Round 18: Raiders v Titans preview
Raiders, Titans Look to Prime Themselves For Run Home to Finals
As the NRL season comes out the other side of the origin period, things are as close as ever, with just four competition points separating 1st and 9th place heading into round 18.
The tightness means that no team is guaranteed a spot in the finals, and the Raiders and Titans are two teams that need to keep winning games or risk an early mad Monday. Canberra have a mixed run home and sit in fifth place on a ladder excluding bye points, meaning they can be a tad more comfortable than their opponents heading into this one.
The Titans have the run home from hell. They're already a game outside of the top eight and face in form sides the Eels, Cowboys, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers and Storm over the next eight weeks. If they are to make an improbable surge into the finals, they will have well and truly earnt it, and last week's gutsy win over local rivals the Broncos is a great potential starting point.
Both sides are in some modest form coming into this one. The Raiders have won three out of their last four but have looked anything but convincing, leaping out to big leads against the Rabbitohs, Tigers and Roosters before collapsing late and only just holding on in all three.
Their attack has also left a bit to be desired of late, relying a lot on fluky efforts from kicks to score points. It doesn't matter how you score tries, but one could be forgiven for suggesting Canberra's recent paths to victory aren't sustainable, especially against higher quality opposition.
As for the Titans, they produced their best performance all season in the game they would've had the best excuse not to, following the abrupt firing of Justin Holbrook earlier in the week. His sacking was deserved; you can't be the coach of a team that consistently blows leads and bleeds points and expect to keep your job, but it is fair to ask questions about the timing, especially considering the Gold Coast are still in a position to make the finals. Time will tell if last week's gutsy upset win over Brisbane is the new normal or an anomaly.
In team news, Josh Papali'I is out for the Raiders due to a hamstring injury, replaced up front by Pasami Saulo with Ata Mariota coming in on the interchange bench.
For the Titans, Tino Faasuamaleaui is back after being rested following state of origin. His inclusion pushes Jaimin Jollife to the interchange bench and brother Iszac out of the 17.
Last meeting: Round 20 2022 - Titans 24 Raiders 36
Who to watch: While I did say the Raiders tries from kicks were fluky earlier, there is no question that the boot of Jamal Fogarty is an asset for the Raiders that can and has been counted on to deliver points for the Green Machine. Looking at last week in isolation, Fogarty's menacing long kicking game resulted in two tries for the Raiders, with James Tedesco being unable to handle his towering bombs as Raiders teammates stormed through and took advantage of their halfbacks huge boot. When Fogarty's kicks weren't leading directly to tries, they were resulting in errors by the Roosters outside backs that put the Raiders in great field position. Coming up against his old club on home soil for the first time, Fogarty will be keen to remind the Titans exactly what they've been missing out on since letting him walk at the end of 2021.
For the Titans, it seems more and more obvious with every passing week that their game plan should mostly revolve around getting David Fifita early ball and seeing what he can do against the opposition halfback and centre. Last week against Brisbane, the Gold Coast didn't really look like scoring in the first half despite a favourable share of possession and field position and were staring down the barrel of heading into the break down 6-0 until Fifita ran a superb line to go through a hole and beat Reece Walsh to make things all square. A few minutes into the second half, Fifita was able to get on the outside of Adam Reynolds and get an offload away for a teammate to score. He finished with the stats of 135 metres gained, a line break, line break assist, try, try assist, nine tackle breaks and two offloads, playing a critical role in the upset.
Favourite: The Raiders are 3.5-point favourites at the time of writing.
My tip: I saw enough from the Titans last week to suggest they may have turned the corner defensively, which is enough for me to pick them against a Raiders side that has struggled to attack in recent weeks. Titans by 8.
