Round 11: Raiders v Bulldogs preview
2024 Surprise Packets to Wave Their Wands and get Magic Round Underway
If you took in the outside noise heading into season 2024, it's fair to say not much was expected of the Green Machine nor the boys from Belmore, with the former tipped to take a step back following a surprise top 8 berth and the latter still deemed at least a season away from any significant improvements.
Fast forward to May and even the biggest cynics in Rugby League would consider that both sides are at least an outside chance of making the finals. The Raiders have maintained their scrappy identity of years past and are more than happy to take games into the trenches if that's what's needed to win, while the Bulldogs defence has become an elite unit, conceding just 17.22 points per game, a number good for third in the competition only behind frontrunners the Panthers and Sharks.
The two respective coaches of these sides deserve a lot of credit for how their teams are faring so far. Ricky Stuart, for all his flaws, always gets close to 100% out of his playing group, their unlikely 20-point comeback win over Manly two weeks ago without halfback Jamal Fogarty the newest addition to the mounting evidence of this.
After a disastrous first year in which his team had statistically by far the worst defence in the comp, there were justified questions over whether Ciraldo was the man to turn things around in Belmore. Those questions are no more with the improvement the team has shown so far; they've already won more than half the games they did last year and in basically every loss there has been a positive to take out of it, be it only conceding 16-points to the defending premiers away last week or leading the high flying Storm until the 77th minute in Melbourne.
There are games this weekend that will generate more media attention, but this one has the potential to be the most entertaining. In theory, the Bulldogs defence should be more than enough to get them the victory against a gallant but undermanned Raiders side, however that doesn't account for the fact that the Raiders have never been able to be explained by mere theory.
In team news, the Raiders are boosted by the return of veteran fullback Jordan Rapana, who comes in as a straight swap for Albert Hopoate. There are no other personell changes, however Papali'I has been named to start for Emre Guler in a change that could easily be reversed come late mail time.
The Bulldogs are 1-17 from the side that narrowly lost to Penrith last week in yet another welcome sign of stability for the club.
Last meeting: Round 25 2023 - Raiders 36 Bulldogs 24
Who to watch: When Jamal Fogarty went down in the first half against Brisbane a few weeks ago, many pundits were quick to write of the Raiders hopes for a top 8 finish considering how important he has been to their attack, and after a disastrous 40-point home loss to the Sharks and the opening half an hour against Manly which saw the down 20-0, the pundits were looking vindicated. Enter Kaeo Weekes. Granted, it was Elliott Whitehead who played the starring role in the comeback, but the 21-year-old halfback pulled all the right reins against his former club and in doing so instilled some hope in Raiders fans that maybe this period without their star playmaker won't be as bad as originally advertised. Weekes was there in support for Whitehead's first intercept and streaked away to get Canberra on the board before halftime, but his most impressive play came with 15 minutes to go down by six. Ball in hand on the second tackle, Weekes noticed Manly fullback Tom Trbojevic racing up out of the line to put pressure on him and had the wherewithal to realise in the moment that this meant the backfield was empty and put in an early kick for Nick Cotric, which saw the veteran winger score the try. It's those type of eyes up plays that the Raiders are going to need more of from the young half if they are to continue holding the fort down without Fogarty.
With state of origin just around the corner and every NSW half option seemingly succumbing to injury, there's no reason Matt Burton can't put himself firmly in the frame for an origin recall with another couple of strong performances before the teams are selected. Whenever the Bulldogs are struggling, Burton receives much of the blame, with critics calling for him to move back to the centres, the position he won a grand final in for Penrith a few years ago. The critics can't have their cake and eat it too though, so Burton must also be given credit where it's due; he has been one of Canterbury's best players this year and is a huge reason for their resurgence to the middle of the ladder. The knock on Burton was/is that there will be periods he drifts out of games, not doing enough to get himself involved and stamp his authority on the result. This year, he has started playing both sides of the ruck more often, which in turn has opened up more attacking opportunities for Canterbury as defences are less sure of what will be thrown at them. Last week against his old club, Burton had 13 runs for 100 metres, a line break, line break assist, 6 tackle breaks, an offload and a late try to keep the door slightly ajar for an ultimately doomed comeback bid. Against a Raiders side which has been known to leak points around the edges, look for Burton to have another big one on Friday.
Favourite: The Bulldogs are 3.5-point favourites at the time of writing.
My tip: This might be the hardest game of the round to pick. I'll lean Raiders by 4 because of their extra rest leading up to the contest.
