Round 24: Rabbitohs v Dragons preview
Dragons Look to Play Spoiler as Souths Face Must Win Scenario
2023 has been gradually turning into the season that got away for the South Sydney Rabbitohs. After Round 11, they were sitting on top of the table with wins over the Panthers, Broncos and Storm on their resume and looking like the team to beat.
Since then, Souths have gone 3-7 in a shocking run of results that has seen them drop to eighth place on the table and having to win at least two of their next three games to ensure their place in the finals. There's no question that when fully fit and in form that Souths can compete for the premiership, but with each new loss it's becoming more and more likely they even come close to getting back where they need to be.
As for the Dragons, they would've been forgiven for phoning it in after Anthony Griffin got the sack earlier this year and again when Ben Hunt made it public that he didn't want to be on the team anymore. It's a testament to interim coach Ryan Carr that, while the wins haven't been there, the Dragons are putting in every week and have come close to snagging an upset win on many occasions, keeping it close against finals contenders the Panthers, Raiders, Sea Eagles and Eels.
With the 2023 season now a lost cause for St George Illawarra, they have the luxury of being able to throw caution to the wind and play like a team with nothing to lose, an attitude which almost and probably should've got them a win on the road against Parramatta last week.
The Rabbitohs aren't travelling much better than the Eels at the moment, so the Dragons will have confidence within their squad that they can at least make it a contest. On the other hand, if Souths lose this game with everything to play for, it's safe to put a line through them for 2023.
In team news, Taane Milne is back on the wing for Souths, replacing Tyrone Munro, while Tom Burgess has been suspended and will be replaced in the front row by Shaq Mitchell. Jacob Host replaces Michael Chee-Kam in the back row in the only other change for the Rabbitohs.
For the Dragons, Lomax and Bird are both injured, meaning a new centre pairing of Suli and Max Feagai has been named. Francis Molo will sit out with a concussion, replaced by brother Michael in the front row, while Ben Murdoch-Masila will start at lock and Zane Musgrove will come off the bench.
Last meeting: Round 15 2023 - Dragons 36 Rabbitohs 30
Who to Watch: Not many (if any) players for Souths can be proud of their performance against the Sharks last Saturday night, but centre Isaiah Tass can feel a little less shame than his teammates for his role in the debacle. Of the four tries Souths conceded, all four were scored by Cronulla on the edge, but only one of them came on Tass' left side, and it took one of the best offloads and steps of the season being executed by the Sharks on the one play. Tass finished the game with 15 runs for 135 metres, a line-break, line-break assist, three tackle breaks and an offload. He also scored a late try to bring the Rabbitohs within 10 points and give them a sniff, but it ultimately wasn't enough. Matched up against a makeshift centre/wing pairing of Max Feagai and Mikaele Ravalawa, look for Tass to have a standout game for the Rabbitohs.
For the Dragons, big Blake Lawrie is having arguably the best season of his career and has become the cornerstone of the Red V forward pack this year. The best part of Lawrie's game has long been the metres and momentum he's able to generate, and this season he's averaging 126 per game, his highest since 2020, but what's really impressive has been the development of other aspects; in 18 games so far this year he has made 37 tackle breaks. For context, the next highest total for his career was 26, which he made in 21 games back in 2021. His tackle efficiency for the year is also up around 94%, again his highest figure since 2020. With Francis Molo and Jack De Belin both out due to injury, Lawrie is going to need to produce one of the performances of his career if the Dragons are to cause an upset on the weekend.
Favourite: The Rabbitohs are 18.5-point favourites at the time of writing.
Tip: I think Souths will win just because of how much it means to their season, but the Dragons won't be easybeats. Souths by 10.
