Round 27: Rabbitohs v Roosters preview
Finals come early as old foes fight it out for a top eight spot
Before the start of the season, not many would've been surprised had they been told that the Rabbitohs and the Roosters would be playing out a hugely consequential match in the month of September.
Fast forward nine months and the pre-season masses have been proven correct, but not in the way they would've expected. The loser of Friday's grudge match will sensationally miss the top eight to cap off a disastrous season when compared with expectations, while the winner all but guarantee themselves a chance to salvage what will still be looked back on as an extremely poor campaign.
The ramifications of this game are made even more unbelievable when you consider where both sides, particularly the Rabbitohs, have been on the ladder earlier this season. After Round 10, Souths had just taken care of business against a lowly Tigers outfit to sit in first place. To say the wheels have fallen off since then would be an understatement; if they are to lose to the Roosters, they will become the first ever team leading the competition after 11 rounds to miss the finals series.
For the Roosters, it's been almost an entirely different story. At no point this season have they looked close to being the premiership contenders they were considered as pre-season, and the fact they were sitting in the bottom 4 just seven weeks ago should tell you all you need to know about the quality of footy they were playing. Since then, they have (kind of) gotten it together. The Roosters have won 5 of their last 6 games by an average margin of 18 points, however none of the victories have come against current top eight teams, while the one loss was a walloping at the hands of likely minor premiers the Broncos.
While no-one should be getting ahead of themselves and considering the Roosters a dark horse for the title, it can't be denied that their attack has turned a corner. Prior to round 20, they were the only team in the competition to not have scored 30 points or more in a game but have since done so 4 times. Their defence has also improved, going from 22.5 points conceded per game through 20 rounds to just 16.6 from Rounds 21-26.
While the Roosters turnaround has coincided with a relatively easy run home, those kinds of stats should still be of great concern to the Rabbitohs, who have seldom looked like a top eight team let alone a premiership contender since Round 11. Last year, they were able to put their average mid-season form behind them almost immediately once Latrell Mitchell returned, and you can't help but wonder if this caused some complacency within Souths' playing group who may have thought that the same thing would happen again. Well, it hasn't. Since Mitchell's return, the Rabbitohs have gone 2-2, with two unconvincing wins to bottom 3 teams and two big losses to top eight teams. A late brain fade from the superstar fullback against Newcastle means he will miss this game through suspension. Souths have also been dealing with a flurry of off-field distractions of late, and it's fair to wonder whether they will continue to affect the team's performance, especially in such a critical game.
The Roosters will also be without a polarising international because of suspension, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves copping a 7-week ban at the judiciary on Tuesday night. They do however regain James Tedesco from a head-knock, while Joey Manu has been named to play despite picking up a hamstring injury against the Tigers.
Last meeting: Round 3 2023 - Roosters 20 Rabbitohs 18
Who to watch: During Souths' period of contention over the last 4 or 5 years, Cameron Murray has always been a player you could count on for a very good performance at worst and a game changing performance at best. It's earned him the reputation as one of the best lock forwards in the game, however the Rabbitohs' recent slide has seen him have one of his worst 7 or 8 week stretches of his career. In the first 11 weeks of the season, Murray was only missing 1.5 tackles per game, a number which has more than doubled to 3.14 since round 17. He also struggled with ball in hand last start against Newcastle, running 17 times for only 105 metres. Obviously Murray is still a superstar and his bad games are better than a lot of players' best games, but the Rabbitohs will need him to get back to the form we all know he's capable of if they are to not only beat the Roosters but also make some noise in the finals.
For the Roosters, it hasn't been at all surprising to see Joseph Suaalii's best football come when Trent Robinson finally conceded that the centre experiment wasn't working and put him back into his preferred right-wing position. During the opening parts of the season, Suaalii was basically a non-factor, as playing at centre meant that the threat he provided in the air as well as on kick returns coming out of yardage was minimised. He also struggled to adapt defensively, with the Roosters edge defence being among the worst in the competition. Since returning to the wing though, Suaalii has reminded everyone of the talent he possesses and probably eased some concerns over at Rugby Union headquarters. Kicking high to him while inside the opposition has once again become a focal point of the Roosters attack, a strategy which will force Souths winger Alex Johnston to be on his A-game for the entire night.
Favourite: After opening as a pick'em game, the Rabbitohs have moved into slight favouritism at the time of writing.
My tip: This game could easily go either way, but I'll go with the Roosters just because they're in better form at the moment. Roosters by 7.
