Round 16: Knights v Roosters preview
Rotten Roosters Look to Get Back on Track Against Brave Knights
There have been very few teams in Rugby League that have promised as much and delivered as little as the 2023 Sydney Roosters. Coming off a strong finish in 2022, many tipped that the side would be a top 4 contender with the amount of representative talent in the ranks, with the ability to compete for the premiership determined by how much the promising young talent coming through kicked on.
It seems unfathomable, then, that after 15 rounds of football, the Roosters sit dead last in points per game, and comfortably at that, more than 1 full point per game behind the Bulldogs who sit in 16th for the same metric. For weeks, there has been lingering goodwill left over from the pre-season, with many thinking the Roosters are close to getting it together, however that finally seems to be fading as the Knights start deserved favourites in the matchup this week.
Newcastle themselves have been inconsistent but on the whole impressive so far in 2023. Despite a 5-7-1 record, they have been a chance of winning late in every game bar two that they've played this season, and Adam O'Brien deserves credit for the job he's been able to do so far. Last week, they appeared to be on their way to an unlikely upset against the ladder leading Broncos away from home, leading by 8 points with less than 15 minutes to go, however ultimately the class of Brisbane was too much for Newcastle as they romped home to win by 4.
The challenge now for the Knights is to back up from a game that would've been mentally draining, especially after not getting the reward of the two competition points. Over the last six weeks or so they have no doubt been a better side than the Roosters, and there's no reason they can't win this game in front of their home crowd, but they have struggled backing up their good performances so far this year.
In team news, Greg Marzhew is out for disciplinary reasons, replaced on the wing for the Knights by Enari Tuala. Lachlan Fitzgibbon is back and replaces NSW Blue Tyson Frizell in the back row in the only other change for Newcastle.
For the Roosters, James Tedesco is out on origin duty, meaning Joey Manu will play his first game in a while in a position he feels comfortable in at fullback. Billy Smith is back in at centre, moving Drew Hutchison to the bench, while Sandon Smith gets his first start in the top grade at halfback. Nat Butcher starts at prop for Queensland Maroon Lindsay Collins, while Sitili Tupouniua moves to the back row and Naufahu Whyte gets a long overdue start at lock. Matt Lodge has been dropped from the bench for Terrell May in other welcome news.
Last meeting: Round 19 2022 - Knights 12 Roosters 42
Who to watch: Queensland were eventually vindicated in his non-selection, however long-time origin centre Dane Gagai has done himself no harm with his performances since being left out of the Maroons origin squad. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow plays a different position week to week so it's hard to compare statistics, but when looking at Gagai's numbers compared to Valentine Holmes, Gagai has more try assists and tackle breaks in less games, a much higher tackle efficiency rate and only average 7 less running metres per game. The game isn't played on paper and obviously stats aren't everything, but it's hard to say Gagai's form so far this season warranted the selection snubbing. He was again great in last week's narrow loss to the Broncos, running for 148 metres and notching up 3-line break assists, 2 try assists, 6 tackle breaks and two offloads. Matched up against another former Queensland legend in Corey Allan, Gagai will be looking forward to the opportunity to put on another impactful performance.
For the Roosters, it is a wonder why it has taken Trent Robinson so long to include young lock Naufahu Whyte in the team. He has been putting up consistently great numbers in the New South Wales cup, averaging a whopping 218 metres per game while also notching up 33 tackle breaks in the 10 matches he's played so far. He also has an extraordinary motor and consistently playing big minutes, reaching 80 in six of those 10 games. In the limited opportunity he's had in first grade so far this season he has also impressed, averaging just under 2.5 run metres per minute, roughly on par with what he's been doing in reserve grade, meaning there's no reason to suggest the strong form won't carry over into the top grade. It will be interesting to see how Trent Robinson plans to use him this week after naming him in the starting lock role; in his only other start against the Warriors earlier in the year he played 40 minutes and ended up with 2 tackle breaks, 109 running metres and 18 tackles for only 1 miss. It will be a tough job on Saturday against a Knights pack spearheaded by Daniel Saifiti with a point to prove after missing origin selection, and it's about time we find out if Whyte is up to the task.
Favourite: The Knights are 4.5 point favourites in this one at the time of writing.
My tip: The changes to the Roosters team list are indeed promising, but I'm going to need to see it from them this season before I can believe it. Knights by 10.
