Round 23: Eels v Dragons preview
Two teams desperate for two very different reasons clash on Sunday night as the Parramatta Eels and St George Illawarra Dragons face off.
For the Eels, they have dropped outside of the top eight and simply have to win this game against the lowly Dragons given their tough run home.
For context, Parramatta closes out its season with games against the Broncos, Roosters and Panthers before pocketing two points courtesy of its third and final bye.
Brisbane and Penrith will obviously present a stern challenge as the league's two frontrunners this season, while the Roosters could even pose a problem if they string a few wins together.
It makes this Sunday's game even more important given it is one Parramatta is expected to win regardless of its recent struggles, highlighted by last week's heavy 46-16 defeat to Melbourne.
The Eels are bolstered by the return of five-eighth Dylan Brown, who pleaded guilty to two charges of sexual touching back in July.
He bumps Daejarn Asi out of the side while another change sees Waqa Blake dropped in place of Isaac Lumelume while Joey Lussick starts at hooker, bumping rookie Brendan Hands out of the 17.
Elsewhere, the Dragons will be without star forward Jack de Belin after he failed to have a dangerous contact charge downgraded at the NRL Judiciary on Tuesday night.
Jack Bird has been named on the extended bench and could be called in to replace de Belin at lock forward, although the versatile 28-year-old has been hampered by an ongoing knee injury recently.
The Dragons have shown flashes of life in recent weeks, toppling the Tigers before going down to the Sea Eagles 24-18 in a tight tussle last Saturday.
Recent head-to-head history between the Dragons and Eels is a cause for concern though, with the Red V losing 10 of their last 13 games against Parramatta.
The Dragons are also yet to win a game away from home this year and now face a daunting trip to CommBank Stadium.
Last meeting: Round 4 2022 - Eels 48 Dragons 14
Who to watch: has to be Dylan Brown for the home side. Eels coach Brad Arthur said after last week's loss to Melbourne that Brown knows he needs to repay his teammates. With Parramatta's finals hopes fast fading away, that needs to come this weekend. Brown is a physical five-eighth with smart, quick decision-making and he should immediately shore up Parramatta's edge defence and that has to be just the start of the impact he makes on Sunday.
If the Dragons are any hope on the weekend they need a strong performance from Blake Lawrie. Even slightly under-strength, Parramatta's forward pack looks far better on paper than that of the Dragons, particularly with de Belin out of the picture. It means the Red V's starting pack, led by Lawrie, will need to try outmuscle the Eels' big men early or risk letting Parramatta getting on a roll. Lawrie has run for over 100 metres in each of his past three games and will need to continue laying a strong platform on Sunday.
Favourite: Despite poor recent form it is the Eels who are expected to take the win.
My tip: With Brown back in the mix and a far superior forward pack, look for the Eels to rebound from last week's reality check against the Storm in style. Parramatta by 30.
