Round 18: Wests Tigers v Storm preview
Will the Tigers crash?
Clever heading that, because it has two meanings you see. There's the obvious one, that is, will the Tigers crash under the relentless effectiveness of the Melbourne Storm, as they have done in all of their last 6 contests, which has seen Melbourne win all 6 with a combined score of 218-94 (or an average score of 36-15)?
The Storm come into this game having now won 4 straight matches since the bye and now sit atop the Premiership ladder. The first three of those wins were not very Melbourne-y, in that they conceded a lot of points each time: beating Newcastle 36-28, Warriors 38-24 and Dolphins 30-24 - but last week in the miserly Melbourne weather, they were more like the Storm we've grown accustomed to, beating Canberra 16-6.
Scoring points hasn't been an issue for the Storm in 2024, reaching 30 in a game in 7 matches already, however their defence has been far from acceptable for coach Craig Bellamy, one would imagine, conceding 20+ points in a game on 9 occasions.
Now the other crash, is whether the Wests Tigers will crash the Storm party? And here's why there's some substance to that question. Melbourne have played at 43 venues in the NRL and World Club Challenge and have a 41% or better success rate at 35 of those grounds.
And none of those 35 venues are Leichhardt Oval. Nope. Leichhardt is an outlier for the Storm. They've played 15 NRL games there for just 6 wins. They won their first ever visit to the ground in 1998 against Balmain, lost to the OG Tigers the following year. Then won in 2005 (after 4 losses prior), won back-to-back games in 2011-12 (after 3 losses prior) and have won their last 2 games in 2016-17 (after 2 losses prior).
The Storm have never won 3 straight at Leichhardt.
The Tigers had a second short-lived rally before the Roosters demolished them as per usual last week. Defensively the Tigers are markedly improved. Parramatta, Titans and Souths have all conceded more points per game thus far and the Raiders are less than half a point per game better than the Tigers in defence in 2024. The Tigers attack though is meek at best and in that area, they are comfortably last.
This week the Tigers will see Solomona Faataape move from the wing to replace Brent Naden at centre. Charlie Staines will fill the wing vacancy. John Bateman will move from the bench into the back row, replacing Reuben Porter who drops out of the 17. Heath Mason fills the opening on the bench.
For the Storm, they will be without the injured Xavier Coates, whose place will be filled by Kane Bradley. Ryan Papenhuyzen returns to the fullback role, pushing excitement machine Sualauvi Fa'alogo to the bench. Trent Loiero and Nelson Asofa-Solomona will switch places with the former moving to Lock and the latter to the bench.
Last meeting: Round 16 2023 - Wests Tigers 6 Storm 28
Who to watch: Sualauvi Fa'alogo coming off the bench against some weary defenders could be a recipe for disaster for the Tigers. Also watch for Bronson Garlick to feed crash balls to Nelson Asofa-Solomona when he's the lead runner close to the Tigers line. For the Tigers, John Bateman and Alex Seyfarth have been disappointing with their form of late and need to return some of that faith that has been shown them to keep them in the Tigers 17. Bateman needs to run straighter and Seyfarth needs to keep out of the sin bin.
FAVOURITE: Obviously the Storm. Their attack hasn't been too severely impacted in recent weeks with the impacts of injuries and origin, but their defensive structures have broken down a few times, which has resulted in those high scoring games that they've won of late. Tigers simply lack experience, but they don't lack in the effort department anymore.
MY TIP: Storm to win here but they'll do it the hard way and find a way to keep the Tigers somewhat in the match for far longer than they otherwise should. Storm by 16.
