Round 18: Broncos v Panthers preview
It's a Grand Final rematch but the stakes are vastly different this time.
We arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night with plenty of issues to contend with for both clubs. For the hosts and 2023 runners-up Brisbane, it's injury after injury and a form slump that has seen them plummet out of the eight and now looking like a long shot at a top four berth that seemed possible - if not likely - just a month ago.
Adam Reynolds is still some weeks away from a return that would stabilise the Broncos' gameplay - a revolving door of halves options since his injury not helping a Broncos spine lay a platform for a side decimated by injury and rep duty.
The news is good for both sides on the returnee front this week though. The hosts will welcome back Origin trio Reece Walsh, Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, who were all missing for the thoroughbreds' trip across to Auckland. That 32-16 loss was Brisbane's fourth in a row and now leaves them without a victory since they pipped Manly in Magic Round nearly two months ago.
There is some shift in the teamsheet for Brisbane in addition to the returning Origin stars, with Kotoni Staggs (personal reasons) out of the 17.
Mariner moves to centre with Oates returning from injury on the wing. Gosiewski and Baker both drop out for the Origin players returning, but both sustained injuries and would have been omitted regardless.
Penrith meanwhile, are at risk of losing touch with competition leaders Melbourne. Falling at home to the Cowboys last Saturday, the reigning champs were also missing the bulk of their Origin contingent, with only lock Isaah Yeo backing up from the Blues' big win in Melbourne the Wednesday before.
While not as bad as Brisbane's recent run, the Origin period has been somewhat brutal for the Panthers, who have recorded losses to mid-table sides North Queensland and St George Illawarra, while accounting for sides battling for spots like Newcastle and Manly in the same month.
The premiers welcome back Edwards, To'o., Luai and Martin, with Yeo set to start after being benched last weekend.
Schneider, Patea, Toelau and McLean all make way with Henry and Laurie on the bench.
Last meeting: Round 3 2024 - Panthers 34 Broncos 12
Who to watch: Just 9 days after Origin II and only 12 days ahead of the third game, the Origin fullbacks are set to meet once more. Dylan Edwards has been in elite form for the best part of three seasons now and shone on the rep stage last Wednesday. His return to the Penrith teamsheet is much-needed after they lacked impact in the loss to North Queensland.
Walsh has only played a single game since being knocked out cold in Origin I - that of course being Origin II - so it's hard to get a read on where his head is currently at. The Sua'ali'i tackle would no doubt have shaken him up and after a disappointing performance in the second contest, he'll want to up his confidence with a big performance against the Panthers here.
Favourite: Penrith have the comfortable backing from the bookmakers on Friday.
My tip: All signs point to Penrith but that could just be the reason we see Brisbane get up. The Broncos have a knack of getting up off the canvas when the odds are stacked against them - much like this week. The inclusion of Walsh, Carrigan and Haas to lift the hosts to a surprising home win. Broncos by 2.
