Round 18: Sharks v Dragons preview
The fourth placed Sharks come into this game having largely nullified their 54-10 hiding from the Storm in Round 15, with a 48-10 win over the Bulldogs followed by the bye. Their opponents are the last placed Dragons side in disarray, who have sacked their coach, appointed a controversial replacement in Shane Flanagan which seemingly has driven their star player and halfback Ben Hunt to immediately seek departure from the club.
The Sharks have oft been criticized in recent times for essentially being flat-truck bullies, scoring consistently strong victories against weak sides and struggling to win games against top 8 sides. And if that rings true, then the Sharks will win this match, as they have done the last 6 times they've come up against the Dragons.
The Sharks have a widely varied attack but too often this year when their attack doesn't click, they try and force it with lower percentage plays and thus, they have the worst completion rate in the NRL. They are one of the elite sides in the comp when it comes to playing at the line. Only the Panthers are better at engaging the line, while the Sharks comfortably lead the league in Line Breaks (averaging 6.4 per game, the next best, Parramatta and Souths, average 5.8), while also being a top 6 side for post contact metres, tackle breaks and run metres gained.
It's not just devastating ball running in the middle and on the edge of the ruck that the Sharks excel at. Winger Ronaldo Mulitalo ranks third in the NRL for line breaks per game, while centre Siosifa Talakai ranks fifth for post contact metres. Halfback Nicho Hynes and Talakai are also among the best in the game for try and line break assists. The Sharks have so many different shapes, lines and second phase play options that they can throw at a side, that they will more often than not win against sides who do not turn up defensively. The Sharks rank as the second best attacking side in the NRL.
Speaking of poor defence, the Dragons are one of the three worst defensive sides in the NRL right now, equal second last with the Bulldogs and ahead of the last placed Dolphins. As far as team stats go, the Dragons are middle of the road in most aspects of play, nothing is noticeably strong or poor. Everything is just…meh. The Dragons defence has tended to give up this year when they realise the game is out of their reach, having conceded 30+ points in 5 games, 4 of those saw them concede 40+ points.
Their attack has largely been pedestrian, failing to reach 20 points in 9 of their 15 games this year. When they have got to 20, they've won 4 of 6 games. They need to be strong defensively in the middle for 80 minutes, put pressure on Hynes and produce more than a few different plays in attack. Second phase play could well be their best way to break up the Sharks defensive structure and give the Dragons playmakers the best chance to create scoring opportunities here.
Last meeting: Round 4 2023 - Dragons 8 Sharks 40
Who to watch: Nicho Hynes is an obvious player to watch here. He is, at times, unconventional for a halfback in the modern game, popping up on both sides, sometimes playing a lot wider than most halves. His unique style is beautifully complimented by the Sharks squad, with strong ball runners in the backs like Mulitalo, Talakai and Katoa, ably supported by creative spine members Will Kennedy at fullback and Blayke Brailey at hooker.
William Kennedy has also been stellar this year, safe when fielding kicks, great with kick returns, his support play and ball playing skills continue to improve every year, even though they've always been good.
Ben Hunt is always the heart of the Dragons attack, but with all the drama going on around him at the moment and desperately seeking to leave the club, it's difficult to know exactly how he will perform. If he's off his game, the Dragons will struggle to get on the board.
Mikaele Ravalawa is one of the most powerful ball runners in the game and is also a constantly good tryscorer, making him a target for the Dragons attack. If he can find a way to inject himself into the Dragons attack, it will help to get the Sharks defence on the back foot.
Favourite: The Sharks are strong favourites, given they are very close to full strength and aren't the Dragons.
My tip: Sharks should do this easily. Sharks to win 28-8.
