Round 22: Storm v Eels preview
Finals Threats Look To Bounce Back And Solidify Place In Top Eight
The NRL is having it's closest season since 2018, when only two competition points separated first and eighth. It makes for a superb entertainment product that fans can't get enough of, but for the teams looking to clinch a spot in the finals it makes every game mean that much more, especially when the opposition is also in the midst of the dog fight.
That very scenario will take place this Friday night at Marvel Stadium, where the fourth placed Storm will host the eighth placed Eels in a match that will likely have major ramifications on the table going forward.
Both sides are coming off poor performances that resulted in losses last start, Melbourne and Parramatta each outclassed in 8-point losses to Newcastle and North Queensland respectively.
Much has been made of the Eels tough run home and the likelihood it sees them miss out on finals football just one year after going to the Grand Final, but the Storm are no certainties to qualify for their 13th straight post-season either. In the next three weeks they play the Eels, Panthers and Raiders, all sides they've struggled against in recent years, while also facing a trip to Brisbane to face the Broncos in Round 27. Melbourne, despite currently sitting in the top 4, are only 1.5 games ahead of the 9th placed Rabbitohs, and will need to start winning games again soon to ensure they aren't on the outside looking in come September.
It was a similar story in defeat for both the Storm and Eels last week, both sides narrowly losing the battle in the middle of the field and being unable to hold their opposition out once they got on the front foot in the red zone, with defence among both sets of edge players extremely suspect on multiple occasions.
Each forward pack is missing a key contributor, with Campbell-Gillard still suspended for Parramatta and Asofa-Solomona sidelined with a finger injury for Melbourne. The Eels forward pack named probably has a slight edge over Melbourne's, with Paulo and Hopgood both among the form middles in the competition.
With both sides spines also being up there with the best of them, you get the feeling the game could be decided by in the outside backs. Waqa Blake has retained his spot for Parra despite a diabolical showing last Saturday, while Justin Olam has been dropped and Reimis Smith sidelined with an injury for Melbourne, meaning a new centre pairing of Seve and Tonumaipea will suit up for them.
Last meeting: Round 1 2023 - Eels 12 Storm 16
Who to watch: He's enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign so far this season and deserves to be in the conversation for rookie of the year at the Dally M awards later in the year, but last week Will Warbrick definitely came back down to Earth in the Storm's loss to Newcastle. In a tough one for the young winger, Warbrick finished with just 67 metres from 10 runs as well as 5 tackles made to go with 7 missed. He also made an uncharacteristic error early on, dropping a kick that he would usually swallow in the 16th minute that lead to the Knights' opening try. Despite the poor showing on the defensive side of the ball, he still made four tackle breaks throughout the night, and he's shown enough throughout the season so far to suggest that those kinds of performances are the exception, not the rule. Against an Eels backline that is renowned for it's defensive struggles, look for Warbrick to have a resounding return to form if the Storm are to win this one.
While it's been a mixed season so far for the Eels, it's been anything but for their captain and fullback Clinton Gutherson. I've spoken about him before in this section for Eels games to was hesitant to choose him, but his performance last week in a soundly beaten team simply demanded it. Gutherson finished with 20 runs for 202 metres to go along with a line break, line break assist, two tackle breaks and eight offloads, while also assisting all three of the Eels' tries. They weren't the kind of ticky-tack try assists that show up on the stat sheet but don't take much to pull off either; the first one saw Gutherson demonstrate some slick passing ability to put Sean Russell over, while the next two were almost identical, the King slicing up the middle of the field with nothing much on before finding halfback Mitchell Moses on his inside to finish the job. Gutherson's always had this kind of ability, but in the past has struggled to find it week to week. These days, you can count on him to produce at a high level basically every game, and I don't expect this Friday to be an exception.
Favourite: The Storm are six-point favourites in this one at the time of writing.
My tip: The Storm have the home ground advantage, but I think the Eels forward pack and in particular bench will prove too strong for them in the end, especially in the second half. Eels by 14.
