Round 8: Cowboys v Panthers preview
Are the North Queensland Cowboys legitimate contenders or was their early-season form the product of a favourable draw?
Well, last week's 42-6 thumping at the hands of Cronulla seems to suggest the latter, although a stern test against the defending premiers this Saturday should give a resounding answer.
The Cowboys travel back up north this week sitting on the fringe of the top eight and while they have four wins to their name, the only one of real note came against the Dolphins, who have emerged as early season surprise packets.
Otherwise, North Queensland has two wins against the lowly Knights and Titans along with a 46-24 victory over a Dragons team that is starting to breathe fire but was incredibly inconsistent to open 2024.
Coach Todd Payten said at last Sunday's post-game press conference that he would "absolutely" consider making changes, although there wasn't a major shake-up on Tuesday when he named his team to take on the Panthers.
There are a few changes up front though, with Griffin Neame starting and bumping Jason Taumalolo to the bench while Thomas Mikaele is the new face on the interchange in place of Jack Gosiewski.
The Panthers, meanwhile, haven't exactly looked consistent in recent weeks as they finished strong to down the Tigers 22-6 last week.
But, for the first time this year, Penrith will field a full-strength side against North Queensland as Nathan Cleary and Taylan May return in a big boost for Ivan Cleary's side.
Cleary's return bumps Brad Schneider out of the team while May is also a straight replace for Paul Alamoti, who impressed with a try on club debut in the win last Saturday.
Last meeting: Round 27 2023 - Panthers 44 Cowboys 12
Who to watch: If there is one thing the Panthers have consistently struggled to defend against it is fast five-eighths with a strong running game. Just look at the success Ezra Mam had burning Penrith's edge defence in the grand final last year. With that in mind, if the Cowboys are any hope of pulling off an upset it will come off the back of co-captain Tom Dearden's running game. He already burned the Panthers with his pace in the golden point win up north last year and will again be a threat every time he touches the ball, especially when you consider the strike players the Cowboys have outside of him on both edges. Having those passing options only opens up more room for Dearden to thrive.
As for Penrith, this seems like the kind of game where Izack Tago could continue to build his case for a State of Origin debut. Tago excels in space given his tackle-busting ability and the Cowboys opened up with ease last week against the Sharks. It wasn't an isolated occurrence either, with only the Rabbitohs conceding more points than the Cowboys so far this season. North Queensland leaks plenty of metres after contact and that is where Tago really shines, either getting clear of defenders with fends or using his leg drive to fight for more yardage.
Favourite: Penrith is well-backed to make it two on the trot.
My tip: If there was no Nathan Cleary, the Cowboys may actually be in with a shot given Penrith's uninspiring attack. If there is one thing North Queensland can do it is score points and should Payten's men get on top early on Saturday they are one of the best teams in the league playing from in front. But the loss to Manly seems to be more of a defensive aberration than anything for the Panthers, who should be too clinical with Cleary back steering the ship. Penrith by 18.
