Round 12: Broncos v Panthers preview
When the Broncos upset the Panthers back in round one, it was viewed through the lens of being somewhat of an early wake-up call for the defending premiers.
In reality, considering Brisbane's form since that point, it ended up saying a whole lot more about just how good the Broncos would be this season than speaking to any potential demise at Penrith.
Although heading into Thursday night's clash between two early competition frontrunners, the absence of Adam Reynolds means we may not get a true indication for how these two sides stack up against each other.
Reynolds suffered a head knock in last week's loss to Melbourne and has subsequently been ruled out this week, with former Tigers halfback Tyson Gamble to take his spot in the starting side.
It is a setback for the Broncos, who have heavily relied on Reynolds for his long-range kicking game and experience in general.
Although Brisbane can take plenty of confidence from its performance without Reynolds against the Storm, putting in a resilient defensive effort to only go down 24-16 in the end.
Now the Broncos return home with an opportunity to make their biggest statement yet but it won't come easy against a Panthers side that put in their most complete performance of the year last week.
Coming off an unconvincing victory against the Warriors the round prior, Penrith returned to its destructive best in a 48-4 routing of the Roosters at BlueBet Stadium.
The maligned Jarome Luai was particularly impressive, recording three try assists and three linebreak assists to go with a try as he answered his critics in emphatic style.
Of course, the challenge now for Luai - and the Panthers as a whole - will be to back it up on Thursday night.
Penrith has made a habit of losing close games this season, falling to Brisbane and Parramatta by one point while going down to South Sydney and the Tigers by two and four points respectively.
Unless the Broncos are uncharacteristically off their game on Thursday, the Panthers will be in for another tightly-contested game.
Penrith is unchanged for its trip to Suncorp Stadium, with former Bronco Zac Hosking good to go after passing a head injury assessment despite not returning to the field last week against the Roosters.
Last meeting: Round 1 2023 - Panthers 12 Broncos 13
Who to watch: Losing Reynolds is obviously a blow for Brisbane but it means it will only be more important that the Broncos find ways to dominate field position without his kicking game. Tacklebusting runs from barnstorming front rower Payne Haas will be one way to do just that. Haas is averaging the most run metres (171), runs of eight-plus metres (13) and tackle busts (four) of any forward in the competition. The Broncos would be well-served running Haas at Panthers hooker Mitch Kenny, who has to get through plenty of work and could tire quickly, forcing Ivan Cleary to bring on Soni Luke earlier than anticipated.
As for Penrith, look for ex-Brisbane second rower Zac Hosking to show his former side what they are missing out on. Hosking has made an immediate impact for Penrith as an absolute workhorse in defence, averaging 35 tackles (second-most in the NRL among second rowers) and a tackle efficiency of 94 per cent which, again, ranks him second-best at his position in the league. In attack though Hosking has really helped the Panthers fill the hole left behind by Viliame Kikau, running incisive lines. It may have been Scott Sorensen stealing the show last week but look for the 26-year-old Hosking to get over the line at least once on Thursday.
The favourite: Reynolds' absence tips this one in favour of Penrith.
My tip: The Broncos will definitely keep this one close for the first 60 minutes or so but look for the class of Nathan Cleary to prove the difference in the end. Panthers by 14.
