Round 21: Cowboys v Eels preview
Two teams that played in last year's preliminary finals face off once again, but this time with far more question marks than the last time they met.
For North Queensland, the main concern is that the current form the team is in is not sustainable and may desert the Cowboys when they need it most. That though is at least a problem for coach Todd Payten to worry about if North Queensland even qualifies for the finals. After all, the Cowboys have to make it there in the first place.
Given the way they started this season it was quickly starting to look like the success of last season was an outlier and not indicative of what was to come for 2022's biggest surprise packets. But more recently the Cowboys have rediscovered the defensive steel and grit that took them to those same heights in the first place, conceding just 14 points in their past three games. Eight of those points came in last week's 19-8 victory over Manly, a hardly convincing win but two valuable points nonetheless as the team's Origin contingent backed up once again - not that they had much choice anyway.
"I'd like to but we are not in a position to do so after our first half of the year," coach Payten said when asked if he considered resting any of the team's Origin stars.
"We will rest our players this week. They aren't due back until our captains run on Friday and we play Parra on the Saturday so they will get the rest of the week off. They deserve it."
Parramatta could certainly learn a thing or two from the way North Queensland has rebuilt its season, currently in a similar position where finals are the expectation but hardly guaranteed at this point. Rather, it is widely being tipped that the Eels and Cowboys could be dueling it out for the final spot in the top eight this year - placing even greater importance on Saturday's game. After suffering an early season slump of its own Parramatta has rebounded to win six of its past seven matches, including last week's 25-24 thriller against the Gold Coast. The problem for the Eels is they may score plenty of points but they are also guilty of conceding plenty in a hurry, even if it comes with the result being beyond doubt.
Take their 48-20 win over the Dolphins. The 42-4 halftime scoreline was a reminder of Parramatta's premiership credentials but what followed in the remaining 40 minutes was also yet another example of the inconsistency and lack of killer instinct that has kept the Eels from reaching their full potential in recent years.
The same goes for last week's victory over the Gold Coast. Like North Queensland, it was a valuable two points for Parramatta but far from the clinical win many were expecting. It came at a cost too with Maika Sivo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard both facing stints on the sideline for their ill-discipline.
Sivo was initially named in Parramatta's 17 for this week's game but failed to have his charge downgraded and will be replaced by either Haze Dunster or Waqa Blake. Ofahiki Ogden, meanwhile, starts for Campbell-Gillard after the Eels front rower pleaded guilty to a dangerous contact charge for leading with knees to the back of the Gold Coast's Chris Randall. There are no changes for North Queensland though, with Payten afforded the luxury of naming the same team that took care of Manly last week.
Last meeting: Round 13 2023 - Eels 24 Cowboys 16
Who to watch: While Sivo is hardly the most dependable defender on the wing, losing him means Parramatta will have to field another new-look combination out wide. That presents an opportunity for Cowboys fullback Scott Drinkwater to continue his scintillating form. Drinkwater has been a big reason for North Queensland's sudden mid-season resurgence, recording 16 try assists and six linebreaks since Round 11. The crafty fullback is one of the best instinctive players in the game, picking his moments to take the line on while also obviously offering a ball-playing option out the back. That unpredictable style Drinkwater adds to North Queensland's attack could cause all kinds of problems, particularly for Parramatta's new edge combination without Sivo.
As for the Eels, if they are to pull apart the competition's most in-form defensive unit, it will come off the back of lock forward J'Maine Hopgood. The former Panther has been a revelation for Parramatta this season, proving he is more than capable of not just playing consistent NRL footy but at big minutes too. The Eels have needed those big minutes from him as well, having battled injuries and now suspensions up front for the majority of the season. While Hopgood's workrate remains one of his greatest assets, his offloading and ball-playing through the middle is also a strength of his and offers much-needed variety to challenge North Queensland's much-improved defence.
Favourite: As the more in-form of the two teams, North Queensland is expected to get the job done.
My tip: The safer pick here is the Cowboys but I'm willing to swim against the tide here and take Parramatta, even if the loss of Campbell-Gillard could prove particularly important. It just feels like the Eels need to win this more, even if their recent form has been relatively strong. Look for the boot of Mitchell Moses to prove the difference too. Eels by 8.
