Round 11: Panthers v Roosters preview
What potentially shaped as a grand final preview instead sees two premiership contenders with big question marks face off at BlueBet Stadium to cap off Friday night's NRL action in Round 11.
The Panthers may be the top defensive team in the competition but their attack has looked clunky at best in recent weeks, with the back-to-back defending premiers scrapping home for an 18-6 win over the Warriors at Magic Round. That result in itself was a snapshot of their season as a whole so far. Penrith has got by, winning enough games to stay in touch with the top four and not giving its critics enough of a reason to sound alarm bells just yet. But at the same time, the Panthers are having to work a lot harder for what used to be relatively straight-forward wins during recent years of dominance at the foot of the mountains.
Penrith has no trouble getting into dominant field position, like it did in the opening stages of the second half against the Warriors last week. Converting it into points though is proving a challenge. A lot of that comes back to Penrith's left edge, which has struggled for fluency all year following the departure of Viliame Kikau, which has in turn exposed the need for Jarome Luai to improve his ball-playing. The Panthers have also lacked potency and variety in attack without hooker Apisai Koroisau along with the veteran hooker's speed and decisiveness in knowing which side of the field to explore. Of course, all of this is quite grim reading for a team that sits third on the competition ladder and is coming off a win. But a statement victory over the Roosters this week at home could be exactly what the Panthers need to prove they still have a ruthless side to their football.
Penrith is unchanged this week with Liam Martin (hamstring) named on an extended bench as he hunts a return ahead of the upcoming Origin series.
Of course, it's not just the Panthers who are struggling to get their attack clicking, with the Roosters only managing to cross the try line in the final minute of last week's 20-6 loss to North Queensland. While the Joey Manu and Luke Keary halves combination had helped the Roosters to a few wins on the trot, they weren't always convincing victories and last Sunday's heavy defeat was a reality check of sorts in that regard. The Tricolours have been wildly inconsistent this year, taking care of South Sydney and Parramatta before crumbling in back-to-back defeats to Melbourne and Cronulla. The attack has been the main problem, with frustration at a lack of points then leading to ill-discipline and a poor attitude in defence. For all their firepower on paper, the Roosters have only scored fewer points than the Wests Tigers this season - a sobering reminder of just how far Trent Robinson's side have to go.
There is just one change to the Roosters team this week, with Egan Butcher (concussion) unavailable and replaced by Angus Crichton in the starting side while Fletcher Baker joins the bench.
The Roosters will be looking for their first win against the Panthers since 2019 this week, having lost their last six games against Penrith. In fact, their record at Penrith is even worse, having not won a game at the foot of the mountains since Round 3 in 2017.
Last meeting: Round 16 2022 - Panthers 26 Roosters 18
Who to watch: Provided there are no late switches, the Panthers could be in serious trouble trying to defend Joseph Suaalii on Friday night. The young centre has not been in the best touch as of late but should thrive against Penrith's fill-in option on the left edge, Tyrone Peachey. The versatile Peachey was improved in last week's game against the Warriors but has been a defensive liability at times given his lack of speed off the mark. Suaalii is not just quick though, he also has a powerful fend and so it will be interesting to see how Peachey fares when he tries to defend him. If Suaalii shows him up, the spotlight will be placed on Penrith coach Ivan Cleary given the conservative decision to select Peachey ahead of a talented youngster like Tom Jenkins was baffling in the first place.
Obviously all the talk this week will be about the Roosters halves but when it comes to key players in Friday night's game, Victor Radley may not be mentioned enough. Tohu Harris and a few of the other Warriors forwards really exposed Penrith's middle defence last week with clever short ball-playing close to the line. If there is someone in the Roosters line-up capable of doing similar it is Radley. Of course, part of the Roosters' attacking issues this year has been the fact they have had too many cooks in the kitchen, if you will. And a ball-playing lock like Radley can at times complicate things if the attack needs to be simplified. But when the Roosters aren't in attacking shape and getting ready for set plays, Radley's passing game could be key to opening the Panthers up. That is, provided he is not already in the sin bin.
Favourite: The Panthers are well-backed to make it two on the trot.
My tip: On the back of last week's humiliation against North Queensland, look for the Roosters to head to the foot of the mountains and make a much-needed statement against a Panthers team that has its own question marks this season. Roosters by 4.
