Round 24: Sea Eagles v Panthers preview
Still in the hunt for an unlikely finals berth, the Manly Sea Eagles will need to pull off a miracle on Thursday night if they are to pocket a crucial two points as they welcome the Penrith Panthers to 4 Pines Park.
Manly was thoroughly outclassed by the Roosters 26-16 last week, barely threatening in attack if not for a bit of individual brilliance from Josh Schuster late in that game at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
The Sea Eagles had plenty of chances to pile on the points early in last Thursday's game but instead they looked disconnected, disinterested and largely uninspiring in their choice of set plays.
There was very little variety from the Manly attack without the necessary shape or slicing decoy runs to pose any sort of threat to the opposition defence.
It resulted in a scoreless first half for the Sea Eagles, who will be without Matt Lodge (ACL) as Sean Keppie returns while Ben Trbojevic starts at second row with Kelma Tuilagi shifting to the bench.
History is certainly not in favour of Manly, who have dropped seven-straight games to Penrith with its most recent defeat coming at the foot of the mountains in Round 6 this year.
The Panthers jumped out to a 32-0 lead on that Saturday night, finishing 44-12 winners and a similar scoreline would not surprise on Thursday.
In fact, considering Penrith's recent form, it would not be a shock if the defending premiers only improved on that 32-point victory when they travel to the Northern Beaches this week.
The Panthers have now won six games in a row and 11 of their last 12, with the only loss in that period coming to the Cowboys without all of their Origin stars.
Now, of course, North Queensland was also without a host of big names during that game too but the recent run of form is made even more impressive considering the Cowboys only squeaked past Penrith in golden point.
The Panthers haven't given the Bulldogs, Sharks and Storm much of a sniff in the past three weeks though, winning by 20 or more points to safeguard their spot at the top of the ladder.
And the scary part for Manly fans is the fact Penrith's attack inside the opposition 20 has at times looked clunky and disorganised in those three wins.
All of that is to say the Sea Eagles could be in for a long night.
Although the Panthers, already without Izack Tago (leg) and Spencer Leniu (knee), have also lost both Jarome Luai (illness) and Mitchell Kenny (hamstring).
Jack Cogger and Jack Cole will be in the frame to replace Luai while Luke Sommerton is set to make his NRL debut, likely starting for Kenny with Soni Luke staying put on the bench.
Last Meeting: As mentioned, Penrith was big 44-12 winners earlier this year.
Who to watch: If Manly is to cause any problems on Thursday night it has to start with Haumole Olakau'atu, who has the combination of strength and finesse to keep the Penrith defence guessing. Olakau'atu was one of the few Sea Eagles players that posed a threat in attack last week against the Roosters, running for 132 metres to go with four tackle busts, a linebreak and a try. Getting the ball in Olakau'atu's hands early and seeing what comes of it is one of the only hopes Manly has of making Penrith's edge defence uncomfortable.
As for the Panthers, Lindsay Smith has quickly emerged as a key contributor off the bench after limited opportunities in recent years. Smith, a highly-touted forward coming through the Penrith system, has long been earmarked for the NRL but had to bide his time behind a star-studded pack. However, injuries and the toll of the State of Origin period have presented Smith an opportunity to carve out an important role up front that serves the Panthers well now and into the future. Such is the confidence that coach Ivan Cleary has in Smith that he has been given a starting spot in recent weeks. With Leniu and Jaeman Salmon leaving at the end of the year there will be some key minutes up for grabs in 2024 and Smith has certainly put his hand up to fill the void left by Leniu in particular. Liam Henry is another one to watch in that regard but Smith's high workrate makes him a valuable member of this Panthers team right now.
Favourite: The Panthers are clear favourites to make it seven wins on the trot.
Tip: Manly's attack last Thursday was unimaginative and uninspiring. Penrith's defence, on the other hand, was faultless save for a poor lapse from Linsday Smith. There is still plenty of room for improvement in attack but the Panthers are still piling on the points and the Sea Eagles are still giving them up. This one should be fairly straight-forward, although the losses of Luai and Kenny could make it slightly closer than it otherwise would have been. Panthers by 20.
