Round 12: Raiders v Roosters preview
Time for the Roosters to make a defensive claim against resilient Raiders
After the whirlwind that was Magic Round, the NRL is back to regular programming with a top-eight clash in the nation's capital on Saturday afternoon. Following an outstanding victory against the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs, the Canberra Raiders leapfrogged the Sydney Roosters into sixth spot following the latter's narrow loss to the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks on Saturday. Now the two are set to face-off in an important clash as the season nears the halfway point.
It's incredible that the Raiders are still in the top eight, despite running a halves combination of Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weekes who have a combined 26 games of NRL experience. Neither can make a claim as a genuine halfback either, which was the main concern regarding the Raiders after Jamal Fogarty's unfortunate injury in Round 7. However, in the three games since, the Raiders have knocked off Manly and Canterbury whilst losing to league leaders Cronulla back in Round 8. It's an utter testament to the work that Ricky Stuart and his side have done to maintain their position in the top eight spots. Their victory over the weekend was a microcosm for what this team represents and how bloody resilient they are. Leading 12 points to six after the half hour mark, Jordan Rapana was sent to the sin bin. Canterbury scored immediately and just before the break Josh Papalii joined his teammate in the bin. The Raiders trailed by two points and were down to 11 men. When Kiraz scored straight after the break and took Canterbury's lead to eight points, it seemed all but over for Stuart and his men. However, the Raiders fought back and two tries to Origin hopeful, Hudson Young, gave the ‘green machine' a lead which they wouldn't relinquish. This was against a Canterbury side who are much improved on previous iterations and are one of the most defensively sound teams in the competition. On Saturday, they face a task of a greater difficulty. The Raiders grittiness and defiance must be on full show when they take on the Roosters, and if not, there's a very real possibility that Sydney could rack up a cricket score. That task will be tougher with the absence of Papalii, who was suspended for his hip-drop tackle over the weekend. His replacement, Peter Hola faces a monumental challenge in his first appearance of the season.
Despite losing to Cronulla on Saturday, the Roosters have been in electric form over the past four weeks. The tricolours have scored 168 points in their last four outings, boast the best attack in the competition and seemingly have entered the premiership contender conversation. The main argument against that case is the fact they've lost to Penrith, Melbourne, and Cronulla, all teams that will likely be alive in the latter stages of the competition. Question marks can be raised regarding the Roosters defence, having failed to keep a team under 18 points since their 48-6 victory over South Sydney in Round 3. Their lethal attack can take them deep into the season, but as the Sharks showed on Saturday, if they can't stop the opposition from scoring it may not matter how good they are with the ball in hand. It's not that their defence is awful - they concede 19.91 points per game, placing them eighth in the league - it's just not as good as the better teams in the competition who hover between 15-18 points conceded per game. Those few points can make the difference, especially come finals time when matches are closer, and the pressure is ramped up. This is as good a time as any to prove to themselves that they have the defensive capabilities to match the best teams in the competition. Despite Canberra's ladder position, they aren't an incredibly explosive side, and if the Roosters want to go far in 2024, they need to display the defensive resilience to shut down the Raiders. Point scoring shouldn't be of much a concern for the Roosters on Saturday, as gritty and determined as the Raiders are, their two recent losses came at the hands of Brisbane and Cronulla who have both been electric in attack. It makes for an interesting contrast in styles, the flash and superstar power of the Roosters and the grimy, hardnosed, determination of the Raiders.
To make matters tougher for the Raiders, Joey Manu returns from concussion at the expense of Junior Pauga. Whilst Nat Butcher and Connor Watson are both out, the latter through injury, with Sandon Smith joining the bench and Victor Radley and Naufahu Whyte starting at second row and lock respectively.
Last meeting: Round 17 2023 - Roosters 18 Raiders 20
Who to watch: With Origin only weeks away, there is a fascinating battle in the backrow this weekend. Two New South Wales Origin hopefuls, Angus Crichton and Hudson Young go head-to-head in what may be their last audition for a spot in Michael Maguire's side. Firstly, Crichton has returned to career best form over the past month. Following his struggles with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder in early 2023, the 28-year-old has arguably named himself in Maguire's team following some explosive performances that have seen him score five tries over the past four weeks. Crichton hasn't played for the Blues since 2022 but is set to make his return as the tackle busting, damaging backrower we all know.
Finally, Young, who was dropped after Game II last year in what was a rabble of series by then-coach Brad Fittler, hasn't let his mismanagement get the best of him. The 25-year-old was one of the Raiders best last year and is making the same claim in 2024. Young was as influential as ever in his side's victory over the Bulldogs last week, scoring the last two tries to ensure the Raiders secured a four-point victory. In 10 appearances this season, the backrower has scored six tries and is averaging a career-high 122 run metres per game.
Favourite: The Roosters are heavily favoured heading into this clash and for good reason. Their attack is on fire at the moment, evident by the 168 points scored over the past four weekends. The Raiders are tough opponents but on paper are thoroughly outmatched.
My tip: Ricky Stuart will have his Raiders fired up for this battle against his former club, but how long they can hold off this Roosters attack is the big question. Expect a physical start, however, the Roosters should find holes in the Raiders defence. Roosters by 16.
