Round 15: Sea Eagles v Dolphins preview
The consistently inconsistent Dolphins come into this game with their form of the last 9 games showing no back-to-back wins or losses (or byes even).
Last week they were poor as they went down against a strong Warriors performance, 30-8. So with their recent form suggesting a win here, it's worth noting that Queensland based clubs have been dominating at 4 Pines Park in recent times too. From 2015-2023, they have won 8 of their 10 games at Manly's supposed fortress.
Manly have been producing the much more traditional form of inconsistency, looking solid in their opening 4 games, then got belted by an out of form Panthers outfit, before dominating the Storm, struggling to beat the winless Wests Tigers, then losing 3 straight games, before belting the Raiders in Canberra and then the following week, playing poorly as they lost to a struggling Knights side 28-18.
Manly had their second bye last week, so they will be fresh. Their last bye was in Round 2 and they won at home the week after against the Eels, which is about all the good form they have to hang their hat on coming into this vital clash.
The form of star Manly fullback Tom Trbojevic has been unusually erratic to say the least. He's had 20 handling errors in 10 games, making him one of the worst in the NRL in this category. The rest of his stats are marginally down on his usual performances, but not by any alarming amount. What is noticeable though is that he doesn't look to be as fast or as a powerful with his running game. Perhaps he's playing safer to prevent injuries, or maybe, he's carrying a niggling injury. A few weeks ago, he almost immediately gave up on chasing back rower Briton Nikora as he made a break, which was most unusual.
Manly are struggling to break through opposition defensive lines, ranking last for tackle breaks and kick return metres, second last for line breaks and 5th last for post contact metres. This ineffectiveness to bend the line is a sign that the running game of Manly is not utilizing enough variance or power. This leads automatically to their playmakers, typically Daly Cherry-Evans, to try and engineer scoring opportunities from chance plays, mostly kicks.
The Dolphins have been struggling in defence, ranking as one of the 5 worst sides currently for missed tackles. But they are the best in the NRL when it comes to ball security and 2nd best for Completion rates. This means they will not provide Manly with too many free opportunities to get into good field position, Manly will have to earn it, something they've been struggling to do this year, especially in recent weeks.
Who to watch: Jamayne Isaako is still worrying teams with his running game, as he is one of the best in the game currently for post contact metres, tackle breaks, line breaks, kick return metres and scoring tries. The Dolphins will be targeting him in their attacking plays and Manly would be wise to kick well away from him all game.
Jeremy Marshall-King will return this weekend where his energy out of dummy half has been a real asset to the Dolphins go-forward all season. He's one of the best in the NRL for dummy half runs and with Manly's forwards working so hard in attack to bend the line, expect him to exploit them when they get tired later in each half.
Daly Cherry-Evans is the biggest star in this game and has an amazing ability to control everything in attack while rarely ever getting shut down. No side can afford to give him too much space.
Haumole Olakau'atu is the big x-factor in the Manly pack and has been solid all season. Don't be surprised if you find he has a license to run wider of the ruck than usual in this match, to try and get himself lined up against young Dolphins half Isaiya Katoa, who has been a target in the Dolphins defensive line, contributing to him having one of the highest missed tackle stats in the game.
Favourite: Manly are starting as favourites, largely due to them being on home soil.
