Round 25: Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles preview
Will Brooks BBQ some big cats?
This weeks NRL action kicks off on Thursday night at Leichhardt Oval with two sides eager to win, for vastly different reasons. Manly needs to win purely to stay in front of the Cowboys on the ladder, who will be gifted 2 points for doing nothing this week. While the Tigers, fresh off a win last weekend, and with a bye in hand, will effectively see a win here as giving them 4 competition points, which they desperately want so as to give Parramatta something they've made a habit of collecting throughout their history - wooden spoons.
Manly have won their last 6 straight games against the Tigers (since 2021), however when it comes to playing the Tigers at Leichhardt Oval, the Tigers have won the last 4 clashes (2014, 2016, 2017 & 2019) and overall, 7 of their 9 bouts at the eighth wonder. Manly won their last game at Leichhardt, which was against the Roosters during the 2020 season, and a win here would mean the first time they've won back-to-back games at the venue since the three in a row they won from 1992-1997.
Manly's 2024 campaign has been awfully stop-start, never getting on a roll of more than 3 weeks of strong performances at a time. And given they come into this match having won their last two games, their form line this year suggests they're due a loss. After belting the Raiders in Round 23, Manly were somewhat more subdued in their 24-10 win over the struggling Warriors last weekend.
For the Sea-Eagles, they'll be without former Tiger Tommy Talau. His place in the centres will be filled by Toluta'u Koula. Karl Lawton returns and will slot into the back row, pushing Ben Trbojevic to the bench.
The Tigers last weekend secured their 5th win for the year. A feat they failed to achieve in 2022 and 2023. They also went past the 400 points scored for the year, which they also failed to achieve in the previous two seasons. Defensively though, they can either keep their last 2 opponents (Manly and Parramatta) to a combined score of 10 points or less and be better than their previous 3 seasons, or they can let in a combined total of 83 points or more to have their worst defensive season ever. One might think conceding an average of 42 points in 2 games is a bit high, but given the 11 games prior to last weeks win saw the Tigers concede an average of 38.4 points per game, well…
The Tigers wins have all come in pairs in 2024 and a win last week suggests they're due here. However there's been some changes, again, for the beleaguered Tigers. Winger Luke Laulilii is out, replaced by Solomon Alaimalo. Junior Tupou replaces Adam Doueihi at centre, while Latu Fainu comes onto the bench.
Last meeting: Round 27 2023 - Sea Eagles 54 Wests Tigers 12
Who to watch: This will be the first time Luke Brooks will be at Leichhardt Oval since the Tigers destroyed the Cowboys there last year, he's been solid and reliable all year for Manly, relishing his role of playing freely besides a world class halfback.
Heath Mason was brilliant last weekend at fullback for the Tigers, safe as houses fielding kicks and chiming into the backline nicely when needed. He also looks to be cool under pressure and has plenty of pace.
The favourite: Manly should get the biscuits here. Surely….surely…..Tigers are a chance though. Manly need to remain numbered up on the left edge and that should almost be enough to keep the Tigers scoring to an absolute minimum. The game should then fall Manly's way.
My tip: Wests Tigers could very well sneak home with a narrow win here. However the smart money would likely be on a comfortable win for the Silvertails. Manly by 18.
