Round 15: Roosters v Panthers preview
Things change quickly in rugby league. Take this Saturday's game between the Roosters and Panthers as proof.
It was just four weeks ago that these two sides met, with Penrith running away 48-4 winners on that occasion to send an ominous warning to the rest of the league while exposing serious issues at what was supposed to be a title threat. Instead, the Roosters looked more like a team fighting to avoid the wooden spoon, a far cry from the lofty hopes for the Trent Robinson-led outfit in the past few years.
Fast-forward to Saturday night and there are still question marks over the Tricolours, who were hardly convincing as they scraped home 25-24 against the Bulldogs courtesy of a Luke Keary field goal.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have not dropped a game since that 48-4 victory to cement their spot at the top of the ladder. In that sense, some things are still the same. But all it took was one injury - in this case to halfback Nathan Cleary - to threaten to bring Penrith back to the pack and present the Roosters with a golden opportunity to exact revenge. Jack Cogger had already been named on the interchange bench for his club debut in Penrith's 26-18 win over the Dragons last week but was quickly thrust into the action after Cleary pulled up sore in defence.
It would later be confirmed that the NSW Blues halfback suffered a grade two hamstring tear, meaning Cogger will be steering the ship for the next six weeks. It is not a huge deal for the Panthers, who have a bye in between now and Cleary's return while they were already set to be without their star halfback for next week's trip to North Queensland.
More than anything though, even if they are not favourites to win Saturday's game, the injury to Cleary gifts the Roosters a chance to really make a statement against a competition heavyweight. Even without Cleary, the Panthers are easily the best defensive team in the league and will be tough to crack.
This should be a fairly even contest that will give Penrith fans a good idea of just how the team may handle the Origin period without its captain.
In team news, Cogger joins the starting team as expected to replace Cleary with Jaeman Salmon taking his spot on the bench.
Interestingly, Soni Luke remains out of the side and has instead been named in the reserves.
While Luke has played big minutes at times during the season in NSW Cup to increase his match fitness, Penrith could do with his ball-playing and spark in attack to offset Cleary's absence.
Elsewhere, the Roosters are without Joseph Suaalii (suspended) with Corey Allan moving to the centres while Daniel Tupou is back from a hamstring injury on the wing.
Last meeting: Round 11 2023 - Panthers 48 Roosters 4
Who to watch: James Tedesco may have been the standout in last week's close win over the Bulldogs, but another one of the Roosters' stars was surprisingly quiet. Joey Manu has often excelled at the five-eighth position, benefiting from the increased freedom to roam while using his combination of strength and finesse to challenge the opposition defence. But Manu didn't have much of an impact against the Bulldogs. Look for the five-eighth to get heavily involved early, with his game-breaking ability key against a resolute Penrith defence.
With Cleary sidelined, more responsibility is going to fall on halves partner Jarome Luai's shoulders. The Panthers have plenty of experience playing without Cleary now given his involvement with the Blues in State of Origin, while the Penrith halfback also missed time last year with a shoulder injury. But Luai was partnering Sean O'Sullivan for much of last season when Cleary was unavailable. Cogger showed glimpses of his potential last week, finding winger Brian To'o with a clever kick just before halftime and generally having a solid first outing in Panthers colours. The former Bulldogs playmaker will need time though to adjust to playing in first grade again, meaning Luai will need to be more vocal in organizing the attack. That will be particularly important given Apisai Koroisau is no longer at the club, leaving an even bigger void in the spine.
Favourite: No Cleary, but the bookmakers are still backing Penrith to get the job done.
My tip: If the Panthers are going to get it done without Cleary it will be on the back of their competition-best defence. However, if the Roosters aim up in defence and play with physicality up front, they may just have enough points in them to cause an upset. The Roosters have more to prove at this point and that could be enough to see them put in the better overall effort. More than anything, they need to win this to re-establish themselves as genuine finals threats. Roosters by 8.
