Round 17: Roosters v Raiders preview
The Roosters are in poor form right now, despite their win last week and the fact they've won 2 of their last 3 games.
Looking deeper into that recent success, in Round 14 they beat a 14th placed Bulldogs by just 1 point, 25-24, the week after losing to the second last Dragons 24-22. They were then beaten by a Nathan Cleary depleted Panthers side 30-6. Last weekend they overcame that loss with an 18-16 victory of the 13th placed Newcastle Knights. Even looking through the whole season, there has been very little for the Roosters to crow about.
The Roosters have the worst attack in the NRL and are one of just 3 sides averaging less than 3 tries per game (Wests Tigers and Bulldogs 2.9, Roosters 2.7) and there's a bunch of reasons behind this. They have the worst possession percentage at 47.4%, the next worst is at 48.7% while the Panthers are the best at 53.1%), they are second last for completions at 74.5% with the Sharks at 74.4% performing worse.
The Roosters are one of the worst 4 sides in the areas of line engagement, line breaks, post contact metres, decoy runs, metres gained and errors. They are playing for fast play the balls, but are not shifting the opposition defensive line around enough, nor are their ruck runs getting the opposition defensive line on the back foot. This means they are constantly faced with an intact defensive line which is forcing them to take low percentage plays to try and score points, such as kicks.
Their inability to build pressure and repeat sets means they are also constantly defending, which only serves to further dampen any attacking spark they might have.
The Raiders come into this match having won 7 of their last 9 games, but are 2 wins from their last 4 games, which suggests their form is still solid, but cooling somewhat. They have been playing very forward-heavy attacks, which has produced the seemingly contradictory matter of having strong post contact metres while also being one of the poorest performing sides when it comes to tackle breaks and line breaks.
The Raiders are also one of the weaker sides when it comes to kick return metres. They do create plenty of second phase play and that will likely be where they build their momentum from and could well be the point of difference between the two outfits.
Last meeting: Round 13 2022 - Raiders 22 Roosters 16
Who to watch: Corey Horsburgh has been varying his line running more this year, running wider at times and getting plenty of post contact metres and play-the-balls, while also doing some of the heavy lifting in the middle as well. He's been much better at choosing which lines to run and his offloads are more frequent and better delivered, which has in turn seen him playing the best football of his career, giving the Raiders options on the edge of the ruck on both sides, with Elliott Whitehead on the other side.
Joseph Tapine has been powerful in his carries all season thus far, so much so, that he is ranking third in the NRL for post contact metres, averaging 67 per game. Josh Papali'i has also been immense through the middle for the whole season.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has been huge all season for the Roosters, for the most part being the Roosters best forward and on many occasions, their best player. He loves a big challenge up front and against the Raiders pack, he will get precisely that.
Victor Radley has all the skills and abilities to be an absolute game winner, but too often this year he has been way below par for his capabilities. He needs to knuckle down, play tough but within the rules, play through the line and he could well play a major role in helping the Roosters turn this ship around.
Favourite: The Roosters will come into this game as the favourite, because….reasons?
My tip: Raiders to win a tough contest in the middle, 24-14.
