriors sets are getting off to a good start.
Jacob Kiraz has been a real revelation for the Bulldogs on the wing, breaking the line and tackles at will and with Josh Addo-Carr returning, look for the Bulldogs to get both men involved as much as possible, even early in sets with ruck runs, using their speed and strength to get the Warriors defence back-peddaling.
Favourite: The Warriors will start as favourites here, narrowly though.
My tip: The Warriors to bounce back in a tough encounter. Warriors by 8.
