Series: PREVIEW: 2023 State of Origin II
The New South Wales Blues face the daunting prospect of heading to Suncorp Stadium in an attempt to level the series after losing to the Queensland Maroons by eight points in Game I in Adelaide.
It's a venue where the Blues have won just seven times in the 27 Origin games that Suncorp Stadium has hosted since its redevelopment in the early 2000s. This record, combined with the improvements that New South Wales must make before Game II results in this being on of the greatest challenges the state will ever face in the Origin arena.
In Game I, the Blues were stale in attack and poor defensively, hardly the recipe to winning games of football. They dominated possession for large periods throughout the match, yet failed to turn it into points, just like their opponents did so successfully with their creative ad-lib style of footy. Not only this, but the Blues missed a chance in the final 10 minutes when Thomas Flegler was sent to the sin-bin, as Queensland scored two tries against the run of play to run away with a historic victory.
As a result, the Blues have been required to make some changes to their team. Nicho Hynes and Tevita Pangai Junior have been dropped from the 17, whilst Apisai Koroisau and Nathan Cleary miss out with injuries. Their replacements, Reece Robson (debut), Stefano Utoikamanu (debut), Damien Cook and Mitchell Moses have plenty of work to do before arguably the biggest game of their respective careers. The addition of Moses and Cook in stead for Cleary and Koroisau may force the Blues to move away from their Penrith-centric style of play which could work in their favour.
This is how they've addressed Origin football in recent times, and it has become all too predictable for the Queensland defence, as seen in Game I. The two will bring something different to the Blues style of play, however, it'll be a highly pressurised environment, especially for Moses who has only represented New South Wales on one previous occasion.
Robson and Utoikamanu will make their debuts in the toughest of situations. Robson has been excellent for the Cowboys ever since joining the club in 2020 and Utoikamanu has had his best season to date with the Wests Tigers, averaging 114 run metres per game.
On the Maroon side of things, Queensland will look to emulate the grit and determination that won them the opening game of the series, and with a vocal crowd behind them in Brisbane, they'll be confident they can do so.
The halves pairing of Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster will thrive in the conditions and will look to close out the series before heading down to Sydney for Game III. They were both influential in Queensland's ability to conjure tries from nothing in Game I and they were the more potent side by a long way. Not only that, but the defence of the Queenslanders was outstanding, with multiple try saving tackles keeping them in the contest.
Queensland would've liked to have taken the same side in, but injuries to Jai Arrow, Selwyn Cobbo and Tom Gilbert have forced their hand. However, their replacements are no schmucks. Moeaki Fotuaika, Xavier Coates and Jeremiah Nanai come into the side, all three with prior Origin experience.
Billy Slater will have his side trying to replicate their performance from last year's decider, a 10-point win, and the best way to do that is to channel the Queensland crowd into their football on the field. It would be more than delight for the Maroons to win a successive series against the Blues in Brisbane.
Last Time They Met: Origin I - Queensland 26 def. 18 New South Wales
Players to Watch:
I think it's worth looking at two players who will go a long way to deciding how this game will turn out. For New South Wales, the captain James Tedesco will be determined to right the wrongs of Game I and guide the Blues to a victory in Brisbane. Tedesco is a proper Origin player and thrives in the arena, averaging a whopping 213 run metres per game in his 20-game career. The fullback's 2023 form hasn't been as exceptional as his previous seasons, however, since that first Origin game, Tedesco has scored three tries in two matches for the Roosters, broken 17 tackles and run for 347 metres. Tedesco had a chance or two to assist a try in the series opener, but failed to grab the opportunity, something which he'll no doubt be kicking himself for.
For Queensland, it's none other than Cameron Munster, who started the play for their go-ahead try in the opening game of the series. For the Storm this season, Munster has scored six, assisted eight tries and has featured in every Storm win this season, they haven't won without him this year. The 2020 Wally Lewis Medallist is built for the Origin arena and has that incredible knack of create something out of absolutely nothing. Twice has the five-eighth been named a State of Origin man of the match winner and if Queensland seal the series, he won't be far from another. After missing Game III last year with COVID-19, the 28-year-old will be licking his lips at the prospect of playing in front of a Queensland crowd for the first time in two years.
Favourite: Queensland are the favourites for this clash and it's not surprising one bit. Firstly, they knocked off the Blues in Game I despite defending on their own line for majority of the game. Secondly, they have a tremendous record at Suncorp Stadium, having won five of the last six Origin matches at the ground and finally, the Blues have only won one deciding match at the venue since it's redevelopment, and that day they had Andrew Johns wearing the seven.
My Tip: The Blues face the toughest task in rugby league and whilst the changes may make a difference, facing Queensland in Brisbane with the series on the line is something the state has only succeed at once in the last 20 years. The Queensland crowd will be buzzing and so will the players. Queensland by four points.
